Draft needs coming into focus

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by jppaul

2) S:

With Eugene Wilson resigned, Ferguson still on the roster, and the coaching staff seemingly liking Barber at the SS position, this need seems substantially diminshed.


3) CB:

This position seems pretty well set.

OLB: This is the position where I think that they go in the first.

Interesting Prisco article.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/11543464

LB: Middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans is one of the best in the league -- he is a tackling machine. The players next to him are young and have ability in Zach Diles and Xavier Adibi. They could use help there. There is some depth with Kevin Bentley and Chaun Thompson.

Secondary: They franchised Dunta Robinson, which means he's back as the starter at one corner. The other is a spot that needs an upgrade. Fred Bennett and Jacques Reeves will compete, but expect to see a high pick on a corner. Safeties Eugene Wilson and Nick Ferguson are just OK. They need help there.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Interesting Prisco article.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/11543464

LB: Middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans is one of the best in the league -- he is a tackling machine. The players next to him are young and have ability in Zach Diles and Xavier Adibi. They could use help there. There is some depth with Kevin Bentley and Chaun Thompson.

Secondary: They franchised Dunta Robinson, which means he's back as the starter at one corner. The other is a spot that needs an upgrade. Fred Bennett and Jacques Reeves will compete, but expect to see a high pick on a corner. Safeties Eugene Wilson and Nick Ferguson are just OK. They need help there.

For me, one of the problems with drafting Lbs high this season is that, barring injury, a team rarely uses more than 4 over the course of entire game-sometimes only the three starters (depending on whether there is a nickel replacement). Meanwhile, though a base defense has only 2 CBs, almost every game you will see 4 CBs get extensive playing time... Similarly, though we start 4 DL, it's likely that 7 or 8 make an impact in a game.

So, while Adibi and Diles have some questions, I think their promise is enough that a high round pick on a LB may only marginally improve the team. Meanwhile, a high pick at DE, DT, CB, S all can significantly improve the team, even if the starters stay healthy and the rookies are unable to unseat them... If we draft Cushing in round one, it's possible that he doesnt beat out Diles or Adibi and therefore will only see the field because of injury or because he's been pressed on the field due to his draft position and salary cap number.

[Blitzwood]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

For me, one of the problems with drafting Lbs high this season is that, barring injury, a team rarely uses more than 4 over the course of entire game-sometimes only the three starters (depending on whether there is a nickel replacement). Meanwhile, though a base defense has only 2 CBs, almost every game you will see 4 CBs get extensive playing time... Similarly, though we start 4 DL, it's likely that 7 or 8 make an impact in a game.

So, while Adibi and Diles have some questions, I think their promise is enough that a high round pick on a LB may only marginally improve the team. Meanwhile, a high pick at DE, DT, CB, S all can significantly improve the team, even if the starters stay healthy and the rookies are unable to unseat them... If we draft Cushing in round one, it's possible that he doesnt beat out Diles or Adibi and therefore will only see the field because of injury or because he's been pressed on the field due to his draft position and salary cap number.

Good point.

I don't know about ya'll, but something just doesn't make any sense if you really think about it. If I was Kubiak, would I give an interview before the draft to say what my true intentions were in the upcoming draft??? I don't think so. Unless I want to put some pressure on the teams picking before me, or I don't value my head coaching job.


I'm hoping it's the former. There are several teams like Buff, N.O.,Green Bay, Denver, and Washington who all need LB's and all draft before us. So Kubiak gets McClain to say we're gonna target Matthews, and even pushing the "3rd best offense" load as well. (Maybe so on YPG, but it's meaningless if we're still not in the playoffs and we still have trouble scoring in goalline situations.) Kubiak then gives an interview to say we're looking at OLB's. He couldn't just come out and say were looking at Matthews because noone would believe him. He also says they'd be "hard pressed" to take an offensive player. It just seemed too desperate to be real, why would you tell the whole world you intentions.

If Kubiak was really targeting Matthews, don't you think he would have put a muzzle on JM weeks ago. And what struck me as odd was McClain saying in his chat that he would never say who we were targeting because there are teams reading his blog, blah, blah, blah...
I remember watching him on NFLHD, and thinking to myself, you sure sound very confident saying that, almost too sure, as if you were instructed or otherwise advised.

I take that as we are probably looking at RB's early if thats his best value at 15, or trade down and see whats available. I know Beanie has to be very tempting for the Texans, and is undervalued right now, so Kubiak is for all accounts tring to keep it that way by focusing all the attention on the LB's. He's got the nastiest stiff arm I've seen, is strong as an ox, and only missed 3 games his entire carreer at OSU, although you wouldn't know it from all the rumors and false info out there.

