Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[HPF Bob]

Question:

How many games have the Broncos, Ravens and Patriots lost the last four weeks?

Answer: none. We went 4-0 in November and didn't gain any ground on anyone. Thinking those teams can continue to play above the rest of the AFC is not unrealistic at all.

If the Patriots played Houston in Houston, I'd feel better about the Texans perhaps winning it. If the Ravens played Denver in Denver, I could see the Broncos winning that. But the fact that those key games (and SF at NE) are in Foxboro and Baltimore, means the home team probably wins in cold weather.

The Ravens are a much better team at home. Just look up the scores. If Big Ben doesn't play against the Ravens, Baltimore wins that too.

BTW, worst case scenario is if Schaub and Foster get hurt and we limp in at 10-6.

[cadams]

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by cadams

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

Its the Houston Pro Football Illness. People catch it every now and then, and if you don't watch it, it can be contagious. Thankfully, it usually doesn't last more than 6 days, at least it hasn't this year.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cadams

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

There you have it. A perfect explanation for why everything will break against us.

Of course you could spin it all the opposite way if you felt like it. Baltimore and NE didn't lose in November but made up no ground...

How about a simple question. What kind of odds would you need to place money on both those teams going undefeated the rest of the way?

[barrett]

I meant to quote Bob there.

[Arky]

I know one thing: MNF matchup of Texans vs. Pats two games from now is already being discussed/anticipated as the NFL Game of the Year in one of the (national) sports betting forums I peruse. Would not surprise me if the Pats are a small favorite in this one.... I'm just hoping the Texans will be healthy enough to acquit themselves well..... But right now, a W at Tennessee is just as important...

[cadams]

on the pats, i wouldn't count out miami from steeling a win from them in one of their two remaining games either.

[chuck]

Let's face it, we're going to find out which are the truly elite teams down this stretch. Each of the four teams we're discussing will have ample opportunity to make its case.