Official Senior Bowl Thread

[jppaul]

Blah...Blah...I am done with first round tackles FOR THIS TEAM, we have other needs besides D-line. B.J. Raji pulled an Okoye and jumped up the charts but after 5 firsts in 6 years give me a 2nd or 3rd rounder before we have 82 % of our cap tied into the d-line.

BTW that goes for DEs out there too. Orakpo, Maybin, Johnson, and Everette Brown, NOT INTERESTED. Are we any better than the Lions, for the redundant drafting, they drafted three WR in as many years. We drafted 5 first round Dlinemen in 6 years. Fing Ridicolous. I AM DONE WITH THAT CRAP.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by jppaul

Blah...Blah...I am done with first round tackles FOR THIS TEAM, we have other needs besides D-line. B.J. Raji pulled an Okoye and jumped up the charts but after 5 firsts in 6 years give me a 2nd or 3rd rounder before we have 82 % of our cap tied into the d-line.

Fair point.
Lot of guys went gah-gah eyed over Okoyes Senior Bowl performance a couple years ago (apparently including Smith & Kubiak),
and 2 years out in the NFL he's been a definite flop for a #10 overall.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Fair point.
Lot of guys went gah-gah eyed over Okoyes Senior Bowl performance a couple years ago (apparently including Smith & Kubiak),
and 2 years out in the NFL he's been a definite flop for a #10 overall.

I think that comment is ridiculous. Played well early in his rookie season before wearing down. Understandable for any rookie, not to mention one as young as him. He was a major disappointment this year without a doubt, but he was nicked up most of the year and was asked to play a lot of 2 gap type techniques. Not his strong suit. Will he ever be in same level at his position as AJ or Mario. I doubt it, but if your expectations for a first round pick are that he ends up being one of the top 3 or 4 guys at his position your going to be disappointed an awful lot. Hell even expecting multiple pro bowls from your first round pick is probably unrealistic.

[RunninRaven]

I think it is silly to use past player performance to plan drafting strategy for THIS year. Whether or not Travis Johnson or Okoye worked out has nothing to do with how good a player Everette Brown will be. How good of a player Everette Brown IS will determine how good a player Everette Brown will be. You look at that and that alone to determine his value and draft from there.

Does it suck that we have put so much money into the D-line over the years and really only had Mario to show for it? Yeah, it does, but that doesn't mean you give up on improving a weakness of the team's through the draft. I mean, this particular regime is really only responsible for Mario and Okoye anyway. Mario I think we can agree has worked out rather nicely. Okoye looks to be a disappointment but his story is far from over. If the team sees a guy at 15 that they really believe can help this team on the D-line, I sure as hell hope they don't avoid taking him just because Travis Johnson didn't work out like we'd hoped.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by papabear

but if your expectations for a first round pick are that he ends up being one of the top 3 or 4 guys at his position your going to be disappointed an awful lot. Hell even expecting multiple pro bowls from your first round pick is probably unrealistic.

For openers he's not just a first round pick, he's a top 10 pick which by definition means he was drafted in the top third of the first round. And my criteria for success for a player drafted that high would include a level of performance within his first 2 years which indicates he's a standout, a "star" or atleast demononstrates the potential to rise to that level. And I'm not talking about flashing, about making a play or 2 in a game and then disappearing for a couple weeks. Gotta have more consistancy than that by the end of the second year. And so far I haven't seen that, maybe you have ?

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

For openers he's not just a first round pick, he's a top 10 pick which by definition means he was drafted in the top third of the first round. And my criteria for success for a player drafted that high would include a level of performance within his first 2 years which indicates he's a standout, a "star" or atleast demononstrates the potential to rise to that level. And I'm not talking about flashing, about making a play or 2 in a game and then disappearing for a couple weeks. Gotta have more consistancy than that by the end of the second year. And so far I haven't seen that, maybe you have ?