If we trade down, I have to believe it's to take Darius Butler out of Conn.

Just my 2 cents.

[jppaul]

Ok lets wiegh the evidence on the other side.

1) Denver is not a team that often drafts running backs early. We are Denver South. We have thier former offensive coordinator, the architect of their zone blocking scheme, a GM who learned his craft in thier front office. We haven't drafted running backs early in the three years since Kubiak has been here. Undoubtedly, you will cite Duane Brown as supporting evidence that we buck the Denver trends here, but I will point to George Foster to disprove that.

2) Smith's past luck with RBs has been sketchy at best (green, brown come to mind), and a first round pick is like dropping 500 on the roulette table when your on a losing streak. Many more picks like Ahman Green and he is in trouble. It just doesn't make much sense. Wells has injury concerns, thats the big knock on him. I am sure Smith doesn't want to get burned again on another injury ridden pick. Smith on the other hand is batting a 100% on 2nd day RBs.

3) We have a top ten RB, and a crappy defense. Our offense is ranked number three, but a defense ranked in the 20s. So by all means lets keep piling on high value draft picks into our best (least need) area and neglect our worst (highest need) area. Makes sense.

4) We have an obvious need at OLB. Diles is a better will than a sam. Adibi has a lot of potential but is injury prone. Thus, we have a need. Even better if that OLB can put his hand on the ground on third downs and rush the passer (as Smith and Kubiak have already evidenced an interest in) it is a two for one deal.

5) The value is there. There will be two OLBs likely to go in the 10-20 range. Knowshon Moreno is the only RB pick with value there and he's not exactly the 230 pound sledge hammer that Kubiak seems to be talking about.

6) Sometimes teams say who they are going to pick. It just happens.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

For me, one of the problems with drafting Lbs high this season is that, barring injury, a team rarely uses more than 4 over the course of entire game-sometimes only the three starters (depending on whether there is a nickel replacement). Meanwhile, though a base defense has only 2 CBs, almost every game you will see 4 CBs get extensive playing time... Similarly, though we start 4 DL, it's likely that 7 or 8 make an impact in a game.

So, while Adibi and Diles have some questions, I think their promise is enough that a high round pick on a LB may only marginally improve the team. Meanwhile, a high pick at DE, DT, CB, S all can significantly improve the team, even if the starters stay healthy and the rookies are unable to unseat them... If we draft Cushing in round one, it's possible that he doesnt beat out Diles or Adibi and therefore will only see the field because of injury or because he's been pressed on the field due to his draft position and salary cap number.

That is a good point. It's one reason I can't get excited about drafting SLB in the first round...unless he's going to be your rush end in nickel situations. As much as we like to bitch about the secondary we we're terrible against the run last year as well. I think a real NT, as opposed to the UTs we force into that spot, would do more to upgrade the run defense. The problem is it sure seems like Kubiak wants this defense to be made up of versatile interchangeable parts type guys. It doesn't matter anyway because it doesn't seem like there are any run stuffing NTs like that in this draft who will be there at 15. Even the best rookie NT's is going to have a hard time handling that role. As long as we re still allowing 4.5 yards per carry to the opposition upgrading the secondary won't help much because they are always going to be in third and short type situations. If we can upgrade our run defense by drafting a OLB at 15 that should have a cascade effect on the rest of the defense. If we can put teams in more 3rd and long situations that should allow the defensive line to be more aggressive in those situations, which should help the secondary as well.

I really like Adibi, but he had trouble keeping his weight up last year and staying healhy. Hopefully a year of NFL off season training will help take care of that, but if we can upgrade that spot fine. Even though I really like Adibi's potential. Diles is the kind of guy I like to root for because it was a big win for him just to stick on a roster, much less work his way up to starting lineup. There were times early in the season that I thought he was playing the best of all the LB's. It's a feel good story, but that shouldn't stop us from upgrading his spot...especially since that was a pretty nasty injury he had last year and there's no way to know how well he'll come back from it.

[Bigtinylittle]

I think the Defense is going to be very interesting to watch next year because right now I believe Bush when he says we are going to play "Upfield".
I am expecting out DTs to be gap shooters, which is what they were drafted to be. If they can collapse the pocket somewhat, the difference could be dramatic.

If Bush really means what he says, then we can definately expect strong pressure from the WLB. Drafting OLB is something that would probably produce immediate results. And I think most of the other NFL teams see that as our logical pick. So I don't really think Kubiak is saying anything they don't already know.

But nothing is set in stone. If he sees someone he truly covets falling to us, I think he would go for him. Or he might go for Jenkins. And I believe the other teams also probably think he might do it too. So he really isn't hurting himself by talking about it. At least that's the way I see it.

