Official Texans vs. Raiders Game Thread, 11/17/2013

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Heh, at this point I would have to consider what sort of negative impacts the coaching or gameplanning might have on his production.

That aside, I don't think it is a fluke that he has struggled in 2nd halves... NFL teams adjust.

But the Texans don't counter (adjust). So many times in the 2nd halves, I've seen Keenum swarmed and not a checkdown guy in sight.... I really don't think he's (Keenum) a first-half QB only - the 2nd halves have been puzzling to say the least....

All of those great stats Keenum has have come from broken plays he has extended due to his healthy legs feasting on a slacking secondary that forgets to keep their man in front of them. I watch kids playing flag football learn to make this defensive adjustment, so of course pro teams can too.

Well, we all know the deal with stats but they can't be dismissed when evaluating.... Stats are evidentiary - eyeballs fill in the rest.....

Every QB in the league is taped/filmed yet some still manage to get the job done on Sundays for all 4 quarters. At this point in time, I'm pointing the finger at the coaching for not counter-adjusting. Not so sure the problem is Keenum and I'm really not sure what "fresh legs" has to do with it. Probably helps to have "fresh legs" when you're running for your life....

And I mention "healthy legs"... a) he's still young, and b) he hasn't made it hardly a month yet. Point being, those fresh legs he has now to extend these plays may not be so fresh in December and January when it would (in theory) really count in future seasons.

Which is part of why he looks like a career backup to me and maybe Flutie is an interesting comparison. The kind of QB that could play an extended stretch of amazing football, but not a decade-long starter that the team may have an opportunity to select in April's draft.

And Brees is definitely the upside, but consider too, Brees is the huge exception to the rule. For all I know, Raider fans think UDFA McGloin is the next Tony Romo, not Case Keenum. How's that for persective?

And why can't Keenum be an exception (like Brees)? Brees has been running around in the backfield for 13 years - good thing he's still got "fresh legs". Keenum's ability to extend plays is a positive..... He's not a Cunningham/VY/RGIII/etc type, IMO.

If I was a Raider fan, I'd be thrilled. I think I heard McGloin has earned another start... This is the way stars are born (seriously)...... McGloin has certainly got the league's attention after Sunday.

Keenum may very well end up career backup or even a flash-in-the-pan. Just, some of us aren't so quick to slap the gavel down just yet. At this point in time, I'm betting a lot of offensive coordinators around the league would love to have him....

[popanot]

The frustrating part is Keenum will likely be part of this team next year whether it's in a starting role or backup role, and anyone not named Gary Kubiak knows Schaub's time is done. Keenum should be playing as much as possible in every imaginable game situation as to prepare him for next year. Kubiak's decision to put Schaub in the game was incredibly arrogant, naïve, totally uncalled for and unproductive and he should have been fired for it.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by popanot

The frustrating part is Keenum will likely be part of this team next year whether it's in a starting role or backup role, and anyone not named Gary Kubiak knows Schaub's time is done. Keenum should be playing as much as possible in every imaginable game situation as to prepare him for next year. Kubiak's decision to put Schaub in the game was incredibly arrogant, naïve, totally uncalled for and unproductive and he should have been fired for it.

I'm not so sure about that. Really depends on if there is a coaching change or not. If McNair actually pulls the trigger, and I'm still thinking he won't, Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. We'll likely have a high 1 regardless, and a new regime will want new blood @ the QB spot.

[HPF Bob]

p.s. - those "well-respected" Astros just got dissed on Jeopardy!, Chuck.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ardy-question/

[chuck]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

p.s. - those "well-respected" Astros just got dissed on Jeopardy!, Chuck.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ardy-question/

My overall point was that the Astros are respected within the professional baseball community, not within the game show writers' community.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by WMH

I'm not so sure about that. Really depends on if there is a coaching change or not. If McNair actually pulls the trigger, and I'm still thinking he won't, Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. We'll likely have a high 1 regardless, and a new regime will want new blood @ the QB spot.

