McShay's Mock Draft

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by mussop

Not really! I just think you are looking at the positives and Im looking at the negatives. With the possible steriod allegations and only one year of real production, he just isnt worth the 15th pick IMO. His best year he had
GP TKL TFL SK PBU INT
2008 13 73 10.5 3.0 6 1

Thats just not good enough for me. I want an impact player at 15 or a trade down.

Yeah, my point is that if you only focus on the positive or the negative, you come out with two very different perspectives on the same matter.

It may be a moot point anyway, TexansChick at chron.com points out that last year staff suggested that CB is a deep position and noted how we went there in the middle rounds. It is just one example and I would like more to delineate a trend, but it is interesting.

http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/

Rick Smith suggested that Linebacker and Safety are deep positions, and so she suggests that we may go there after the first. If this were true then it would leave the D-line and maybe CB as the positions we will address in the first round.

If that is the case then you are looking at Orakpo, Brown, possibly Michael Johnson after he blows up the 40 in the combine, or Maybin on the DE side, Jerry on the DL side since Raji will likely be gone, and Vontae Davis, Alphonso Smith and D.J. Moore on the CB side.

Supposing that we keep Dunta, I don't think we go to the CB well. D-line then becomes the odds on favorite. Since Raji will likely be gone then Jerry becomes the go to. He is more of a one gap penetrator, and that we already have in Okoye. But considering that is the stated defensive theme of this coordinator. So maybe but I don't think so.

That leaves DE, and at that point any of Orakpo, Brown, Johnson, and Maybin could be available.

Out of those, Johnson is the most athletic with the best speed and alot of upside, Maybin has perhaps the most upside as a pass rusher, through Brown, is up there too.

Orakpo is perhaps the most complete 4-3 end, has a good first step, good production, and has improved in run stopping. Brown has all the physical tools but I always have questions about FSU d lineman, plus he is supposedly on the rise. On certain charts, Brown and Maybin will be gone by the time we draft.

That leaves Orakpo and Johnson. Orakpo is the only one with value at 15. So Orakpo or trade down. I vote trade down, and if they are still in love with a DE, Orakpo will likely be gone if they trade down more than a couple of picks.

A prime trade down target is Detroit, who could do a Clevand kinda of draft day move. Detroit might trade down thier first pick if they have a chance but they might not. You can kinda sense that out this they want a QB and a LT. LT would likely be the first pick as the top 4 likely won't make it out of the top 15.

So they take Andre Smith, Jason Smith, Michael Oher or Eugene Monroe with the first pick, they will probably still have a shot at one of teh top two QBs if they trade up from 20. There are three QB hungry teams at 17, 18, and 19 with the Jets, Bucs, and Bears. So they will have to trade up with us or the Chargers and the Chargers may not make a move if Orakpo or one of the other top OLB/DE's is on the board, so that leaves us, and we have some leverage there.

Which equates to about a 3rd. So provided that happens we are then in possession of the # 20 pick and an additional third at the top of the round.

That could be neat, you could go Cushing, Kruger, Rashad Johnson, etc.

Sorry thats a long post, got a little carried away.

[HPF Bob]

The Lions have extra picks from Dallas in the Roy Williams trade. I don't know if that makes a trade more likely or less likely but if the Texans trade down to #33, they could add another 2nd or 3rd which could bring them another high pick or perhaps stockpile a pick for next year.

[nunusguy]

Guy from a Draft web-site said on 1560 radio here in Houston last night that he's got Everette Brown going #3 overall and Orakpo is falling because teams have reservations about his first step ? Not that quick.
Also said that he didn't think there was a QB (out of the senior class) going in the first 3 rounds ? Said the strongest position without question was offensive tackle with maybe 4 guys going in the top 10. But the guy said this is really a very weak Draft. OK, we knew all of that already.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by jppaul

I disagree, from what I have seen he plays angry and I like that and I think we need that. Certainly, he doesn't remind of Bobby Carpenter.

That's fine. I haven't watched him enough to really have an opinion. I might even be remembering the the carpenter comment wrong...it could have been someone else. I became intrigued with him from the senior bowl, but like any potential draft pick, if you look hard enough you will find something to not like. Game film should be the biggest factor, and I don't have any.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by jppaul

D-line then becomes the odds on favorite.

That leaves DE, and at that point any of Orakpo, Brown, Johnson, and Maybin could be available.

Out of those, Johnson is the most athletic with the best speed and alot of upside, Maybin has perhaps the most upside as a pass rusher, through Brown, is up there too.

Orakpo is perhaps the most complete 4-3 end, has a good first step, good production, and has improved in run stopping. Brown has all the physical tools but I always have questions about FSU d lineman, plus he is supposedly on the rise. On certain charts, Brown and Maybin will be gone by the time we draft.