I would hope that any first round pick for us turns out to be a star, but the reality is that doesn't happen a majority of the time for any team. Think of how many top ten picks don't ever amount to much. We could argue over how much potential Okoye's demonstrated and probably never agree (although we're prob. not that far apart). I've just gotten to the point that I'm not that worried about where a guy was picked anymore. More draft picks fail than don't in the NFL. Picking at the top of the first round only slightly increases your chances of getting a star, if at all. I haven't done it, but I'm sure in the majority of drafts you could look at the first round (or top 10) and find far more guys who were only average, or worse, than standout players. It does matter when it comes to salary cap, but getting players who can contribute from later in the draft probably has as much if not more of an impact on making sure you're not towards the top of the round and forced to pay the high salary for a guy who's play likely won't match up.

I want all of our picks to be stars, but it's not going to happen. I would hope that we hit more than miss in the first round as well, but If all you get is a guy who is just an average starter...well you are probably still well ahead of the curve. Okoye did not have a good year at all. I doubt he'll ever be a star, but I still think he can play a big role on this team. He's still very young at a position that takes a while to grow into, so he might surprise us.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Fair point.
Lot of guys went gah-gah eyed over Okoyes Senior Bowl performance a couple years ago (apparently including Smith & Kubiak),
and 2 years out in the NFL he's been a definite flop for a #10 overall.

Okoye played hurt this season, high ankle sprain, so he played on one leg. Plus he was being used to as a read react DT, he is a shot the gap and find the ball type. So IMO judging him a bust is unfair.

As for Raji suspension, my understanding is the school mismanaged his credits and he became ineligible. While he was away, he found out how much he missed the game and rededicated himself. Had he played last year, we would have know of him.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by jppaul

Are we any better than the Lions, for the redundant drafting, they drafted three WR in as many years.

Going back to 2002 when they drafted Joey Harrington, they could have drafted John Henderson or Albert Haynesworth.

2003 they drafted hometown boy Charles Rogers instead of Andre Johnson. It's not that they shouldn't have drafted a WR, they just got the wrong one.

2004 they drafted Roy Williams because Rogers was not the answer. Imagine if they had had gone with Haynesworth and Andre Johnson the two previous years, they could have gotten Ben Roethlisberger in this draft.

2005 was the Mike Williams draft. This guy was considered a top pick the year prior, but simply was denied the opportunity to enter the draft. In attempt to surround the QB with weapons to make him successful, the investment in Williams was probably a reach considering his lack of another year playing. They could have gone after Senior Bowl phenom DeMarcus Ware, but that would have been silly, right? The best player at that draft slot was probably Derrick Johnson, but we also passed on him, opting to trade down.

2006 the Lions decided to forget about WRs and drafted Ernie Sims. Not a bad choice considering they passed on Derrick Johnson the year before. The option of Jay Cutler was there, but if they had drafted Big Ben in 2004, that wouldn't have been necessary. What about Combine stud Broderick Bunkley or Haloti Ngata to put next to Albert Haynesworth? I'm forgetting that Shaun Rogers was on the team, so how about CB Antonio Cromartie?

2007 Calvin Johnson was considered to be the BPA in the draft. Oakland went with Russell, so the Lions would have been thought of as crazy for not selecting the surest thing simply because they had made mistakes at the position before. Personally, I thought Adrian Peterson was the BPA, so I would have gone that route.

To re-cap the Lions 1st round draft picks could have looked like this:
2002 - DT Albert Haynesworth
2003 - WR Andre Johnson
2004 - QB Ben Roethlisberger
2005 - LB Derrick Johnson
2006 - CB Antonio Cromartie
2007 - RB Adrian Peterson

Gee, I bet Matt Millen wishes he had a time machine.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by jppaul

Blah...Blah...I am done with first round tackles FOR THIS TEAM, we have other needs besides D-line. B.J. Raji pulled an Okoye and jumped up the charts but after 5 firsts in 6 years give me a 2nd or 3rd rounder before we have 82 % of our cap tied into the d-line.

BTW that goes for DEs out there too. Orakpo, Maybin, Johnson, and Everette Brown, NOT INTERESTED. Are we any better than the Lions, for the redundant drafting, they drafted three WR in as many years. We drafted 5 first round Dlinemen in 6 years. Fing Ridicolous. I AM DONE WITH THAT CRAP.

