McShay's Mock Draft

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by jppaul

D-line then becomes the odds on favorite.

That leaves DE, and at that point any of Orakpo, Brown, Johnson, and Maybin could be available.

Out of those, Johnson is the most athletic with the best speed and alot of upside, Maybin has perhaps the most upside as a pass rusher, through Brown, is up there too.

Orakpo is perhaps the most complete 4-3 end, has a good first step, good production, and has improved in run stopping. Brown has all the physical tools but I always have questions about FSU d lineman, plus he is supposedly on the rise. On certain charts, Brown and Maybin will be gone by the time we draft.

That leaves Orakpo and Johnson. Orakpo is the only one with value at 15. So Orakpo or trade down. I vote trade down, and if they are still in love with a DE, Orakpo will likely be gone if they trade down more than a couple of picks.

I think the current favorite is Maybin. Michael Johnson is a joke. E. Brown is too good to last. Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end. I'm banking that Maybin's size (242lbs) makes him attractive to Coach Kollar.

[BigBull]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I think the current favorite is Maybin. Michael Johnson is a joke. E. Brown is too good to last. Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end. I'm banking that Maybin's size (242lbs) makes him attractive to Coach Kollar.

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

An interesting opinion, but one that might hold water. I have been touting MJ for the past year, IMO, he does a Freeney after the 40 at the combine. I think he is money provided he can focus.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by jppaul

An interesting opinion, but one that might hold water. I have been touting MJ for the past year, IMO, he does a Freeney after the 40 at the combine. I think he is money provided he can focus.

I certainly got no problem with the guy we took in the 2003 Draft, Andre Johnson. But if anybody remembers the Texans in that Draft, one of the other players they were seriously considering besides AJ with their #3 overall was pass-rusher supreme AZ DE Terrel Suggs. Anyway, one of the primary reasons the Texans ceased considering Suggs was his 40 time.
I remember everybody including McNair himself going out to AZ to time Suggs who ran and then reran the 40 on another day but still couldn't crack 4.7. Ever since then I've learned not to place too much emphasis on 40 times for pass-rushing prospects, as Suggs has become one of the better edge-rushers in the NFL since being drafted.
While its a more important consideration for some positions like corners, receivers, and backs, the absense of a fast 40 time isn't a showstopper for a passrusher IMO.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

While its a more important consideration for some positions like corners, receivers, and backs, the absense of a fast 40 time isn't a showstopper for a passrusher IMO.

Sure, but the presence of a good one will skyrocket a prospect. Remember Freeney?

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

No way is he the best DE in the draft. I'll grant you that his height and speed makes him intriguing, but he doesn't play with any fire whatsoever. He's ineffective against the run, almost seeming like he's not interested. He gets blocked by TEs, which is pretty pathetic considering most college TEs aren't talented in blocking.

He may go to Indy and blow people away with times, but this guy is all potential and very little production. While that was a signature line complaining about Mario, it is more appropriate here. Mario got double teamed a lot his Senior year, where I saw MJ getting single blocked in his games.

Currently, Johnson is like Roger Moore as more and more people are jumping off his bandwagon. NFL Draft Scout has him as a 2nd round pick at this point being passed by Robert Ayers. Again, I haven't talked to him to determine his motivation and passion for the game, but from what I've seen in games, it just isn't there.

[nero THE zero]

Originally Posted by Roy P

but this guy is all potential and very little production.

He has 20 career sacks including 9 his senior season. That's more than Maybin and one less than Orakpo.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nero THE zero

He has 20 career sacks including 9 his senior season. That's more than Maybin and one less than Orakpo.

Maybin had 12 sacks as a redshirt Sophomore and 19 TFLs. His "career" numbers are not going to be a fair comparison considering the fact that he played behind All-American Maurice Evans and he is only a Sophomore. Johnson had 9 sacks and 17.5 TFLs after 4 years of experience. The fact that he didn't start many games but was only brought in during passing situations his Junior year should tell you something.

Anyway, I'm not trying to kill the guy, I'd be more than happy to draft him the 2nd round if we don't have a shot at Brown, Orakpo, Maybin, Ayers, or Kruger earlier in the draft..

[nero THE zero]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Maybin had 12 sacks as a redshirt Sophomore and 19 TFLs. His "career" numbers are not going to be a fair comparison considering the fact that he played behind All-American Maurice Evans and he is only a Sophomore. Johnson had 9 sacks and 17.5 TFLs after 4 years of experience. The fact that he didn't start many games but was only brought in during passing situations his Junior year should tell you something.