That leaves Orakpo and Johnson. Orakpo is the only one with value at 15. So Orakpo or trade down. I vote trade down, and if they are still in love with a DE, Orakpo will likely be gone if they trade down more than a couple of picks.

I think the current favorite is Maybin. Michael Johnson is a joke. E. Brown is too good to last. Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end. I'm banking that Maybin's size (242lbs) makes him attractive to Coach Kollar.

[BigBull]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I think the current favorite is Maybin. Michael Johnson is a joke. E. Brown is too good to last. Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end. I'm banking that Maybin's size (242lbs) makes him attractive to Coach Kollar.

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Lions have extra picks from Dallas in the Roy Williams trade. I don't know if that makes a trade more likely or less likely but if the Texans trade down to #33, they could add another 2nd or 3rd which could bring them another high pick or perhaps stockpile a pick for next year.

This is my hope. Like I have said many times, there isnt much difference in the talent in this draft from around 15 to 65. That will make it hard to trade down. If we get an offer like this I sure hope we do it. I want as many picks in the top 4 rounds as possible.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I think the current favorite is Maybin. Michael Johnson is a joke. E. Brown is too good to last. Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end. I'm banking that Maybin's size (242lbs) makes him attractive to Coach Kollar.

I would think that his size would scare Kollar. From what I have heard (Rob Rang) the biggest worry about him is that he wont be able to add much weight.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by mussop

This is my hope. Like I have said many times, there isnt much difference in the talent in this draft from around 15 to 65. That will make it hard to trade down. If we get an offer like this I sure hope we do it. I want as many picks in the top 4 rounds as possible.

Yeah, as some may believe that to be (the 15 to 65 propisition), not saying whether I agree or disagree, there are two clearcut top QBs and if one is gone by the first 15, then the other will likely be gone after the QB hungry gauntlet of Bucs, Bears, and Bears. Scarcity often moves a position into the premium, like we did last year with a OT being selected every 4 picks.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by papabear

That's fine. I haven't watched him enough to really have an opinion. I might even be remembering the the carpenter comment wrong...it could have been someone else. I became intrigued with him from the senior bowl, but like any potential draft pick, if you look hard enough you will find something to not like. Game film should be the biggest factor, and I don't have any.

No big deal PB, no snarkiness intended. There is some game film out there on you tube though. Check out my earlier post I linked some highlights.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

An interesting opinion, but one that might hold water. I have been touting MJ for the past year, IMO, he does a Freeney after the 40 at the combine. I think he is money provided he can focus.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Personally, I'd rather have Paul Kruger than Orakpo if I'm just looking for a "complete" 4-3 end.

At 6'5" & 'bout 265, Kruger along with Robert Ayers looks to be one of the few DE prospects who is a 3-down player at DE in the NFL. But that only assumes he's really quick enough, athletic enough to be a bona fide edge-rusher and not just another version of a current Texan, the one-dimentional Anthony Weaver. And though LSU Tyson Jackson at 290 obviously has excellent size, he also appears to be primarily a run-stopper.
I'd rather use a pick, even one as high as a late first-rounder, on a situational player than on just another DE who can't significantly upgrade our pass rush.
BTW, here's an article about Krueger I ran across. Sounds like he had a near-fatal run-in with a Mex gang in Utah awhile back:
***
"Nine months later, in a Marriott hotel room in Salt Lake City, Kruger was emotionless as he talked about that January night. The Utah defensive end was almost numb to the story, having rehashed it countless times for the people who asked to see the scars that zigzag across his torso.

The 15 to 20 Latino gang members who jumped Kruger as he was leaving a party also drove a screwdriver through the back of his teammate, Greg Newman, and used brass knuckles to break the nose and shatter the cheekbone of his younger brother, Dave.

It was Kruger, though, who awoke the following morning in a Utah hospital with life-threatening injuries.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...yhoo&type=lgns

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by jppaul

An interesting opinion, but one that might hold water. I have been touting MJ for the past year, IMO, he does a Freeney after the 40 at the combine. I think he is money provided he can focus.

I certainly got no problem with the guy we took in the 2003 Draft, Andre Johnson. But if anybody remembers the Texans in that Draft, one of the other players they were seriously considering besides AJ with their #3 overall was pass-rusher supreme AZ DE Terrel Suggs. Anyway, one of the primary reasons the Texans ceased considering Suggs was his 40 time.
I remember everybody including McNair himself going out to AZ to time Suggs who ran and then reran the 40 on another day but still couldn't crack 4.7. Ever since then I've learned not to place too much emphasis on 40 times for pass-rushing prospects, as Suggs has become one of the better edge-rushers in the NFL since being drafted.
While its a more important consideration for some positions like corners, receivers, and backs, the absense of a fast 40 time isn't a showstopper for a passrusher IMO.