The Lions drafting WRs has nothing to do with our team or if we should take a DL. (1) We need to draft good players. (2) If it comes down to a choice between multiple good players we need to pick the one at a position of need. Neither of these items rules out DL by any means. You don't make 1st round selections based on cap money. If you get it right and pick the best player and he happens to play DL then you figure out the cap money later (cut weaver, TJ, or both).

[papabear]

Originally Posted by jppaul

Blah...Blah...I am done with first round tackles FOR THIS TEAM, we have other needs besides D-line. B.J. Raji pulled an Okoye and jumped up the charts but after 5 firsts in 6 years give me a 2nd or 3rd rounder before we have 82 % of our cap tied into the d-line.

BTW that goes for DEs out there too. Orakpo, Maybin, Johnson, and Everette Brown, NOT INTERESTED. Are we any better than the Lions, for the redundant drafting, they drafted three WR in as many years. We drafted 5 first round Dlinemen in 6 years. Fing Ridicolous. I AM DONE WITH THAT CRAP.

Couple of things. WR is different than a defensive lineman for one main reasons. A WR will never make a bad team good. They can't do anything unless they have an offensive line that can protect the QB....and a QB to get them the ball. Same thing works on the other side of the line. We could throw out two pro bowl CB's, but if you can't get pressure on the QB or stop the run with some consistency you are still going to get picked apart at some point.

I will never have a problem picking a lineman on either side of the ball if the staff thinks they are worth it. It might not always be my favorite, and it's definitely not sexy, but the trenches are where game are won.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by papabear

Couple of things. WR is different than a defensive lineman for one main reasons. A WR will never make a bad team good. They can't do anything unless they have an offensive line that can protect the QB....and a QB to get them the ball. Same thing works on the other side of the line. We could throw out two pro bowl CB's, but if you can't get pressure on the QB or stop the run with some consistency you are still going to get picked apart at some point.

I will never have a problem picking a lineman on either side of the ball if the staff thinks they are worth it. It might not always be my favorite, and it's definitely not sexy, but the trenches are where game are won.

On the flip side does focusing your best chance to get quality players into one specific need, repeatedly, to the neglect of other positions, make any more sense?

Similarly we our focusing a large portion of our cap into one area, again to the neglect of other positions.

Certainly, everybody is correct, we are not in fact the Lions. Thank you for clearing that up. All I was saying is that other teams follies may serve as educational, in the same way history is educational. A what not to do blue print, so to speak.

What teams does this saturation drafting, to the degree in which we have done, actually payoff. Didn't payoff for the Lions, didn't payoff for us, who did it pay off for? This is not a rhetorical question.

A dlineman can make a bad team better, but so can a WR, and on that i disagree with you. If you have a good Oline and a good QB, your passing offense could still suck if your recievers can't uncover. Call it something analagous to the David Carr effect, one that is applicable to WRs.

The Vikings had arguably the best d-line the year before last but becuase they had secondary problems they still couldn't stop anybody.

Why should we continue to dedicate our resources to a position, that we have already invested the majority of our best chances to get quality players, to the neglect of other positions.

That is my question.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by jppaul

On the flip side does focusing your best chance to get quality players into one specific need, repeatedly, to the neglect of other positions, make any more sense?

Similarly we our focusing a large portion of our cap into one area, again to the neglect of other positions.

Certainly, everybody is correct, we are not in fact the Lions. Thank you for clearing that up. All I was saying is that other teams follies may serve as educational, in the same way history is educational. A what not to do blue print, so to speak.

What teams does this saturation drafting, to the degree in which we have done, actually payoff. Didn't payoff for the Lions, didn't payoff for us, who did it pay off for? This is not a rhetorical question.

A dlineman can make a bad team better, but so can a WR, and on that i disagree with you. If you have a good Oline and a good QB, your passing offense could still suck if your recievers can't uncover. Call it something analagous to the David Carr effect, one that is applicable to WRs.

The Vikings had arguably the best d-line the year before last but becuase they had secondary problems they still couldn't stop anybody.

Why should we continue to dedicate our resources to a position, that we have already invested the majority of our best chances to get quality players, to the neglect of other positions.
That is my question.

The amount of resources previously spent is not relevant to the argument. The relevant factor is do we need to improve on the DL right now. Clearly the answer is yes.

