NFL Combine

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by gunn

17 to 8 over the last 5 years
19 to 7 in the 5 years prior to that
Combined 36 to 15 over the past 10 years

I can interpret that to mean that there haven't been very many 1st round talented Safety prospects to choose from. So, that would make them a rare find and highly valuable. The 8 that were chosen over the last 5 years have been pretty good. Perhaps we should take a look at how many Pro-Bowls those 8 have gone to compared to the 17 CBs. Just a thought.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I can interpret that to mean that there haven't been very many 1st round talented Safety prospects to choose from. So, that would make them a rare find and highly valuable. The 8 that were chosen over the last 5 years have been pretty good. Perhaps we should take a look at how many Pro-Bowls those 8 have gone to compared to the 17 CBs. Just a thought.

I would never say a team shouldn't draft a safety in the first round. My point was that many fans overvalue the safety position, especially FS, compared to how GM's value the position. and that I think the GM's are right.

Another interesting thing to look at in the last ten drafts is how many times a safety was drafted before any cornerbacks were off the board. I think you will find that in most years a CB is the first to go. Another thing to look at is the average salary of the top 5 safeties in the league compared to the top five CB's.

I'm a big advocate of drafting for need in the first round. If I were a GM and my team was in good shape at DE,QB,CB,LT, and WR, then I might start looking at a safety if I needed one.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

I'm a big advocate of drafting for need in the first round.

Hmm, we no longer have anything to discuss. There is too much money involved in a first round pick to miss the mark by reaching for a player to fill a need. I understand wanting the 1st round rookie to come in and start and the easiest way for that to happen is by drafting a position of need. However, if the player is talented enough, you may find it hard to keep him on the bench. We will just have to agree to disagree.

[Blitzwood]

Originally Posted by Roy P

There is too much money involved in a first round pick to miss the mark by reaching for a player to fill a need.

see Duane Brown

[Bigtinylittle]

From what I understand, the Texans are happy with that pick. They had a desperate need and filled it the best they could.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Blitzwood

see Duane Brown

The team may be happy with Duane Brown, but while they filled a need, they could have drafted DeSean Jackson or Ray Rice. I'm not saying the Jeremy Zuttah would have been a better LT, but I'd have felt fine moving Pitts back to LT if I had Ray Rice running behind him. However, we have a "need" filled. What is ironic is, we were able to pass on Michael Oher to draft Brian Cushing the next draft. If Cushing and Oher had both left school early and had been in the previous draft, I'd be willing to wager that Oher would have been the Texan.

[Blitzwood]

For the record, I thought it was a huge reach to take him in the first round. But I believe it was Gibbs who really wanted him so who am I to argue. Also, I believe we didn't have another pick until the 3rd round.

It was definitely to fill a need versus BPA.

BTW, Matt Forte would have looked good in Battle Red on Sundays.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

From what I understand, the Texans are happy with that pick. They had a desperate need and filled it the best they could.

And they are publicly going to go say Duane is a reach? Not going to happen.

[Nconroe]

Duane was what, the eighth OT drafted in 2008. For sure a pick of need at the time. Seems to be working out ok since Texans had no. 1 ranked passing offense in 2009, perhaps after two years looks like not a reach. in 2008 had no 13 rushing offense. Duane Brown was faster in 40 and slightly heavier than all guys taken above him I think.

Pick # NFL Team Player Position College
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long Offensive tackle Michigan
Miam no 20 passing offense, 15 TD, 34 sacks, 198 yds/gm, no 4 rush
12 Denver Broncos Ryan Clady Offensive tackle Boise State
Denver no 13 passing offense, 21 TD, 34 sacks, 223 yds/gm, no 18 rush
14 Chicago Bears Chris Williams Offensive tackle Vanderbilt
Chicago no 17 passing offense, 27 TD, 35 sacks, 217 yds/gm, no 29 rush
15 Kansas City Chiefs Branden Albert Offensive tackle Virginia
Kansad City no 25 passing offense 18 TD, 45 sacks, 183 yds/gm, no 11 rush
17 Detroit Lions Gosder Cherilus Offensive tackle Boston College
Detroit no 21 passing offense 16 TD , 43 sacks, 198 yds/gm, no 24 rush
19 Carolina Panthers Jeff Otah Offensive tackle Pittsburgh
Carolina no 27 passing offense 16 TD, 33 sacks, 175 yds/gm, no 3 rush
21 Atlanta Falcons Sam Baker Offensive tackle USC
Atlanta no 14 passing offense, 27 TD, 27 sacks, 223 yds/gm, no 15 rush
26 Houston Texans Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
Houston no. 1 passing offense 29 TD, 25 sack, 291 yds/gm, no 30 rush

[Bigtinylittle]

I might feel more out on a limb about advocating drafting for need in the first round if weren't for the fact that almost all teams do it. About this time of year they all come out and say they are going to take the BPA, and then they go out and draft for need. They asolutely hate to reach, though. So they all sit in their war rooms and hope that when their time to draft comes the BPA turns out to be at one of their positions of greatest need. When that doesn't happen, they swallow hard and reach a bit.

