1st Round DL

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by James

What's your pick at 15 then jppaul? A speedster like Maclin or Harvin for the offense? A tackle? Or the secondary?

I unfortunately have no great alternative. I like Cushing at SLB, Malulaga, althlough that presents some problems, Beanie Wells for a 1-2 punch, though we seem able to find talent later in the draft. I like Alphonso Smith, but its a bit early for him. I would likely go Cushing. I am disappointed that so many juniors elected to stay.

If he had come out Mays, had he fallen would have been my pick. I unfortunately think that we are going to be in a position where DL is going to be the best value. I think either Orakpo or Maybin will likely be on the board, and if I was forced to choose I would say Maybin, though I am a fan of Orakpos too.

At this point I am crossing my fingers for a trade down and a willing partner. Naturally, if we lose D-rob my priorities would shift and I would have to look at Vontae Davis or Alphonso Smith at 15.

[James]

When opportunity presented itself to our secondary (J. Reeves vs Vikings) they made plays . . .I think the front 7 is more crucial to a defense than a secondary, I think the front 7 makes the secondary. Would Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu be as dominant without the pressure up front? The short answer is no. Why wouldn't we push to make our DLine the best on the planet, we already have a couple of pieces (granted Amobe is a work in progress) that can lead our secondary to become average, at the very least, and exceptional if we play our cards right. This is why I advocate a DLine selection, hopefully, Raji, if not, then a speed rusher like Maybin, Brown, or Orakpo . . .if available.

[kRocket]

I have been watching the workouts this week and it looks like Mayock believes Robert Ayers has risen into the first round. He knew before hand that he was good against the run, but he has shown a lot running the arc and the inside rush also. He had at least one sack in the Game IIRC doing that very thing. We need a DE and he appears to be one we could use.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by jppaul

I unfortunately have no great alternative. I like Cushing at SLB, Malulaga, althlough that presents some problems, Beanie Wells for a 1-2 punch, though we seem able to find talent later in the draft. I like Alphonso Smith, but its a bit early for him. I would likely go Cushing. I am disappointed that so many juniors elected to stay.

If he had come out Mays, had he fallen would have been my pick. I unfortunately think that we are going to be in a position where DL is going to be the best value. I think either Orakpo or Maybin will likely be on the board, and if I was forced to choose I would say Maybin, though I am a fan of Orakpos too.

At this point I am crossing my fingers for a trade down and a willing partner. Naturally, if we lose D-rob my priorities would shift and I would have to look at Vontae Davis or Alphonso Smith at 15.

I agree with everything you are typing here and I think it is why DL is in play. There simply are not many other good options/values.

There is no position on offense I would go with in round 1. RB is our only need there, but you don't draft a backup RB in round 1 even if he is going to share time. I think a bigger back can be had round 3 or later.

FS would be a great pick but with Mays gone I don't know if any warrants the #15 pick.

SLB is the most useless and low impact position on a defense. They are 2 down players who make very few plays.

A WLB or a MLB that would move Demeco is slightly more valuable than a sam, but it is a huge price both financially and asset-wise to pay for a 4-3 OLB. The OLB is just not a huge position in the 4-3.

If Dunta is gone than I think it almost automatically becomes a CB unless there is a run of them off the board before us.

DT does not make that much sense to me since we have 3 decent young guys in Okoye, TJ, and Robinson. I understand some picking up a bigger type to clog the middle and would be ok with it, but don't think it is a huge key. Honestly our LBs stayed pretty clean this year. The bigger problem of the DTs was penetration and we are supposed to have that guy already in Okoye. Replacing him won't happen yet because he was a pick of this staff.

That leaves DE. Mario is the only DE we have drafted and he worked out great. But like Roy P, I would rather see a 2 down player from either Buhlman or a low draft pick, and then couple them with a pass rush specialist who is middle round because of his size. I don't think it has to be a 1st round pick.

So who do I want? Honestly I would love to trade down, because I simply don't see the value and need meeting up for us at #15. If we could drop out of the first round altogether or drop down twice even better. If we end up with a pair of 2s and pair of 3s we can get all of the things we are looking for (big RB, FS, DE, Josh Freeman to develop as a QB to replace Sage).

If we get stuck at #15, then BPA out of the FS, DT, DE (or CB if Dunta is gone).

[jppaul]

Originally Posted by barrett

I agree with everything you are typing here and I think it is why DL is in play. There simply are not many other good options/values.

There is no position on offense I would go with in round 1. RB is our only need there, but you don't draft a backup RB in round 1 even if he is going to share time. I think a bigger back can be had round 3 or later.

FS would be a great pick but with Mays gone I don't know if any warrants the #15 pick.

