Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[HPF Bob]

ESPN has just posted their "Playoff Machine" online

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Just enter all your "what if" scenarios and see how it comes out.

[Keith]

So the Texans just missed clinching a wild card spot this weekend, but doing so next Sunday is very likely.

A Texans win over the Titans, and I believe they not only clinch a wild card spot, but they will have clinched no worse than the #5 seed.

Even if the Texans lose, a Dolphins loss (against the Patriots) clinches the #6 seed. Or, the combo of both the Bengals and Steelers losing gives them at least the #6 seed as well. If all four teams lose (Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, and Steelers), then the Texans are the #5.

They cannot yet clinch the division in Week 13 as the Colts are still too close with both head-to-head games to play.

ok... scenarios aside, the team seems likely to get one of the top 2 seeds with the big Week 14 match in New England pending. The likely AFC wild cards seem weak this season (aside from an interesting Denver-Indy matchup), so the Texans seem likely to host Denver or Baltimore in the divisional round then possibly the Pats for the AFC championship.

Based on how the pass D has looked the last two games, a shootout against Tom Brady seems daunting, but legit talk about deep AFC playoff matchups in late November is refreshing around here.

[popanot]

Looks like "Next Man Up" applies to the D this year. Hopefully Wade and crew can find the right recipe of players and dial up the right schemes to keep the W's coming. I think we should be good if we can get two more AFC wins out of the remaining games. Sure would've been nice had the Chargers taken care of business and beat the Ravens yesterday.

[HPF Bob]

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

[WMH]

I don't see Bmore winning out.
Thier remaining schedule is brutal:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Pittsburgh 4:25 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 9 @Washington 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs Denver 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs New York (G) 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 30 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS

In all honesty, I can see them dropping 2 or even 3 of those games.

Just my opinion, but I believe the top 2 will come from HOU, NE or DEN, in that order.

Denvers remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Tampa Bay 4:05 PM FOX
14 Thu, Dec 6 @Oakland 8:20 PM NFL
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Baltimore 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 4:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 4:25 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Tampa, who's been playing pretty well, and @Bmore.

NE's remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 @Miami 1:00 PM CBS
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Houston, , and San Fran.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by barrett

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by barrett

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

gotta agree here. i do think the texans drop at least one game, if not two before the end of the season, but i think you have to say that either the pats or ravens (if not both) probably lose a game as well.

baltimore is not good enough to win out. they have played terribly on the road this year and should have lost yesterday to san diego

[HPF Bob]

Question:

How many games have the Broncos, Ravens and Patriots lost the last four weeks?

Answer: none. We went 4-0 in November and didn't gain any ground on anyone. Thinking those teams can continue to play above the rest of the AFC is not unrealistic at all.

If the Patriots played Houston in Houston, I'd feel better about the Texans perhaps winning it. If the Ravens played Denver in Denver, I could see the Broncos winning that. But the fact that those key games (and SF at NE) are in Foxboro and Baltimore, means the home team probably wins in cold weather.

The Ravens are a much better team at home. Just look up the scores. If Big Ben doesn't play against the Ravens, Baltimore wins that too.

BTW, worst case scenario is if Schaub and Foster get hurt and we limp in at 10-6.

[HPF Bob]

Looks like Denver is winning so it should be:

1. Houston 12-3 (has tiebreaker over Denver)
2. Denver 12-3
3. New England 11-4
4. Baltimore 10-5
5. Indianapolis 10-5
5. Cincinnati 9-6

It seems extremely likely that if Houston beats Indy, these standings will look the same next week But if Indy wins, Houston drops to the #3 seed and hosts Cincy in the first round followed by a return trip to New England.

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

We have to really hope it stays this way.

[Arky]

Though the talk I've heard is Texans as #1 or #3 seed, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that the Texans could end up the #2 seed. Not likely, but here's the scenario: Texans don't show up again and lose to the Colts, Broncos win over KC, and New England loses to Miami. Miami has won their last two by a combined 48-13 (albeit, Jax and Buffalo) but perhaps New England doesn't take the game seriously and rest starters half a game or so and Miami plays a good game. The spread is roughly NE by 11 and dropping (i.e. money is coming in on Miami). The game is in Foxboro, however......Just something to consider.....

Of course, the Texans could solve everything by taking care of the Colts..... I'd rather see the Texans have a bye week to heal despite the "going to get rusty" argument...