Arian Foster a potential holdout?

[Nconroe]

yeah, hard to know who to believe in those negotiations, OD atleast likely wishes he would have accepted their offer instead of holding out.

I guess they will make a fair offer to Foster, hopefully he will take it without trying to break the bank or hold out for absolute no. 1 money. Hopefully Texans and players have learned something on all of this.

[HPF Bob]

I won't worry about this until there's a next season.

After the Domanick Davis, Ahman Green and Steve Slaton experiences, I wouldn't expect McNair to go overboard on a contract for Foster.

[NBT]

I think McNair will treat Foster fairly, but not $10M/year fairly. Something in the $1.5 to $3M/year range would be pretty fair for both sides.

[Keith]

The Texans didn't open their pocketbooks for Slaton after his big season. Granted, Foster's was even better, but the Texans have the leverage regardless.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by NBT

I think McNair will treat Foster fairly, but not $10M/year fairly. Something in the $1.5 to $3M/year range would be pretty fair for both sides.

No offense, but I don't think you've looked at what NFL players are making lately if you think $1.5 to $3 million is fair for the league's leading rusher. Last year, 31 year old Chester Taylor got 4 years, $12.5 million (a little over $3 million/year) to be Forte's backup in Chicago after rushing for a whopping 338 yards the year before. 32 year old Thomas Jones got 2 years/$5 million, and I seem to recall people complaining that the Texans didn't offer this for him because $5 million is basically nothing in the NFL. And this is the high end of what you think the Texans will or should offer?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Joshua

No offense, but I don't think you've looked at what NFL players are making lately if you think $1.5 to $3 million is fair for the league's leading rusher. Last year, 31 year old Chester Taylor got 4 years, $12.5 million (a little over $3 million/year) to be Forte's backup in Chicago after rushing for a whopping 338 yards the year before. 32 year old Thomas Jones got 2 years/$5 million, and I seem to recall people complaining that the Texans didn't offer this for him because $5 million is basically nothing in the NFL. And this is the high end of what you think the Texans will or should offer?

That is what those guys got as free agents. Foster is not. NFL players know that Free Agency is their payday. Teams know that you have to overpay in free agency. Foster will want to make more money and everything else is speculation right now.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by barrett

That is what those guys got as free agents. Foster is not. NFL players know that Free Agency is their payday. Teams know that you have to overpay in free agency. Foster will want to make more money and everything else is speculation right now.

All your points are undoubtedly true. However, the reason I listed these deals is that they represent what has been paid lately to sign RBs to a long term deals and Foster's agent will almost certainly rely on them to come up with an asking price, free agent or not (and I don't think Steven Jackson's deal was a free agent deal) . I don't think Foster's agent is going to look at these contracts and then see which ones were given to free agents versus otherwise. He's going to see what the market price is, period, then formulate an asking price from this.

And as for it being speculation, of course it is, but hey, it's January and the Texans are home as usual. What else are we going to talk about?

Anyway, my whole point is I doubt the Texans will be willing to give Foster a huge payday. Sounds like most here agree with me as y'all keep telling me the Texans have all the leverage and they learned from Davis, Green and Slaton. However, I don't think Foster or his agent will see it this way and will want big bucks. While he may not be able to do much about it (accept holdout a la Vincent Jackson), I would prefer that one of our few special players not be disgruntled and angry at Texans management going into what is essentially only his second year in the league. Seems like most don't share my concern, but what can I say, I'm quickly becoming the most pessimistic guy on this board (take that, Chuck!).

[cadams]

i think those of you who are dismissing the possibility of a holdout are crazy. maybe it doesn't happen, but if he wants more than what the texans are going to offer (and if the difference it big) i think a holdout is definitely on the horizon. my only hope is that since kubiak and smith pretty much have to win this season (if you believe mcnair), then maybe they will make an offer to foster that he will be fine with. if he threatens to holdout, or actually does, i would bet there will be a number of teams trying to work a trade for him that will happily pay him a boatload.

[HPF Bob]

Of course, things may change with a new CBA, but in the NFL salaries don't matter as much as guaranteed money. The agents love to announce Player X just signed for $40 million and it sounds impressive until you realize that only $10 million is guaranteed and the other $30 million are incentives and staying on the roster for the length of the contract, etc. or comes with a buyout clause.

Baseball teams do the same thing except their contracts can't have voidable years because of what's in the CBA, which is why the Astros are stuck with Carlos Lee's $18.5 mil/yr albatross. Most NFL teams would get rid of a Carlos Lee simply by voiding the remaining years of his contract.

I wouldn't blame the NFL for keeping that part of the CBA intact and the NFLPA for trying to remove it but the difference is that the MLBPA is a much stronger union than the NFLPA (either that or baseball owners are more chickens--t).

Since running back is such a high-injury position, pay no attention to whatever money they offer Foster. Pay attention to the amount that's guaranteed.