SLB is the most useless and low impact position on a defense. They are 2 down players who make very few plays.

A WLB or a MLB that would move Demeco is slightly more valuable than a sam, but it is a huge price both financially and asset-wise to pay for a 4-3 OLB. The OLB is just not a huge position in the 4-3.

If Dunta is gone than I think it almost automatically becomes a CB unless there is a run of them off the board before us.

DT does not make that much sense to me since we have 3 decent young guys in Okoye, TJ, and Robinson. I understand some picking up a bigger type to clog the middle and would be ok with it, but don't think it is a huge key. Honestly our LBs stayed pretty clean this year. The bigger problem of the DTs was penetration and we are supposed to have that guy already in Okoye. Replacing him won't happen yet because he was a pick of this staff.

That leaves DE. Mario is the only DE we have drafted and he worked out great. But like Roy P, I would rather see a 2 down player from either Buhlman or a low draft pick, and then couple them with a pass rush specialist who is middle round because of his size. I don't think it has to be a 1st round pick.

So who do I want? Honestly I would love to trade down, because I simply don't see the value and need meeting up for us at #15. If we could drop out of the first round altogether or drop down twice even better. If we end up with a pair of 2s and pair of 3s we can get all of the things we are looking for (big RB, FS, DE, Josh Freeman to develop as a QB to replace Sage).

If we get stuck at #15, then BPA out of the FS, DT, DE (or CB if Dunta is gone).

Despite my misgivings, I think your right, that is probably how its gonna shakeout.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by barrett

I agree with everything you are typing here and I think it is why DL is in play. There simply are not many other good options/values.

There is no position on offense I would go with in round 1. RB is our only need there, but you don't draft a backup RB in round 1 even if he is going to share time. I think a bigger back can be had round 3 or later.

FS would be a great pick but with Mays gone I don't know if any warrants the #15 pick.

SLB is the most useless and low impact position on a defense. They are 2 down players who make very few plays.

A WLB or a MLB that would move Demeco is slightly more valuable than a sam, but it is a huge price both financially and asset-wise to pay for a 4-3 OLB. The OLB is just not a huge position in the 4-3.

If Dunta is gone than I think it almost automatically becomes a CB unless there is a run of them off the board before us.

DT does not make that much sense to me since we have 3 decent young guys in Okoye, TJ, and Robinson. I understand some picking up a bigger type to clog the middle and would be ok with it, but don't think it is a huge key. Honestly our LBs stayed pretty clean this year. The bigger problem of the DTs was penetration and we are supposed to have that guy already in Okoye. Replacing him won't happen yet because he was a pick of this staff.

That leaves DE. Mario is the only DE we have drafted and he worked out great. But like Roy P, I would rather see a 2 down player from either Buhlman or a low draft pick, and then couple them with a pass rush specialist who is middle round because of his size. I don't think it has to be a 1st round pick.

So who do I want? Honestly I would love to trade down, because I simply don't see the value and need meeting up for us at #15. If we could drop out of the first round altogether or drop down twice even better. If we end up with a pair of 2s and pair of 3s we can get all of the things we are looking for (big RB, FS, DE, Josh Freeman to develop as a QB to replace Sage).

If we get stuck at #15, then BPA out of the FS, DT, DE (or CB if Dunta is gone).

In order to figure out who the Texans WILL draft, instead of who we as fans would select, I think it is important to try to get inside Smith's and Kubiak's heads. That's a pretty hard thing to do because of how close to the vest they play their cards. That said, here's what I think: I think Kubiak is relatively pleased with last year's safety play.

I know a lot of fans in Houston want a true-old-style-roaming-speed- burning free safety, but that's not the style of safety Kubes covets. I'm not saying he wouldn't play one if he fell into our hands, but I just can't see Kubuak giving up a top draft choice to get one of those guys. On the other hand, if a tremendous SS fell to us in the second round, one who was an exceptional tackler and also good in coverage, I guess the Texans might take him. But I don't see anyone like that on the horizon. So I personally see us going with our two older veterans backed up by Harrison and Barber. Demps may get cut, but if he doesn't, that would create such a log jam at safety that I just don't see us going for a safety even in a lower round.

I'm thinking the most likely for our first pick is a run stuffing tackle as a rotation guy, or a DE who would allow us to cut Weaver and his huge salary. I could also see up going for a LB if the coaches fall in love with one. I could even see us going for Moreno if the coaches are in love with him. If we go with a DE in the first, I could see us going for another one in a lower round. The roster right now isn't exactly full of talented DEs.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

In order to figure out who the Texans WILL draft, instead of who we as fans would select, I think it is important to try to get inside Smith's and Kubiak's heads. That's a pretty hard thing to do because of how close to the vest they play their cards. That said, here's what I think: I think Kubiak is relatively pleased with last year's safety play.

