Texans to select Clowney....

[HPF Bob]

...in Mel Kiper's latest mock.

That was the blurb that just hit my phone. Grr. Three more weeks of this until anything becomes official. The Bills (soon to be under new ownership) went so far as to close up shop and send everyone home for a week because they felt folks were to the point where they were overthinking and making stupid suggestions because they had analyzed their situation to the point of it getting stale and ridiculous.

The Texans really have three options and each has some risk to it. They've been here before. 2002: David Carr or Julius Peppers? 2006: Vince Young, Reggie Bush or Mario Williams?

2014? It looks like the choices are Jadeveon Clowney, Blake Bortles or trade down. That last option may not be realistic but if, say, the Falcons (at #6) offered their first three choices this year or their first two and their first-rounder from 2015, it would be tempting. The value in this draft is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Doubling your selections there could pay off handsomely. While the Texans have 11 picks, only three are on the first two days. They will not be able to trade their compensation picks (4-35, 6-35 and 7-41) but they could package some of their other last-day picks to move back up into the third round (using 4-1 and 6-5, for example).

Clowney is the unquestioned "best player in the draft". But he's been dogged by charges of immaturity and laziness. I tend to compare him to Jevon Kearse who was a holy terror with the Titans the first few years before injuries and complacency took their toll.

I suspect what happened to Clowney last year is that he saw what happened to South Carolina teammate Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecock tailback was the next Adrian Peterson before suffering two gruesome knee injuries. He became a low-round pick and missed out on the big money. He may never admit it, but I think Clowney vowed "That's not going to happen to me." So, he dogged it to make sure he'd be healthy for his chance at NFL stardom. Question his motor all you want but, from a pure business standpoint, who could blame him for deciding there was more to life than SEC titles? Even if the Texans pass on him, he'll make some serious coin this summer.

The third option is to draft a QB, most likely Bortles from the impressions coming from Reliant. Bortles has the height, zip and athleticism that Bill O'Brien says he wants at the position. But I watched his game in the Fiesta Bowl and saw him make bad reads and poor decisions. You could see the talent was there but will he have the instincts and the brains for the next level or become David Carr 2.0? UCF did win big but Bortles wasn't the reason.

A&M's Johnny Manziel also is available and he keeps getting celebrity endorsements and pressure from the Aggie faithful. Bob McNair (a South Carolina alum) has had no trouble selling out Reliant Stadium. If game attendance mattered, Johnny Football would be a no-brainer. But it doesn't so he's not going to be the first overall. Houston might take him in a trade down or in the second round but not as first overall.

The Texans badly lacked a pass rush last year so Clowney fills a need. They obviously lacked good quarterback play so Bortles or Manziel fills a need. They also lacked solid play from the right side of the line which made the QB situation even worse.

The top of the draft board has three pass rushers (Clowney, Anthony Barr and Khalil Mack) three quarterbacks ( Bortles, Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater with Derek Carr and Tony Garropolo climbing as draft options) and two top offensive tackles (Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson). The Texans could, in theory, fall to eighth and get one of them while stockpiling later selections.

If Rick Smith were a master drafter, I'd be solidly in the trade down camp. But Smith's ledger is filled with as many misses (Kareem Jackson, Whitney Mercilus) as hits (Watt, Brian Cushing) and trading down for a jackpot of picks only works if you are both lucky and good.

But Clowney and Bortles seem like the two the Texans would take if they can't make a trade down that they like. Of them, I'd rather have Clowney to team with J.J. Watt and give Romeo Crennel several options.

So, for me, it's Clowney and I'm glad Mel Kiper Jr. agrees with me. That is, until he changes his mind next week.