I do agree that Duane Brown was a reach at the time, and probably a greater reach than we will ever see Smithiak make again. They were in a position where they had no LT to protect their franchise QB, a guy who is known for his lack of mobility. They were in a bind. When their turn came, I think they were surprised that so many LTs were already gone off the board. But they needed a LT badly so they bit the bullet and took Brown.

They never have publicly admitted they reached. I wouldn't either if I were them. For one thing, it is a knock on Brown if they do, and they never publicly knock their players.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

I might feel more out on a limb about advocating drafting for need in the first round if weren't for the fact that almost all teams do it. About this time of year they all come out and say they are going to take the BPA, and then they go out and draft for need.

I agree that they do it. I'm just saying that putting those blinders on where you only see players who fill needs, can hurt an organization.

KC was trying hard to find the next Richard Seymour for their defense and drafted Tyson Jackson with the 3rd overall pick last year. I kept wondering why in the world they wouldn't take Brian Orakpo since he would fit into their 3-4 concept. However, they already had Mike Vrabel so there wasn't a "need" on the roster. They were able to get Pierre Walters late in the draft to groom.

The Raiders selected Darius Heyward-Bey because JaMarcus Russell sucks. So, they figured that he needed a WR to make him look good. A fast guy so he could throw the ball 50 yards down the field. Al Davis didn't realize he could draft Mike Williams in the 3rd round and get a better WR, and he could have drafted Brian Cushing instead with his 1st pick. Then again, Linebackers just arent' drafted that high. At least, that's the consensus opinion.

There are other examples every year where teams just ignore the overwhelming evidence that player 'A' has the more talent than player 'B' but choose 'B' because he fills a need. Then, when 'A' outperforms the bust that they chose, they simply use the excuse that 'A' didn't fit their scheme or system. They forget to admit that 'B' obviously didn't fit either or he'd been able to produce.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

Duane was what, the eighth OT drafted in 2008.
Duane Brown was faster in 40 and slightly heavier than all guys taken above him I think.

Pick # NFL Team Player Position College
1 Miami Dolphins Jake Long Offensive tackle Michigan
Miam no 20 passing offense, 15 TD, 34 sacks, 198 yds/gm, no 4 rush
12 Denver Broncos Ryan Clady Offensive tackle Boise State
Denver no 13 passing offense, 21 TD, 34 sacks, 223 yds/gm, no 18 rush

26 Houston Texans Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
Houston no. 1 passing offense 29 TD, 25 sack, 291 yds/gm, no 30 rush

So, this shows that Duane Brown is a better Left Tackle than either Jake Long or Ryan Clady? Man, we were so lucky to get him at #26.

[Nconroe]

nope, doesn't show yet who is best LT, maybe in a couple more years we'll know that. Just shows the Texans likely did pretty good and after two years, if it was a reach, it is working out fairly well. that is all. sometimes reaches work out. Someone was saying 50% of picks work out as expected. maybe we were lucky, maybe we did proper analysis, I said it was for need, not BPA at the position we drafted in. And it was a tradedown with another pick as well.

[NBT]

So what about moving Brown inside to LG and drafting a LT?

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by NBT

So what about moving Brown inside to LG and drafting a LT?

If Trent Williams is available when we pick at #20, that's exactly what I would do. Hopefully, Duane Brown isn't too much of a liability in the run game though as a LG. However, I imagine the top LT's will be gone at #20 anyway.

[gunn]

Originally Posted by Roy P

If Trent Williams is available when we pick at #20, that's exactly what I would do. Hopefully, Duane Brown isn't too much of a liability in the run game though as a LG. However, I imagine the top LT's will be gone at #20 anyway.

I'm not sold on Trent Williams as a LT. He looks more like a right tackle who can spot a team on the left side to me. I would move him inside to guard personally

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by gunn

I'm not sold on Trent Williams as a LT. He looks more like a right tackle who can spot a team on the left side to me. I would move him inside to guard personally

I agree.

I would make Brown a RG before I made him a LG, or I would move Winston to OG and try Brown at RT. I already can hear the guys yelling you do not move a top 5 RT to OG for an unproven player.

As for Williams, he looks like a RT to me also.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by painekiller

I agree.

I would make Brown a RG before I made him a LG, or I would move Winston to OG and try Brown at RT. I already can hear the guys yelling you do not move a top 5 RT to OG for an unproven player.

As for Williams, he looks like a RT to me also.

It might just be easiest to put Williams at LG and leave everyone in place. That's just me though. I know that he would upgrade the talent level of the entire group, so let the coaches figure out where to put him. As long as we have to the top 5 OL on the field, I don't care where they line up.

I've heard this opinion that Trent is a RT at the next level, but I haven't seen the evidence. He did well against Orakpo and Kindle and they are first round pass rushers.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by painekiller

I would make Brown a RG before I made him a LG

The differences betwen playing LT & RT are distinct, significant, & well known, but what about the differences between the 2 guard positions ?

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

The differences betwen playing LT & RT are distinct, significant, & well known, but what about the differences between the 2 guard positions ?

Simular to the tackles, the LG is usually consider the more mobile guy, the RG is considered more the road grader.

That is why Studdard is a LG only, because he not a road grader.

In the up coming draft, Mike Johnson and Mike Iupati are LG types, yes Iupati has excellent feet, bad techneque, but excellent feet. BTW this is not about forty times.