Otherwise you could say we have put fewer resources into WR than almost any position on the team the last 4 years so we should be looking to draft WRs. But this is not relevant. You draft on what you have and what you need, not on what you allocated. Your line of reasoning is the type that led Charlie Casserly to offer up Boselli as an excuse for why he never got a decent LT (We tried previously so we get to turn our attention elsewhere).

The DL is probably our worst or 2nd worst position group along with Secondary. Both have had first day draft picks and FA money thrown their way and we remain in need of upgrading in both areas far more so than at LB or anywhere on the offense. Hopefully a DT, FS, or DE is worthy of being drafted at 15 when we hit the clock.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by barrett

The amount of resources previously spent is not relevant to the argument. The relevant factor is do we need to improve on the DL right now. Clearly the answer is yes.

Otherwise you could say we have put fewer resources into WR than almost any position on the team the last 4 years so we should be looking to draft WRs. But this is not relevant. You draft on what you have and what you need, not on what you allocated. Your line of reasoning is the type that led Charlie Casserly to offer up Boselli as an excuse for why he never got a decent LT (We tried previously so we get to turn our attention elsewhere).

You are obviously a believer in the sunk cost rule. Since you took my argument out of context, lets do the same with yours:

That team has taken 15 straight first round d-linemen. DL is still the greatest need for that team. By your line of reasoning, keep taking the DL. Basically your line of reasoning is advocating for beating your head against a concrete wall.

Personally I'll pass, but maybe someone else is interested.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by jppaul

You are obviously a believer in the sunk cost rule. Since you took my argument out of context, lets do the same with yours:

That team has taken 15 straight first round d-linemen. DL is still the greatest need for that team. By your line of reasoning, keep taking the DL. Basically your line of reasoning is advocating for beating your head against a concrete wall.

Personally I'll pass, but maybe someone else is interested.

If you take 15 straight DL and at the end of it DL is still the worst position on your team, then DL would still clearly be in play for the 16th draft. You don't play draft slots and contracts. You evaluate how your team plays on the field and look where you need to get better.

If you look at actual play on the field, DL is one of our worst 2 position groups so it should be one of our priorities to upgrade (along with secondary). This does NOT mean we should draft a DL in the first round. It DOES mean we should not rule out drafting a DL in the first round. If it comes to our pick and a DL is the best player on our board, I would expect us to take him. If not I would expect to see a DE in the 2nd or 3rd round.

You said you had a serious question asking why we would take a DL again and this is a serious answer. Why don't you tell us a few positions that are more in need of an upgrade on our team and what direction we should be going in round 1. I'll accept safety, but I don't see anywhere else where we need help more.

[TexanJedi]

According to NFLDraftCountdown, the Texans were spotted with Clay Matthews (LB USC), Mohamed Massaquoi (WR Georgia), and Coye Francies (CB/KR San Jose St.) at the Senior Bowl. Make of that what you will.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by barrett

If you take 15 straight DL and at the end of it DL is still the worst position on your team, then DL would still clearly be in play for the 16th draft. You don't play draft slots and contracts. You evaluate how your team plays on the field and look where you need to get better.

you don't? Seriously, Barrett? Give me a break. Another Hypo you have had the first overall selection 4 times and youve drafted all DL. Can you imagine the cap ramifications?

That is a bit extreme obviously, but you are lying to yourself if you think, that cap ramifications don't factor in.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by barrett

If you take 15 straight DL and at the end of it DL is still the worst position on your team,

Then you have a problem with scouts, GM, the draft in general.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by barrett

If you take 15 straight DL and at the end of it DL is still the worst position on your team, then DL would still clearly be in play for the 16th draft. You don't play draft slots and contracts. You evaluate how your team plays on the field and look where you need to get better.

If you look at actual play on the field, DL is one of our worst 2 position groups so it should be one of our priorities to upgrade (along with secondary). This does NOT mean we should draft a DL in the first round. It DOES mean we should not rule out drafting a DL in the first round. If it comes to our pick and a DL is the best player on our board, I would expect us to take him. If not I would expect to see a DE in the 2nd or 3rd round.