[Roy P]

After signing Antonio Smith, Shaun Cody, and Cato June, I wanted to re-visit our needs going into the draft. Kubiak said he is looking for impact and help on the back end. Other than Clay Matthews, you may notice that I don't have many prospects with 1st round grades. On second thought, there are some mock drafts that have Alex Mack and Max Unger in the bottom of the 1st round. On third thought, I'll add Maybin, Barwin, and Sintim into the pass-rusher need.

FS - I would say that somebody who can give help over the top would allow the defense to become more aggreesive up front. We need to have an eraser. We often talk about a ball hawk to come up with more interceptions, but at the very least we need a guy who is in the picture trying to break up a pass when the CBs get beat. Prospects: Rashad Johnson, David Bruton, Chris Clemons, and C.J. Spillman

SS - Having a guy who intimidates pass-catchers coming over the middle would pay dividends. Perhaps it would be the key to stopping QBs from picking us apart. I would also enjoy seeing somebody other than Dunta Robinson get hits on the QB when we blitz the Secondary. Prospects: William Moore, Chip Vaughn, and Patrick Chung.

CB - Robinson is still pouting about the Franchise tag. Maybe he needs some incentive to come to training camp. While Reeves progressed and I like the potential of of Bennett and Molden, we can always use a lock-down CB. Prospects: Keenan Lewis, Asher Allen, and Don Carey

DT - This is where we are getting a lot of bodies, especially if you consider Mario and Antonio Smith into this catagory since they can slide inside in passing situations. TJ, Okoye, and Cody all have demonstrated potential. I'd like to see more of that turned into production. Okam is an enigma to me, I wish he'd been allowed to show something on the field last year so I'd have a better idea of what he brings. Robinson was a serviceable back-up. Prospect: Roy Miller or Terrence Knighton

OLB - We brought in Cato June, perhaps as a nickle LB and there is hope for Xavier Adibi. Diles is a liability covering the TE, doesn't pass rush, and lacks instincts for making tackles behind the line of scrimmage. I don't know if the team will draft 2 LBs in this class, but it sure would be nice if we got a guy who was versatile enough to play either position. Prospects: Clay Matthews, Ellerbe, or McGrath.

RB - I believe Slaton is our starter. However, I would like his back-up to not only be a guy who can convert short yardage, but if Slaton was injured, could carry the load as the starter. Prospects: Andre Brown, Shonn Greene, Rashad Jennings, and Javarris Williams.

DE - We never hear the establishment address this as an issue. Mario Williams is a beast who makes Offensive Coordinators plan their protections. That would allow a player like Justin Tuck to have a field day on the other side. When Antonio Smith slides inside, just who in the hell is going to play DE opposite of Mario? The next question is how high do we draft a player like Brian Robison or Cliff Avril who can get 5 sacks as a rookie? Keep in mind that Gaines Adams only had 6 sacks as a rookie. Bulman had 4 last year and Nading had 0. Prospects: Aaron Maybin, Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim, Lawrence Sidbury, Paul Kruger, Cody Brown, Kyle Moore, and Victor Butler

OC - In order to save a roster spot, I'm looking for an OC who can possibly play RG in a pinch. Everyone knows that Mack and Unger are top picks at the position, but I don't know if it is value effective to draft an OL in round two. I'm a big fan of Eric Wood, but I'm starting to have my doubts about using #45 on him. The problem is if I wait on Antoine Caldwell or AQ Shipley, I'm either losing out on athleticism or versatility to play RG. In the past, OCs have slipped on draft day, and perhaps Wood will be available in the 3rd round. However, that may just be wishful thinking.

[Roy P]

So, after all of that, this would be my Needs Draft Board...

1 LB Clay Matthews
2 DE Connor Barwin
3 DE Aaron Maybin

4 OC Alex Mack
5 OC Eric Wood
6 OC Max Unger
7 RB Andre Brown
8 FS William Moore
9 DE Lawrence Sidbury

10 RB Shonn Greene
11 DE Paul Kruger
12 SS Chip Vaughn
13 SS Patrick Chung
14 RB Rashad Jennings
15 DE Clint Sintim
16 CB Asher Allen
17 LB Dannell Ellerbe
18 CB Keenan Lewis
19 FS Rashad Johnson
20 LB Gerald McGrath
21 DE Cody Brown

22 FS David Bruton
23 OC Antoine Caldwell
24 DE Kyle Moore

25 FS Chris Clemons
26 OC A.Q. Shipley
27 FS C.J. Spillman
28 RB Javarris Williams

29 DT Roy Miller

30 CB Don Carey
31 DE Victor Butler
32 DT Terrence Knighton