A new coach will either pick him as the QB (unlikely),or send him out of town. No way will a new coach want a local cult hero as the backup to a hand picked rookie. Unfortunately for Case, his best chance at playing time is Kubiak keeping his job.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by WMH

I'm not so sure about that. Really depends on if there is a coaching change or not. If McNair actually pulls the trigger, and I'm still thinking he won't, Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. We'll likely have a high 1 regardless, and a new regime will want new blood @ the QB spot.

I don't disagree with what you say, but even if we do draft a QB and he starts, I think the odds are still good Keenum is here next year. His odds go up dramatically if Kubiak is still here. My point being, Schaub is done and playing him over Keenum in any situation other than injury makes ZERO sense and is totally unproductive as far as the future of this team.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

A new coach will either pick him as the QB (unlikely),or send him out of town. No way will a new coach want a local cult hero as the backup to a hand picked rookie. Unfortunately for Case, his best chance at playing time is Kubiak keeping his job.

I think it depends on who the coach is and what scheme they run. I don't think someone like Sumlin - just to use one example - would be scared or intimidated at all having Keenum as the backup or short-term starter.

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by WMH

...Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. ....

I think those are debateable or not overly strong concerns. Results seem pretty good for a QB. Team does need to improve for sure.

Case is 6'1" which is not really short. There are other successful QB's even shorter right now and most of big names in past were shorter than this. Taller does not mean better.

Not at all fast, in what way?, he seems to have plenty of escapability and movement to avoid lots of trouble and has some good runs for gains. This seems kind of a off base complaint to me, not what my eyes have seen.

Recognizing the blitz - could be, maybe, I suppose lots of QBs have lots to learn their first year or two in the league. Seems the OL and RB whiffing on blocks is a worse concern. I mean what I've seen is Defense is on Keenum really quick on some of these plays. Seems more than fixable with experience.

Accuracy and arm strength seem pretty good from what I've seen.

Team leadership is also pretty high it appears.

Local cult hero, perhaps for some? not to me since I didn't go to UH. I do think a new coach would possibly want his own choice in there, whether Case gets to compete, not sure.

I am glad Keenum is the starter this coming weekend and hope that continues the rest of the year so we can see more before all these decisions need to be made.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by popanot

The frustrating part is Keenum will likely be part of this team next year whether it's in a starting role or backup role, and anyone not named Gary Kubiak knows Schaub's time is done. Keenum should be playing as much as possible in every imaginable game situation as to prepare him for next year. Kubiak's decision to put Schaub in the game was incredibly arrogant, naïve, totally uncalled for and unproductive and he should have been fired for it.

Yep. In this game day thread, I actually typed in an expletive (something I try to avoid) when Schaub came in. I might be the last person in Houston who was OK with Kubes coming back next year, but it was like watching someone commit career suicide. (Or, if you're into graphic movies, watching someone slit their own throat).

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

I think those are debateable or not overly strong concerns. Results seem pretty good for a QB. Team does need to improve for sure.

I would agree, he has been good for the Texans. But is that a positive for Keenum, or a negative against Schuab? I'm thinking that we have been so deprived of adequate QB play for a while now, we are seeing things that we just aren't accustomed to seeing. He has made some great plays, school yard style and no doubt it has been fun to watch.

BUT, my dings against Case are likely the same one an incoming coach would have. Based on the sample size, would you rather have Case, Mariotta, Bridgewater, JFF, Taj Boyd, etc?

I'm of the opinion that Case would lose that battle with all of them if anyone but Kubiak is making the decision.

[popanot]

I don't think there is any question the Texans will draft a QB next year and that QB will compete for the starting job regardless how well Keenum does or who is here as far as QB and/or coaching staff. When to draft one is up for debate, but it would be absolutely foolish for this franchise NOT to draft a QB. Here's what we know...

Schaub = Out - No way the fans let McNair off the hook with Schaub
Yates = Out - Yates who? I'm nearly as confident in saying he's gone just as much as I'm am saying Schaub is gone
Keenum = Unknown - Way too many playing and coaching factors to determine his future right now
FA QB = Doubtful - Cutler's the only starting-level FA QB I know of at this time and who wants him? Weeden, Vick, Blabbert??? Bleh!!

