O'Brien Coy About Draft Options

[HPF Bob]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/n...johnny-clowney

Not that O'Brien is the decision maker here. I think either Smith or McNair makes this choice with O'Brien (and Crennel on defense) giving input when asked.

My head tells me Clowney or trade down but my gut says we are picking Bortles.

[Roy P]

Trading down to 6 would be good so the Falcons can have Clowney. It's a calculated risk that Bortles would still be there or not, but with extra picks the team could always get a QB to groom in the 2nd round and fill other holes. I'm not sure if the Texans are 'In Love' with Bortles but it may be like when drunk men are at a bar near closing time and start getting desperate to fill a need, and start discounting all the ugly flaws that could be overlooked.

[HPF Bob]

That's kind of what I fear - seeing these QBs with "beer goggles".

Scouts Inc (via ESPN.com) lists Bridgewater as the 8th best NFL prospect. Bortles is the 10th best and Manzeil is the 21st.

If the Texans take a non-QB at 1-1 then get to the 24th pick of the first round with Manzeil and/or Garropolo still available, the Texans could package 2-1, 5-1 and/or 6-1 to trade up with Cincinnati (24th pick) or San Diego (25th pick) ahead of Cleveland (26th pick) to get their QBOTF. Maybe we offer them Keenum or Yates as a bonus. Yates beat Cincy in a playoff game two years ago and he may have more value to the Bengals than anyone in the league.

The genius would be that the Texans don't miss a round because we have the comp pick near the bottom of the 4th round and the Raiders pick near the top of the 6th round to approximate the draft hole we are dealing away.

Yes, we could sit and wait until 2-1 for that QB but we risk the Jaguars or the Browns trading up to jump ahead of us. Once the comp picks are added to the simulator, I'll have to run the scenario and see what that does to our draft.

We could go:

1-1 Clowney
1-24 Manzeil or Garoppolo
3-1 right tackle
4-1 ILB
4-comp RB
6-5 depth
6-comp depth
7-1 depth
7-comp depth

[chuck]

I'm pretty sure the Jags and the Browns will take a QB with their first overall picks. And fortunately for us both of those teams are run by morons so we should be left with an appealing selection. Of course it remains to be seen whether the Texans are also run by a moron.

[Roy P]

I see Jacksonville going either Bortles or Manziel and the Browns taking Derek Carr #26. I could see the Texans trading up for Garoppolo back into the First round, I know I'd be tempted if Carr was selected. Still thinking I want to fill more holes...We signed Lewis, but I want Deone Bucannon. At RT I want Joel Bitonio. Wanting a DE like Kareem Martin or Trent Murphy and an OLB like Marcus Smith (unless we traded down and select Barr). Thinking RB can be gotten late with Jerrrick McKinnon.

[Nconroe]

Assuming Clowney is so good that we need to take him at 1-1.

Otherwise speculating about trades or rnd 2 on is fun

Supposed to be a deep draft so why trade up.

It would take a lot to get me out of 1-1.

I could see us taking DT in sccond or third rnd.

It might be QB's don't go till much latter in draft than you guys think.

Not sure if we pick one or two QB but I think whoever, wherever the QB is picked he will be atleast 6'5".

[HPF Bob]

If we draft a QB, he'll be at least 5-11. I can guarantee that.

Fitzpatrick is only 6-2.

If we take Clowney, we have to be ready to accept we won't be in a position to draft a QB at 1-1 for some time in the future but then you have to ask if Bortles is worth a 1-1 and if he isn't, what alternate plan would be suggested for getting a QB who can be a SB-caliber quarterback.

I tried my trade-ups in the simulator and they were not getting accepted, although I could not add Yates or Keenum to the deal like I'd like to.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If we draft a QB, he'll be at least 5-11. I can guarantee that.

Fitzpatrick is only 6-2.

If we take Clowney, we have to be ready to accept we won't be in a position to draft a QB at 1-1 for some time in the future but then you have to ask if Bortles is worth a 1-1 and if he isn't, what alternate plan would be suggested for getting a QB who can be a SB-caliber quarterback.

I tried my trade-ups in the simulator and they were not getting accepted, although I could not add Yates or Keenum to the deal like I'd like to.

The alternate plan would be to develop a solid supporting cast led by the defense, that way a team can get a "SB-caliber quarterback" in the second or third round just as San Fran and Seattle did.

[Joshua]

that sounds more like hope than a plan. And SF and Seattle benefitted from drafting their guys when the league's view of the QB was changing. JF is the closest thing to Wilson in this draft and he definitely won't hang around until the 3rd round even though a lot of people don't think he is the prospect Wilson was. And next year, the closest thing to Kaepernick is Mariota, want to bet me where he is drafted? I say he'll be closer to the 1st pick than the 2nd round. Want that action?

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

that sounds more like hope than a plan. And SF and Seattle benefitted from drafting their guys when the league's view of the QB was changing. JF is the closest thing to Wilson in this draft and he definitely won't hang around until the 3rd round even though a lot of people don't think he is the prospect Wilson was. And next year, the closest thing to Kaepernick is Mariota, want to bet me where he is drafted? I say he'll be closer to the 1st pick than the 2nd round. Want that action?

If you are the Houston Texans, "hope"(AKA as day-dreaming) would be deceiving yourself into thinking there's somebody in this years Draft like Andrew Luck or John Elway.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

If you are the Houston Texans, "hope"(AKA as day-dreaming) would be deceiving yourself into thinking there's somebody in this years Draft like Andrew Luck or John Elway.