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

While its a more important consideration for some positions like corners, receivers, and backs, the absense of a fast 40 time isn't a showstopper for a passrusher IMO.

Sure, but the presence of a good one will skyrocket a prospect. Remember Freeney?

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by mussop

I would think that his size would scare Kollar. From what I have heard (Rob Rang) the biggest worry about him is that he wont be able to add much weight.

Aaron Schobel played for Kollar in Buffalo at 6'4" 243lbs. He has been able to generate double digit sacks with a small DE before, so I wouldn't think he'd be too afraid of bringing Maybin on board.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Most of your post I agree with, but Michael Johnson is the best DE in this draft imo.

No way is he the best DE in the draft. I'll grant you that his height and speed makes him intriguing, but he doesn't play with any fire whatsoever. He's ineffective against the run, almost seeming like he's not interested. He gets blocked by TEs, which is pretty pathetic considering most college TEs aren't talented in blocking.

He may go to Indy and blow people away with times, but this guy is all potential and very little production. While that was a signature line complaining about Mario, it is more appropriate here. Mario got double teamed a lot his Senior year, where I saw MJ getting single blocked in his games.

Currently, Johnson is like Roger Moore as more and more people are jumping off his bandwagon. NFL Draft Scout has him as a 2nd round pick at this point being passed by Robert Ayers. Again, I haven't talked to him to determine his motivation and passion for the game, but from what I've seen in games, it just isn't there.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Aaron Schobel played for Kollar in Buffalo at 6'4" 243lbs. He has been able to generate double digit sacks with a small DE before, so I wouldn't think he'd be too afraid of bringing Maybin on board.

That's like saying Sean Payton prefers short QBs because he did well with Drew Brees. The two are unconnected. I am sure Kollar liked Schobel for a number of reasons, none of which were he was small. If Maybin (or any DE) gets the recommendation from Kollar, it won't be because they were small.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by barrett

That's like saying Sean Payton prefers short QBs because he did well with Drew Brees. The two are unconnected. I am sure Kollar liked Schobel for a number of reasons, none of which were he was small. If Maybin (or any DE) gets the recommendation from Kollar, it won't be because they were small.

Bad analogy. He's looking for high motor, quickness, and intensity... That's according to Kollar himself. And, his history shows a willingness to use undersized guys and very few examples of bigger DLmen. Nobody was arguing that they like him because he's small. However, he may like his athleticism and his size won't concern him.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Bad analogy. He's looking for high motor, quickness, and intensity... That's according to Kollar himself. And, his history shows a willingness to use undersized guys and very few examples of bigger DLmen. Nobody was arguing that they like him because he's small. However, he may like his athleticism and his size won't concern him.

You just just described Everette Brown.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by barrett

That's like saying Sean Payton prefers short QBs because he did well with Drew Brees. The two are unconnected. I am sure Kollar liked Schobel for a number of reasons, none of which were he was small. If Maybin (or any DE) gets the recommendation from Kollar, it won't be because they were small.

You are comparing apples to oranges and putting them in my mouth. How's that for mixed metaphors?

Anyway, let me try to be clearer in my message. It's obvious you aren't following what I am trying to say.

It is my belief, on Feb 7, 2009, that Everette Brown will be off the board when we pick at #15. I also think that getting a pass-rushing DE to play opposite of Mario is a priority for this team and could be addressed with our first round pick.

Of the players who will be available when we pick, I think Aaron Maybin would offer the best pass rushing ability. He's also an underclassman, so like Okoye, there seems to be room for even more improvement. So, while other teams may take a pass on Maybin and allow him to slip because of his size, Kollar may not be as hesitant. Because he has had success with undersized DEs in the past, he may be more willing to bring Maybin on board than other teams picking ahead of us. In fact, like last year, the Texans may be able to trade down and still be able to get the guy that they want.

If you want to see how I feel, please refer to the "My Guys" thread, where I currently have E. Brown as the #2 player on my board. For the purpose of this thread, I was saying the Texans may be most likely targeting Maybin. That is based upon what I see as need, history, and the decision makers.

It was not my intention to say that Kollar wants a 240lbs DE any more than the Steelers wanted a 5' 11" 192lbs WR. When the Steelers drafted Santonio Holmes, Big Ben wanted a "big" target on his team. They passed on Chad Jackson and drafted Holmes because they felt he was a better player. Jackson is 6'1" 215lbs but the Steelers' front office had a good experience with Hines Ward who is barely 6' 0" so they did not get too concerned about the height requirement. Therefore, I project that the Texans will be more likely to draft Maybin than Michael Johnson (who I think will also be available) when we pick.