Anyway, I'm not trying to kill the guy, I'd be more than happy to draft him the 2nd round if we don't have a shot at Brown, Orakpo, Maybin, Ayers, or Kruger earlier in the draft..

I don't know, I guess to me 9 sacks doesn't really constitute "very little production."

I know it's just semantics, but I think MJ is a good example of when critique of a player snowballs to the point where it becomes exaggerated and inaccurate. The guy has all the physical tools to be a dominant player in the NFL. Knocking the guy for "taking plays off" might be accurate, but to say that he hasn't produced isn't.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nero THE zero

I don't know, I guess to me 9 sacks doesn't really constitute "very little production."

Sacks are not the only statistic to look at when considering production from a DE. While Agents like to point at that one stat to support the idea of their clients worth, one could also take a look at the number of Tackles a DE is a part of to determine production.

While I am going by what my eyes see during a game as the major factor for determining "production" let me at least show you some Tackles numbers as an indicator.

Maybin - 49 Tackles
Brown - 37 Tackles (as a Jr. couldn't find his Sr. numbers)
Orakpo - 42 Tackles
Kruger - 61 Tackles (2007)
Johnson - 43 Tackles (he only had 21 as a Jr. when he did not start)

So, it really just comes down to what you are looking at. Maybe MJ is such an athlete that I was expecting more when I saw him.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

A guy who plays as if he doesn't care 75% of the time is the best? Then we need to look elsewhere. Johnson was capable of being a huge player, but he plays like he doesn't care. Has his whole career.

I have no use for him.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I think the current favorite is Maybin. Michael Johnson is a joke. E. Brown is too good to last. Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end. I'm banking that Maybin's size (242lbs) makes him attractive to Coach Kollar.

I would think that his size would scare Kollar. From what I have heard (Rob Rang) the biggest worry about him is that he wont be able to add much weight.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by mussop

I would think that his size would scare Kollar. From what I have heard (Rob Rang) the biggest worry about him is that he wont be able to add much weight.

Aaron Schobel played for Kollar in Buffalo at 6'4" 243lbs. He has been able to generate double digit sacks with a small DE before, so I wouldn't think he'd be too afraid of bringing Maybin on board.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Aaron Schobel played for Kollar in Buffalo at 6'4" 243lbs. He has been able to generate double digit sacks with a small DE before, so I wouldn't think he'd be too afraid of bringing Maybin on board.

That's like saying Sean Payton prefers short QBs because he did well with Drew Brees. The two are unconnected. I am sure Kollar liked Schobel for a number of reasons, none of which were he was small. If Maybin (or any DE) gets the recommendation from Kollar, it won't be because they were small.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by barrett

That's like saying Sean Payton prefers short QBs because he did well with Drew Brees. The two are unconnected. I am sure Kollar liked Schobel for a number of reasons, none of which were he was small. If Maybin (or any DE) gets the recommendation from Kollar, it won't be because they were small.

Bad analogy. He's looking for high motor, quickness, and intensity... That's according to Kollar himself. And, his history shows a willingness to use undersized guys and very few examples of bigger DLmen. Nobody was arguing that they like him because he's small. However, he may like his athleticism and his size won't concern him.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Bad analogy. He's looking for high motor, quickness, and intensity... That's according to Kollar himself. And, his history shows a willingness to use undersized guys and very few examples of bigger DLmen. Nobody was arguing that they like him because he's small. However, he may like his athleticism and his size won't concern him.

You just just described Everette Brown.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by barrett

That's like saying Sean Payton prefers short QBs because he did well with Drew Brees. The two are unconnected. I am sure Kollar liked Schobel for a number of reasons, none of which were he was small. If Maybin (or any DE) gets the recommendation from Kollar, it won't be because they were small.

You are comparing apples to oranges and putting them in my mouth. How's that for mixed metaphors?

Anyway, let me try to be clearer in my message. It's obvious you aren't following what I am trying to say.

It is my belief, on Feb 7, 2009, that Everette Brown will be off the board when we pick at #15. I also think that getting a pass-rushing DE to play opposite of Mario is a priority for this team and could be addressed with our first round pick.

