Arian Foster a potential holdout?

NBT · #1 01-13-2011, 07:11 PM

I think McNair will treat Foster fairly, but not $10M/year fairly. Something in the $1.5 to $3M/year range would be pretty fair for both sides.

Keith · #2 01-13-2011, 10:15 PM

The Texans didn't open their pocketbooks for Slaton after his big season. Granted, Foster's was even better, but the Texans have the leverage regardless.

Joshua · #3 01-14-2011, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NBT

I think McNair will treat Foster fairly, but not $10M/year fairly. Something in the $1.5 to $3M/year range would be pretty fair for both sides.

No offense, but I don't think you've looked at what NFL players are making lately if you think $1.5 to $3 million is fair for the league's leading rusher. Last year, 31 year old Chester Taylor got 4 years, $12.5 million (a little over $3 million/year) to be Forte's backup in Chicago after rushing for a whopping 338 yards the year before. 32 year old Thomas Jones got 2 years/$5 million, and I seem to recall people complaining that the Texans didn't offer this for him because $5 million is basically nothing in the NFL. And this is the high end of what you think the Texans will or should offer?

barrett · #4 01-14-2011, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshua

No offense, but I don't think you've looked at what NFL players are making lately if you think $1.5 to $3 million is fair for the league's leading rusher. Last year, 31 year old Chester Taylor got 4 years, $12.5 million (a little over $3 million/year) to be Forte's backup in Chicago after rushing for a whopping 338 yards the year before. 32 year old Thomas Jones got 2 years/$5 million, and I seem to recall people complaining that the Texans didn't offer this for him because $5 million is basically nothing in the NFL. And this is the high end of what you think the Texans will or should offer?

That is what those guys got as free agents. Foster is not. NFL players know that Free Agency is their payday. Teams know that you have to overpay in free agency. Foster will want to make more money and everything else is speculation right now.

Joshua · #5 01-14-2011, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrett

That is what those guys got as free agents. Foster is not. NFL players know that Free Agency is their payday. Teams know that you have to overpay in free agency. Foster will want to make more money and everything else is speculation right now.

All your points are undoubtedly true. However, the reason I listed these deals is that they represent what has been paid lately to sign RBs to a long term deals and Foster's agent will almost certainly rely on them to come up with an asking price, free agent or not (and I don't think Steven Jackson's deal was a free agent deal) . I don't think Foster's agent is going to look at these contracts and then see which ones were given to free agents versus otherwise. He's going to see what the market price is, period, then formulate an asking price from this.

And as for it being speculation, of course it is, but hey, it's January and the Texans are home as usual. What else are we going to talk about?

Anyway, my whole point is I doubt the Texans will be willing to give Foster a huge payday. Sounds like most here agree with me as y'all keep telling me the Texans have all the leverage and they learned from Davis, Green and Slaton. However, I don't think Foster or his agent will see it this way and will want big bucks. While he may not be able to do much about it (accept holdout a la Vincent Jackson), I would prefer that one of our few special players not be disgruntled and angry at Texans management going into what is essentially only his second year in the league. Seems like most don't share my concern, but what can I say, I'm quickly becoming the most pessimistic guy on this board (take that, Chuck!).

cadams · #6 01-14-2011, 03:35 PM

i think those of you who are dismissing the possibility of a holdout are crazy. maybe it doesn't happen, but if he wants more than what the texans are going to offer (and if the difference it big) i think a holdout is definitely on the horizon. my only hope is that since kubiak and smith pretty much have to win this season (if you believe mcnair), then maybe they will make an offer to foster that he will be fine with. if he threatens to holdout, or actually does, i would bet there will be a number of teams trying to work a trade for him that will happily pay him a boatload.

NBT · #7 01-14-2011, 05:21 PM

Joshua, I take no offense as long as it is open minded debate. The fact that Foster is not in a position to bargain very much, I thought the 1.5-3M figure was doable. However, as someone said, the damned agents keep sticking their finger in the pie hoping to come up with a big splash. I also heard somewhere that since AF was not a "drafted player", that his free agency would automatically escalate to 3 years instead of 5. All he has to do in that situation is be patient for another year, and then hit the big jackpot. Assuming he keeps up his gaudy numbers.

Fonz the Boss · #8 01-15-2011, 01:23 AM

Would the Texans really think they would have leverage? Im not so sure about that. Derrick Ward would have to find the youth fountain to carry the load for a full season. Backup Ben Tate has not even played a single regular season down. And then there's Steve Slaton... umm, yea that's a whole lotta leverage huh.

HPF Bob · #9 01-14-2011, 10:20 AM

Of course, things may change with a new CBA, but in the NFL salaries don't matter as much as guaranteed money. The agents love to announce Player X just signed for $40 million and it sounds impressive until you realize that only $10 million is guaranteed and the other $30 million are incentives and staying on the roster for the length of the contract, etc. or comes with a buyout clause.

Baseball teams do the same thing except their contracts can't have voidable years because of what's in the CBA, which is why the Astros are stuck with Carlos Lee's $18.5 mil/yr albatross. Most NFL teams would get rid of a Carlos Lee simply by voiding the remaining years of his contract.

I wouldn't blame the NFL for keeping that part of the CBA intact and the NFLPA for trying to remove it but the difference is that the MLBPA is a much stronger union than the NFLPA (either that or baseball owners are more chickens--t).

Since running back is such a high-injury position, pay no attention to whatever money they offer Foster. Pay attention to the amount that's guaranteed.