Well, I don't recall ever saying that there was but I'll respond nonetheless. I seem to recall that one of the last drafts that supposedly didn't have an "Aaron Rodgers"-type player in it was the draft when the Packers actually took Aaron Rodgers. So you never know.

But to return to the QBs in this draft, are you suggesting that there is not a single QB in this draft that has the potential to develop into a franchise QB and that this crop is so weak that the average QB available in some future 3rd round grades out higher?

And finally, I see a contradiction in your plan where the Texans front office somehow become draft savants and start landing Pro Bowlers at every round and a franchise QB in a later round (a/k/a the Seattle/SF plan). Yet, this same front office you don't have confidence in identifying the best QB in this draft.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Well, I don't recall ever saying that there was but I'll respond nonetheless. I seem to recall that one of the last drafts that supposedly didn't have an "Aaron Rodgers"-type player in it was the draft when the Packers actually took Aaron Rodgers. So you never know.

But to return to the QBs in this draft, are you suggesting that there is not a single QB in this draft that has the potential to develop into a franchise QB and that this crop is so weak that the average QB available in some future 3rd round grades out higher?

And finally, I see a contradiction in your plan where the Texans front office somehow become draft savants and start landing Pro Bowlers at every round and a franchise QB in a later round (a/k/a the Seattle/SF plan). Yet, this same front office you don't have confidence in identifying the best QB in this draft.

My impression of this class of QBs is that the top 6 to 7 are worthy of Draft grades ranging from the second half of the first round thru the end of the second round. So without an obviously strong QB candidate (or "franchsie QB" if you like), it's really a crap shoot to a certain extent.
So if O'Brien is in love with one of those QBs, he should definitely draft him with the 1.1. But if fails to see that much difference between the QB prospects but thinks he can still draft one with promising potential in the second round, he should give serious consideration to drafting one of the very strong non-QB prospects like Clowney, Greg Robinson, or Watkins with his 1.1.

[barrett]

I saw them talking about the pro days of the 3 QBs on ESPN today and they said something interesting. Everyone agreed that the pro days reinforced the game tape and showed that Manziel CLEARLY has the best arm of the 3 (along with having the quickest release). Then they knocked Manziel and called him risky and small and injury prone for 20 minutes.

My question is this...What exactly makes Bortles a high upside guy if he has so much less arm strength than Manziel? What exactly makes him a safe pick compared to Manziel? Does it really just come down to the guy looking the part? His college performance, competition level, and ability to throw the ball is clearly 3rd best in the QB class but he has somehow become an option as the 1st overall pick?

I think Bortles is the only outcome that would bother me at 1.1. Give me a trade down, clowney, the pro ready Bridgewater, or the endless possibility of Manziel. Just don't give me Bortles. I doubt the AAC conference defenses he faced had more than 11 pro defenders when you add them all up.

[Roy P]

I concur with this line of reasoning. I sort of like Bortles...I like Garoppolo because I can stratify my risk with a later pick. I like McCaron and he could be as good or better than Bortles, just not as physically imposing. I like Carr's arm. If I'm confident the position can be coached, give me Logan Thomas.

[HPF Bob]

I generally agree that Bortles "looks the part". He has the size that the other two don't which should allow him to see over the 6-5 or 6-6 linemen downfield. That's the big problem for Manzeil is he may not be able to see past the modern NFL lines.

The counter-argument is that Manzeil excelled against SEC defenses which is about as close as you can get to the NFL without playing in the NFL. Bridgewater, like Bortles, played in the AAC but Bridgewater is older, had better stats and was trained on the pro-style offense while the other two played in spread offenses.

To be honest, if I am picking among the three, I want Bridgewater because he is the least likely to be a bust, has 6-2 height (not great, but good enough), decent wheels so he has the elusiveness to extend plays and most say he has a higher intelligence than Bortles or Manzeil. However, the Texan coaches are glowing over Bortles' ability to pick up new things.

But I think I'd rather have Clowney over any of them and then get Garappolo in Round 2 (or Manzeil if he falls that far) because of what Clowney could do with Watt on defense.

If I get a really sweet offer to trade down, though, I could fill other holes and still take one of the three QBs or an OT.

[Joshua]

Imagine if Manziel and Bortles heights were reversed. If Manziel was 6' 4", he'd be the consensus No. 1. If Bortles was 5'11", he's basically Case Keenum and would probably go late in the draft if at all.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Imagine if Manziel and Bortles heights were reversed.

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

[chuck]

That idiot yelled BOOM after completions during his pro day today? Really?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

If arm strength and legs don't matter and we want smart, then we should have just kept Schaub. Or just go with Fitzpatrick. He's plenty smart. There may be wastes of talent, but that doesn't mean raw talent, or a lack of it, can be ignored.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by Keith

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

I'm with you on leaning heavily on the games themselves. And no one played better in the actual games than Manziel. He was a one-man wrecking crew against some of the best defenses in football. And the notion that he did it primarily with his legs is completely misplaced. During the actual games, he threw for more yards, averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns, took less sacks, and had a higher passer rating than Bridgewater (although he did throw more picks and his completion percentage was 1% lower - 71% to 70%). And no one played better when the pressure was on than Manziel. The guy relishes playing in big games and routinely did it with his arm. Just because ESPN generally runs his running highlights doesn't mean the throws weren't there.