Texans Training Camp

[Nconroe]

What teams likely to improve/ decline lengthy discussion.

This guy thinks Texans declining due to funny math.

What do you guys think.


http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...an-expectation

[HPF Bob]

If the Texans "had to take the hit", wide receiver was probably a good spot for it. We still have Hopkins, Strong and Miller and just need to find a few pass catchers lurking in training camp.

I suspect the Texans are going to be more of a running team this year as they beef up the OL, split time between Miller, Freeman and Hunt - possibly going to more 2-TE fronts as a way of protecting Savage and Watson as they learn the position. The less they need to depend on their QBs by giving them manageable third down situations, the easier it will be for the offense to sustain drives.

Of course, they're hiding in Hillbillyworld now so this is all speculation on my part but it makes sense.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

What teams likely to improve/ decline lengthy discussion.

This guy thinks Texans declining due to funny math.

What do you guys think.


http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...an-expectation

Eh, it's Bill Barnwell. He was a Football Outsiders guy for a while. Note how many times he points to DVOA in the article like it's the be all, end all. I'm really not a fan of Football Outsiders and their whole DVOA/computed power rankings format. It's just stylized stats and they actually make money off of it. I'll take the raw numbers any day over snake oil...

[HPF Bob]

Well, since ESPN dumped actual NFL reporters like John Clayton and Ed Werder in a salary purge, of course they will replace actual reporting with guys who just want to massage data to say whatever they want to say. It's cheaper to blow numbers out their asses than do some actual x's-and-o's analysis.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Well, since ESPN dumped actual NFL reporters like John Clayton and Ed Werder in a salary purge, of course they will replace actual reporting with guys who just want to massage data to say whatever they want to say. It's cheaper to blow numbers out their asses than do some actual x's-and-o's analysis.

Barnwell is 10Xs better than Clayton and Werder. All you get with Clayton and Werder is mouth pieces for team 'sources'. I've never seen a bit of analysis or opinion from them, they simply say what they're told. And because of that they are dependent on those sources to stay relevant. So they can't ever go against a team or step out of line, because it would mean their sources would dry up and they'd stop being useful. Why not just read press releases or the team twitter if you want to hear from a team? Why the middle man?

Barnwell may be in love with DVOA, but more thought goes into one of his overlong articles than everything written by Clayton and Werder combined in the last decade.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

Eh, it's Bill Barnwell. He was a Football Outsiders guy for a while. Note how many times he points to DVOA in the article like it's the be all, end all. I'm really not a fan of Football Outsiders and their whole DVOA/computed power rankings format. It's just stylized stats and they actually make money off of it. I'll take the raw numbers any day over snake oil...

Barnwell is pretty good but he bases 100% of his team analysis on the idea that everything regresses to the mean. So everyone who was good last year is bound to fall back and everyone who was bad is bound to get better. I think it's why he's mostly useless on the preseason stuff. I think he's ok when he examines matchups or offense vs defense using DVOA (he's a one trick pony and the one trick is DVOA).

[HPF Bob]

So you must ignore John Harris since he's just a team mouthpiece? I prefer someone who actually knows some team sources and attends practices rather than someone who just puts numbers in a cuisinart and believes brilliance comes out.

If they are too pollyanna, like Harris, I just take it and feed it through a reality check before I buy into it but at least I'm hearing from somebody who is there.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

So you must ignore John Harris since he's just a team mouthpiece? I prefer someone who actually knows some team sources and attends practices rather than someone who just puts numbers in a cuisinart and believes brilliance comes out.

If they are too pollyanna, like Harris, I just take it and feed it through a reality check before I buy into it but at least I'm hearing from somebody who is there.

I just don't like guys whose career depends on access, because access depends on teams being happy. This means they can't ever be anything but a mouthpiece. So you aren't hearing from someone who is there, you are hearing what someone who is there wants you to hear. And the NFL is absolutely the worst about this. NFL teams are run by control freaks obsessed with controlling what is said in the media. So they 'leak' things to tame journalists to control the narrative. That's how every guy who leaves a team gets character assassinated after he's gone.

Barnwell is definitely too stat heavy sometimes, but he does plenty of stuff that isn't. Guys like Werder and Clayton only do "here's what my sources are telling me" stuff.

[Arky]

When it comes to analysis, I like listening to the Fantasy Football guys. I don't play Fantasy Football myself, but those guys got a better handle on the players who are getting hot, players that aren't, team defense and other assorted categories.... those guys take their fantasy football seriously..... I get more a more informed outlook from them than I do many of the talking heads...

Football Outsiders data is useless on game day. They aren't in the predicition/forecast business. They never participate in pickem's or publish who they like in an upcoming matchup. Their data is massaged after the game - a ranking system. Sure, many (all?) NFL teams subscribe to their "premium" service but who knows why? My guess is NFL teams have plenty of spare cash and if Johnny is doing it, we're going to do it, too... I maintain a coach or scout can glean more info from the (free) raw numbers and film than he can from FO data.... Is FO a useful tool worth shelling out money for? Not in my book....

[chuck]

CAUTION NECKS - FAKE NEWS

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by chuck

CAUTION NECKS - FAKE NEWS

They claim they are doing this to escape Houston heat. Yeah, well, if West Virginia is better, why not the Canadian rockies? Their first exhibition game didn't demonstrate any improvement.

If the Panthers cut this Byrd kid, we need to get him. There aren't five receivers in Texans camp better than this guy. He chewed our defenders up and split them out.

Watson exudes poise and looks like he's having fun out there. That gets infectuous.

It was nice to see Quesenberry playing. I hope he's able to make the team.