Of the players who will be available when we pick, I think Aaron Maybin would offer the best pass rushing ability. He's also an underclassman, so like Okoye, there seems to be room for even more improvement. So, while other teams may take a pass on Maybin and allow him to slip because of his size, Kollar may not be as hesitant. Because he has had success with undersized DEs in the past, he may be more willing to bring Maybin on board than other teams picking ahead of us. In fact, like last year, the Texans may be able to trade down and still be able to get the guy that they want.

If you want to see how I feel, please refer to the "My Guys" thread, where I currently have E. Brown as the #2 player on my board. For the purpose of this thread, I was saying the Texans may be most likely targeting Maybin. That is based upon what I see as need, history, and the decision makers.

It was not my intention to say that Kollar wants a 240lbs DE any more than the Steelers wanted a 5' 11" 192lbs WR. When the Steelers drafted Santonio Holmes, Big Ben wanted a "big" target on his team. They passed on Chad Jackson and drafted Holmes because they felt he was a better player. Jackson is 6'1" 215lbs but the Steelers' front office had a good experience with Hines Ward who is barely 6' 0" so they did not get too concerned about the height requirement. Therefore, I project that the Texans will be more likely to draft Maybin than Michael Johnson (who I think will also be available) when we pick.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

You are comparing apples to oranges and putting them in my mouth. How's that for mixed metaphors?

Anyway, let me try to be clearer in my message. It's obvious you aren't following what I am trying to say.

It is my belief, on Feb 7, 2009, that Everette Brown will be off the board when we pick at #15. I also think that getting a pass-rushing DE to play opposite of Mario is a priority for this team and could be addressed with our first round pick.

Of the players who will be available when we pick, I think Aaron Maybin would offer the best pass rushing ability. He's also an underclassman, so like Okoye, there seems to be room for even more improvement. So, while other teams may take a pass on Maybin and allow him to slip because of his size, Kollar may not be as hesitant. Because he has had success with undersized DEs in the past, he may be more willing to bring Maybin on board than other teams picking ahead of us. In fact, like last year, the Texans may be able to trade down and still be able to get the guy that they want.

If you want to see how I feel, please refer to the "My Guys" thread, where I currently have E. Brown as the #2 player on my board. For the purpose of this thread, I was saying the Texans may be most likely targeting Maybin. That is based upon what I see as need, history, and the decision makers.

It was not my intention to say that Kollar wants a 240lbs DE any more than the Steelers wanted a 5' 11" 192lbs WR. When the Steelers drafted Santonio Holmes, Big Ben wanted a "big" target on his team. They passed on Chad Jackson and drafted Holmes because they felt he was a better player. Jackson is 6'1" 215lbs but the Steelers' front office had a good experience with Hines Ward who is barely 6' 0" so they did not get too concerned about the height requirement. Therefore, I project that the Texans will be more likely to draft Maybin than Michael Johnson (who I think will also be available) when we pick.

Makes sense. I just don't think his size is an indicator we will draft him. But if you say he has the best pass rush ability, that would be.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by Roy P

You are comparing apples to oranges and putting them in my mouth.

Is it just me or does there seem to be something wrong with that statement?

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end.

At 6'5" & 'bout 265, Kruger along with Robert Ayers looks to be one of the few DE prospects who is a 3-down player at DE in the NFL. But that only assumes he's really quick enough, athletic enough to be a bona fide edge-rusher and not just another version of a current Texan, the one-dimentional Anthony Weaver. And though LSU Tyson Jackson at 290 obviously has excellent size, he also appears to be primarily a run-stopper.
I'd rather use a pick, even one as high as a late first-rounder, on a situational player than on just another DE who can't significantly upgrade our pass rush.
BTW, here's an article about Krueger I ran across. Sounds like he had a near-fatal run-in with a Mex gang in Utah awhile back:
***
"Nine months later, in a Marriott hotel room in Salt Lake City, Kruger was emotionless as he talked about that January night. The Utah defensive end was almost numb to the story, having rehashed it countless times for the people who asked to see the scars that zigzag across his torso.

The 15 to 20 Latino gang members who jumped Kruger as he was leaving a party also drove a screwdriver through the back of his teammate, Greg Newman, and used brass knuckles to break the nose and shatter the cheekbone of his younger brother, Dave.

It was Kruger, though, who awoke the following morning in a Utah hospital with life-threatening injuries.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...yhoo&type=lgns