O'Brien Coy About Draft Options

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

If you are the Houston Texans, "hope"(AKA as day-dreaming) would be deceiving yourself into thinking there's somebody in this years Draft like Andrew Luck or John Elway.

Well, I don't recall ever saying that there was but I'll respond nonetheless. I seem to recall that one of the last drafts that supposedly didn't have an "Aaron Rodgers"-type player in it was the draft when the Packers actually took Aaron Rodgers. So you never know.

But to return to the QBs in this draft, are you suggesting that there is not a single QB in this draft that has the potential to develop into a franchise QB and that this crop is so weak that the average QB available in some future 3rd round grades out higher?

And finally, I see a contradiction in your plan where the Texans front office somehow become draft savants and start landing Pro Bowlers at every round and a franchise QB in a later round (a/k/a the Seattle/SF plan). Yet, this same front office you don't have confidence in identifying the best QB in this draft.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Well, I don't recall ever saying that there was but I'll respond nonetheless. I seem to recall that one of the last drafts that supposedly didn't have an "Aaron Rodgers"-type player in it was the draft when the Packers actually took Aaron Rodgers. So you never know.

But to return to the QBs in this draft, are you suggesting that there is not a single QB in this draft that has the potential to develop into a franchise QB and that this crop is so weak that the average QB available in some future 3rd round grades out higher?

And finally, I see a contradiction in your plan where the Texans front office somehow become draft savants and start landing Pro Bowlers at every round and a franchise QB in a later round (a/k/a the Seattle/SF plan). Yet, this same front office you don't have confidence in identifying the best QB in this draft.

My impression of this class of QBs is that the top 6 to 7 are worthy of Draft grades ranging from the second half of the first round thru the end of the second round. So without an obviously strong QB candidate (or "franchsie QB" if you like), it's really a crap shoot to a certain extent.
So if O'Brien is in love with one of those QBs, he should definitely draft him with the 1.1. But if fails to see that much difference between the QB prospects but thinks he can still draft one with promising potential in the second round, he should give serious consideration to drafting one of the very strong non-QB prospects like Clowney, Greg Robinson, or Watkins with his 1.1.

[barrett]

I saw them talking about the pro days of the 3 QBs on ESPN today and they said something interesting. Everyone agreed that the pro days reinforced the game tape and showed that Manziel CLEARLY has the best arm of the 3 (along with having the quickest release). Then they knocked Manziel and called him risky and small and injury prone for 20 minutes.

My question is this...What exactly makes Bortles a high upside guy if he has so much less arm strength than Manziel? What exactly makes him a safe pick compared to Manziel? Does it really just come down to the guy looking the part? His college performance, competition level, and ability to throw the ball is clearly 3rd best in the QB class but he has somehow become an option as the 1st overall pick?

I think Bortles is the only outcome that would bother me at 1.1. Give me a trade down, clowney, the pro ready Bridgewater, or the endless possibility of Manziel. Just don't give me Bortles. I doubt the AAC conference defenses he faced had more than 11 pro defenders when you add them all up.

[HPF Bob]

I generally agree that Bortles "looks the part". He has the size that the other two don't which should allow him to see over the 6-5 or 6-6 linemen downfield. That's the big problem for Manzeil is he may not be able to see past the modern NFL lines.

The counter-argument is that Manzeil excelled against SEC defenses which is about as close as you can get to the NFL without playing in the NFL. Bridgewater, like Bortles, played in the AAC but Bridgewater is older, had better stats and was trained on the pro-style offense while the other two played in spread offenses.

To be honest, if I am picking among the three, I want Bridgewater because he is the least likely to be a bust, has 6-2 height (not great, but good enough), decent wheels so he has the elusiveness to extend plays and most say he has a higher intelligence than Bortles or Manzeil. However, the Texan coaches are glowing over Bortles' ability to pick up new things.

But I think I'd rather have Clowney over any of them and then get Garappolo in Round 2 (or Manzeil if he falls that far) because of what Clowney could do with Watt on defense.

If I get a really sweet offer to trade down, though, I could fill other holes and still take one of the three QBs or an OT.

[Roy P]

I concur with this line of reasoning. I sort of like Bortles...I like Garoppolo because I can stratify my risk with a later pick. I like McCaron and he could be as good or better than Bortles, just not as physically imposing. I like Carr's arm. If I'm confident the position can be coached, give me Logan Thomas.

[Joshua]

Imagine if Manziel and Bortles heights were reversed. If Manziel was 6' 4", he'd be the consensus No. 1. If Bortles was 5'11", he's basically Case Keenum and would probably go late in the draft if at all.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Imagine if Manziel and Bortles heights were reversed.

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

[chuck]

That idiot yelled BOOM after completions during his pro day today? Really?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

If arm strength and legs don't matter and we want smart, then we should have just kept Schaub. Or just go with Fitzpatrick. He's plenty smart. There may be wastes of talent, but that doesn't mean raw talent, or a lack of it, can be ignored.

