Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by barrett

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by barrett

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

gotta agree here. i do think the texans drop at least one game, if not two before the end of the season, but i think you have to say that either the pats or ravens (if not both) probably lose a game as well.

baltimore is not good enough to win out. they have played terribly on the road this year and should have lost yesterday to san diego

[HPF Bob]

Question:

How many games have the Broncos, Ravens and Patriots lost the last four weeks?

Answer: none. We went 4-0 in November and didn't gain any ground on anyone. Thinking those teams can continue to play above the rest of the AFC is not unrealistic at all.

If the Patriots played Houston in Houston, I'd feel better about the Texans perhaps winning it. If the Ravens played Denver in Denver, I could see the Broncos winning that. But the fact that those key games (and SF at NE) are in Foxboro and Baltimore, means the home team probably wins in cold weather.

The Ravens are a much better team at home. Just look up the scores. If Big Ben doesn't play against the Ravens, Baltimore wins that too.

BTW, worst case scenario is if Schaub and Foster get hurt and we limp in at 10-6.

[cadams]

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by cadams

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

Its the Houston Pro Football Illness. People catch it every now and then, and if you don't watch it, it can be contagious. Thankfully, it usually doesn't last more than 6 days, at least it hasn't this year.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cadams

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

There you have it. A perfect explanation for why everything will break against us.

Of course you could spin it all the opposite way if you felt like it. Baltimore and NE didn't lose in November but made up no ground...

How about a simple question. What kind of odds would you need to place money on both those teams going undefeated the rest of the way?

[barrett]

I meant to quote Bob there.