If you look at the above, we'll definitely need 1 or 2 more QBs and the draft or a trade (Cousins - or to a lesser extent RG3, maybe?) are the only viable options.

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by WMH

Based on the sample size, would you rather have Case, Mariotta, Bridgewater, JFF, Taj Boyd, etc?

I'm of the opinion that Case would lose that battle with all of them if anyone but Kubiak is making the decision.

Fair enough, I guess I plan to hold off on my opinion on Keenums rating till after next six games.

It does look like Bridgewater and Mariota are becoming near consensus top two picks at this time, both of these guys are kind of skinny at 210 pounds.

You forgot Derek Carr and Johnny Manziel.

And agree we will likely draft a QB somewhere in top 3 rounds.

some info on top qb's here, some you mentioned are shorter than Case.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...p-qbs-fit-best

[barrett]

Case is by far the best QB on the Texans right now. I am a huge fan. I got goosebumps at the Sunday night game against the Colts when he came out of the tunnel and the stadium went nuts. He needs to play every snap he is healthy for the rest of this season. I have always thought Yates was terrible and don't need to see anything out of him. Schaub should only see the field if Case goes down.

But I have seen nothing that makes me think Case is the future QB. All of the timing routes in our offense are gone. I have not seen him hit a seam route, an out that did not include a moving pocket or scramble, the deep in (AJ's bread and butter for years), and the drag has been limited (he hit Graham late off a designed roll out that turned into a scramble and an across the body throw). He doesn't pick up blitzes at all. I said that after the first week, after the second, and again now.

He throws a beautiful deep ball and escapes the pocket. He is accurate on the run. Could an offense be tailored to him and those strengths? Perhaps. I think our inflexible staff has actually been very flexible with him and given him a ton of shotgun and even some pistol. He has far outplayed Schaub in his 4 starts, but we have still averaged just over 20 points per game in his starts (bottom third of the league in the BUF/STL/ARI territory). And our 2nd half output has been anemic in his 4 starts (6,3,7,and 6 that came from Schaub).

WMH hit the nail on the head when he said the great improvement in QB play is more a condemnation of Schaub than an endorsenment of Case.

Does all of this mean he is incapable of being an NFL QB? Not at all. But I have never seen a new HC bet his success and future on an UDFA with 10 games in the NFL. A new coach will rightfully want the right to be judged on his guy. Especially when that new coach will probably have a top 5 pick to spend. And if we are going with a high draft pick, I don't want Case on the team. You don't want a young guy who is loved in the locker room and worshipped by the fans as your backup while you develop a young QB. You want a veteran who is not a viable starting QB. Now if we went with a veteran next year, I'd love Case as competition/backup plan, but not as the guy a 1st round pick is having to look over his shoulder at.

So like I said, the only way I see Case playing for this team next year is with Kubiak at the controls. Kubiak can then sell McNair on the fact that he unearthed Case, and the 1st round pick can be spent helping compete next year rather than a semi rebuild. So if Case plays great and wins half the games down the stretch (JAX 2 Xs) we may end up with Case and Gary next year. I'd rather have another QB and anybody else.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

........have Case, Mariotta, Bridgewater, JFF, Taj Boyd, etc?

On that list, I see two Case Keenums, a Jake Locker and two Geno Smiths.

Not to discourage discussion, but this can better be answered in the off season..... A head-to-head competition with each can never be answered. A hypothetical would just boil down to every individual's opinions....

If we get to see Case the rest of the year, we can better evaluate him... and then, just as important, what will happen with the coaching staff?

Nconroe: JFF = Johnny effin' Football

[HPF Bob]

Re: Reading the blitz - something only experience teaches and a QB from a spread offense is going to have trouble diagnosing pro defenses until he learns where the reads are in *real time*. That means playing experience and that's what Case is getting now.