You said you had a serious question asking why we would take a DL again and this is a serious answer. Why don't you tell us a few positions that are more in need of an upgrade on our team and what direction we should be going in round 1. I'll accept safety, but I don't see anywhere else where we need help more.

I am not saying that DL is not a need rather that you can find talent other places than the first round of the draft, and that given our track record, we would be well advised to look elsewhere.

Which is why I have been advocating for Michael Johnson in the second.

Additionally, I think our biggest need this year transcends any one position. We need an impact player, someone that comes in and makes a big splash, and the easiest area to do that is LB, which is why Vilma, Willis and Demeco were all DROY.

The value in the draft would also lie in LB at 15. I like either Maluluaga or Cushing personally. Cushing could play strongside, with Malualaga you might have to make some moves.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by jppaul

On the flip side does focusing your best chance to get quality players into one specific need, repeatedly, to the neglect of other positions, make any more sense?

Similarly we our focusing a large portion of our cap into one area, again to the neglect of other positions.

I have concerns about the cap implications as well. I'm not a Best player available or a need guy. It's always a mixture of both. I'm not saying we have to draft a DT, but to just make a decision that we are not taking a D-lineman in the first round before the draft is bad planning. The Texans didn't plan on drafting Okoye, but when their spot came up he was by far the highest rated guy on their board. You may not like the way it turned out, but at that time we got a guy that most people projected to go several slots higher than us and many considered it a steal. All you can do is balance need and BPA when your spot comes up and make a pick.

A dlineman can make a bad team better, but so can a WR, and on that i disagree with you. If you have a good Oline and a good QB, your passing offense could still suck if your recievers can't uncover. Call it something analagous to the David Carr effect, one that is applicable to WRs.

Well then we can just disagree. Although in my example I meant to imply that you didn't have a good O-line or QB. If you do, then yes you need to find that playmaker on the outside. If you don't you can sign all the WR's you want and it won't change a thing. My point was everything starts in the trenches, so if your going to spend a disproportionate amount of your resources on a single area....I would rather it be one of the lines.

Why should we continue to dedicate our resources to a position, that we have already invested the majority of our best chances to get quality players, to the neglect of other positions.

That is my question.

I'm not advocating dedicating resources to the position necessarily. I'm saying you have to take the hand your dealt on draft day. Not considering a position is just as dangerous as reaching for a position based on need IMO.


On top of that, guys taken from the middle-late first round don't eat up near as much space as some people might think. TJ's cap number this year was 1.9 mill. Next year it will be 2.2. Far from a bargain, but not a cap killer by any means from a pickk that was around the same point in the draft as we will have this year. So taking the same position in the first round every year hurts a lot worse if all of the picks are top 5 than if you are a little farther back.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by papabear

I have concerns about the cap implications as well. I'm not a Best player available or a need guy. It's always a mixture of both. I'm not saying we have to draft a DT, but to just make a decision that we are not taking a D-lineman in the first round before the draft is bad planning. The Texans didn't plan on drafting Okoye, but when their spot came up he was by far the highest rated guy on their board. You may not like the way it turned out, but at that time we got a guy that most people projected to go several slots higher than us and many considered it a steal. All you can do is balance need and BPA when your spot comes up and make a pick.




Well then we can just disagree. Although in my example I meant to imply that you didn't have a good O-line or QB. If you do, then yes you need to find that playmaker on the outside. If you don't you can sign all the WR's you want and it won't change a thing. My point was everything starts in the trenches, so if your going to spend a disproportionate amount of your resources on a single area....I would rather it be one of the lines.




I'm not advocating dedicating resources to the position necessarily. I'm saying you have to take the hand your dealt on draft day. Not considering a position is just as dangerous as reaching for a position based on need IMO.


On top of that, guys taken from the middle-late first round don't eat up near as much space as some people might think. TJ's cap number this year was 1.9 mill. Next year it will be 2.2. Far from a bargain, but not a cap killer by any means from a pickk that was around the same point in the draft as we will have this year. So taking the same position in the first round every year hurts a lot worse if all of the picks are top 5 than if you are a little farther back.

I agree it is a bad idea to go into a draft either locking on or eliminating positions. QB is an exception since only 1 plays, but everywhere else it is a balancing act between need and BPA.