[nunusguy]

ESPN's Bill Polian on Johnny Manziel: "Arm strength is absolutely not an issue." Says Manziel has stronger arm than Bortles & Bridgewater.
http://inagist.com/all/449178733279064064/
For me this is interesting and semi significant because I've read that Bortles had the strongest arm among the "Big Three", but Polian is no bozo and the words
"stronger arm than Bortles & Bridgewater" are surprising.
Anyway, both Zack Mettenberger and Tom Savage of Pitt have bigger arms, and they are the kind of big, strapping guys OB reportedly favors physically speaking who can be had in the 2nd or later rounds.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by Keith

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

I'm with you on leaning heavily on the games themselves. And no one played better in the actual games than Manziel. He was a one-man wrecking crew against some of the best defenses in football. And the notion that he did it primarily with his legs is completely misplaced. During the actual games, he threw for more yards, averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns, took less sacks, and had a higher passer rating than Bridgewater (although he did throw more picks and his completion percentage was 1% lower - 71% to 70%). And no one played better when the pressure was on than Manziel. The guy relishes playing in big games and routinely did it with his arm. Just because ESPN generally runs his running highlights doesn't mean the throws weren't there.

[HPF Bob]

If Manzeil was a "one man wrecking crew", how come his LT will be Top 10 in this year's draft and his top WR a likely a first-round choice? Not to mention his LT last year was a first-rounder and his top WR was chosen despite a history of concussions? I think your characterization of A&M's offensive talent is vastly underrated.

One could say Manzeil had a better supporting cast than Bridgewater or Bortles had. Can you name any offensive players Louisville had besides Bridgewater? Can you name any offensive players UCF had beside Bortles and Storm Johnson? Yes, they played against weaker competition but they also played *alongside* weaker teammates than Manzeil had and still managed to shine.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

If arm strength and legs don't matter and we want smart, then we should have just kept Schaub. Or just go with Fitzpatrick. He's plenty smart. There may be wastes of talent, but that doesn't mean raw talent, or a lack of it, can be ignored.

Did I say they didn't matter? No, I said arm strength was OVERRATED. Different meaning. And I say it is overrated versus other QB attributes, namely poise and decision-making under pressure.

Originally Posted by Joshua

I'm with you on leaning heavily on the games themselves. And no one played better in the actual games than Manziel. He was a one-man wrecking crew against some of the best defenses in football. And the notion that he did it primarily with his legs is completely misplaced. During the actual games, he threw for more yards, averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns, took less sacks, and had a higher passer rating than Bridgewater (although he did throw more picks and his completion percentage was 1% lower - 71% to 70%). And no one played better when the pressure was on than Manziel. The guy relishes playing in big games and routinely did it with his arm. Just because ESPN generally runs his running highlights doesn't mean the throws weren't there.

I don't discredit anyone favoring Manziel over another QB in this draft for the right reasons. He has an interesting mix of skills and moxie, some of which just cannot be quantified. I really don't have much of a problem with his 'supposed' off-field concerns either. Brett Favre was no choir boy. Really, a combo of Favre and Steve Young is quite the comparison. That he says BOOM after hitting a wide open receiver on a pro day wearing camo shorts is kinda dumb, but I admire the competitiveness.

I don't think I implied Manziel was successful primarily because of his legs, but there is no doubt they were a significant contributing factor to his collegiate success. Almost the opposite is said of Bridgewater... lots of rumpled faces looking at his rushing stats, though he has ample pocket poise. He is the checkdown Charlie. It does not wow you come draft day.

The numbers seem to validate that Manziel is arguably the best downfield passer in this field based on college stats, but when I consider what I suspect BOB's offense to be, I expect more of a short passing game than a deep one. And there are sites and articles like this one below that consistently demonstrate college stats where Bridgewater is the preferred player under a blitz.

How Do They Do Under Pressure?

I’ve got quite a few stats for these QBs, but for the sake of brevity I’ve picked their completion percentage while being blitzed and under pressure to highlight. For reference, a blitz counts regardless of whether the O-line picks it up, but under pressure is when the QB is moved off his spot or has to get rid of the ball quicker than anticipated.

Bridgewater - Manziel
Pressure: 62.96% - 60.38%
No Pressure: 79.78% - 78.27%
Blitz: 76.92% - 68.57%
No Blitz: 77.97% - 78.50%

- When looking at both categories, Bridgewater is the clear winner. He and Bortles both complete about 63% of their passes when under pressure, but Bridgewater is heads above the other QBs against the blitz – nearly matching his ability when there are no extra rushers. ...

- Manziel’s just about average in both categories where he’s just about where you’d expect a top notch college QB to be.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...back-conundrum

So, again, my preference is the guy with the short area poise and smarts that excels in the short-to-medium passing game under a blitz as well as under no pressure.

Let's recall too what Bill O'Brien wants in a quarterback.


1. They have to be able to throw the ball accurately. They don't have to be the greatest athletes in the world.
2. They have to be able to make good decisions. You can judge that off the field.
3. They have to be intelligent, with a great football IQ.

[Blitzwood]

Ok, I'll play. No trades on this one for the sake of time. Based on draftsite.


1.1. J. Clowney, DE, S. Carolina
2.33. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
3.65. Billy Turner, OT, North Dakota St
4.101. Demarcus Lawrence, OLB, Boise St
4.135. Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
5.141. Tom Savage, QB, Pitt
6.177. Jordan Tripp, ILB, Montana
6.181. Ryan Carrethers, DT, Arkansas State
6.211. Shamar Stephen, DT, Connecticut
7.a. Kadeem Edwards, OG, Tennessee St
7.b. Conner Shaw, QB, S. Carolina