Re: UDFA QB. Kinda nonsense. Would an incoming head coach turn down Tom Brady just because he was a 5th-rounder?

A lot of it will depend on what type of offense a new coach wants to run. If it's a West Coast offense like Kubiak's was based on, the expereience will be a plus. If it is not, there may be other players in the offense who aren't a good fit either.

p.s. - It's a shame this isn't one of those years with three can't miss QBs at the top of the draft board. I'm still solidly in the Matthews camp.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Re: Reading the blitz - something only experience teaches and a QB from a spread offense is going to have trouble diagnosing pro defenses until he learns where the reads are in *real time*. That means playing experience and that's what Case is getting now.

Re: UDFA QB. Kinda nonsense. Would an incoming head coach turn down Tom Brady just because he was a 5th-rounder?

A lot of it will depend on what type of offense a new coach wants to run. If it's a West Coast offense like Kubiak's was based on, the expereience will be a plus. If it is not, there may be other players in the offense who aren't a good fit either.

p.s. - It's a shame this isn't one of those years with three can't miss QBs at the top of the draft board. I'm still solidly in the Matthews camp.

Bob, when was the last time an incoming head coach chose an UDFA with fewer than 10 pro games as his starting QB? Surely if Tom Brady's existence makes it nonsense it has happened before right? Surely some new coach bet his job and future on someone else's UDFA with a limited track record? (and just to correct you, Brady was a 6th rounder)

Oh wait...there's not one. OK.

Perception is reality in the NFL. That's how the Browns fleeced Indy for a 1st for Richardson. Until a young guy accomplishes something, he is largely defined by his draft value. High draft picks who don't perform at all and get cut in their first 2 years always catch on because it is accepted they are talented and the new organization thinks they are smarter than the old one and can get performance out of them.

Keenum has a limited track record of slightly above average QB play with an 0-4 record as a starter. He was passed on 7 times by every team in the league less than 2 years ago. Look at it this way. If Keenum is cut loose by the Texans this offseason do you think that an NFL team will give him a starting job. I mean pay him low starter money and enter training camp with him as their #1 QB? If not, why would a new coach who has no ties to him.

A new coach will want a QB of his own. There are only a few situations where a new coach doesn't get a new QB..

1) When he is hired to coach a contender with a star QB in place,
2) When he is hired on the strength of his ability to turn around a struggling QB who is thought to be "talented",
3) When the team is judged so bad and the QB class so weak that a team decides to fix something else first and stink for a year before getting a QB the following year.
4) Or when too much is invested (financially or in draft pick spent) in the current QB to replace him just yet.

The Texans don't really fall in any of those categories. So we would need a never happened before situation where some new coach bet his career on a 3rd stringer who put together an average stretch of QB play for a team that was crashing and losing all of their games. Now if he reels off 6 wins in a row while actually scoring points in the 2nd half it is a different discussion, but it is almost certainly Kubiak as his head coach in that scenario. Basically if he wins enough to be a real consideration as the Franchise's long term QB, than he probably saves Kubiak's job. If he doesn't, no way does a new guy keep him.

[Joshua]

Agree with Barrett. Just don't see any way a new coach would risk his career on an undrafted QB that literally no one wanted a mere 2 years ago.

And Brady is such an exception to the rule it's pointless to even bring him up. However, if you do want to hold him up as an example, doesn't that also lead to the conclusion that we shouldn't worry about the QB position because we can just draft a future HOFer in the 6th round?

[Nconroe]

Undrafted quarterback Jeff Garcia from San Jose State never led a team to a Super Bowl, but his staying power in the NFL makes him worthy of being on this list.****

Entering the league in 1999 after being an undrafted free agent passer who first played in the CFL after college, Garcia became the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback. He then went on to make four Pro Bowl appearances in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2007—the first three with the 49ers and the final one with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

[Nconroe]

astern Illinois quarterback Tony Romo was an undrafted pickup by the Dallas Cowboys in 2003. He remained a backup on the roster until 2006, when then-starter Drew Bledsoe was injured and Romo was put in the starting position.