I know a lot of fans in Houston want a true-old-style-roaming-speed- burning free safety, but that's not the style of safety Kubes covets. I'm not saying he wouldn't play one if he fell into our hands, but I just can't see Kubuak giving up a top draft choice to get one of those guys. On the other hand, if a tremendous SS fell to us in the second round, one who was an exceptional tackler and also good in coverage, I guess the Texans might take him. But I don't see anyone like that on the horizon. So I personally see us going with our two older veterans backed up by Harrison and Barber. Demps may get cut, but if he doesn't, that would create such a log jam at safety that I just don't see us going for a safety even in a lower round.

I'm thinking the most likely for our first pick is a run stuffing tackle as a rotation guy, or a DE who would allow us to cut Weaver and his huge salary. I could also see up going for a LB if the coaches fall in love with one. I could even see us going for Moreno if the coaches are in love with him. If we go with a DE in the first, I could see us going for another one in a lower round. The roster right now isn't exactly full of talented DEs.

What makes you think this is what's in Kubiak's head? What would indicate Kubiak does not covet this kind of safety?

First off Kubiak has not run our defense the last 3 years so I don't think it's about what Kubiak covets. Second, a new DC means changes in defensive scheme and different uses of personnel. If Bush wants to play the DL upfield more like he talked about it may mean we play more man with our CBs. Or it may not. It may mean we blitz our safeties and LBs more or it may not. It may mean we continue playing the ridiculous "we don'thave a FS, we have two interchangable Safeties (who can't cover) defense." Or again, we may not.

My point is that we don't know exactly how personnel will be used under Bush other than we will run a 4-3 front and it won't be cover 2. Outside of that he has stated only an intension to be more aggressive (like every new DC).

Now it doesn't look like a FS worth the slot will be available at 15, so my guess is DL or a tradedown (I hope for tradedown). But we certainly can't go eliminating positions based on the tendencies of a defense under a new coordinator we have never seen in that role.

[Bigtinylittle]

I can agree it's too early to definately eliminate positions, especially since trades, cuts, and free agent signings could change the roster before the draft.

An interesting comment Lance Zurlein made on his blog this week is that the league is moving toward interchangable safeties. I don't have the exact quote but it can't be hard to find.

By the way, I'm not saying I'm personally against drafting a superstar safety. I'm pretty much in favor of us adding a superstar at just about any position. I think without a doubt our greatest need right now is at DE, but not to the point of reaching for one.

If we go for a safety in the second or third round, or if we trade down in the first and take one, I won't automatically be opposed to it. I AM opposed to taking one at 15 though. I just don't see one good enough to take that early.

[nunusguy]

The relative importance of safeties & corners in the Texans DBackfield is obviously going to be a function of the philosophy for the defense crafted from the Bush-Kollar alliance. If the Texans continue to emphasize man coverage with their CBs it seems unlikely that if they'd go DBackfield in the first round they'd draft a safety instead of a CB, even if D-Rob is retained.
I dunno that the Texans have done anything real surprising or unpredictible in the Draft since the big Mario pick of 2006, but this Draft has a different feel to me. I could see them really pulling a shocker in the first round if somebody they rated very high (say top 5 or so) is on the Board at 15 even if its a low-need position. Say for example the Texans have Jeremy McClain rated even higher than Crabtree at WR (he's faster than the TT guy and is also a kick/punt returner), and he's on the Board ?

[papabear]

I'm not against taking a D-lineman in the first, but it's also not my first choice. I think if we are going to go for a DT then it needs to be someone like Raji who is expected to be able to play more of 2gap space eating type of tackle. The problem with that is that I don't think the chances of any rookie DT being able to step in and dominate for 16 games (DT's need to grow into that position) so I doubt we would see the full benefit of Raji next year (that shouldn't be a reason not to pick him though).

If we're talking ends then I think we need a speed rush type guy who FLIES off the ball. The problem is most of those guys aren't very good against the run. So we are either using a first round pick on a specialist, or giving up a little in the run stopping department. I'm sure there are plenty of guys quick enough to be the speed rusher who are adequate against the run....there just very hard to find. With Mario at the other end and a hopefully improved interior we should be able to work around it, but if all we need is a specialist there should be a fast undersized DE later in the draft who could fill that role.

I would like upgrade our LB's too, but I think the most logical upgrade would be at SAM. Again, I'm not sure I want to use a first rounder on a guy who likely won't be a three down player. Demeco could be moved over to the WILL, but that puts another promising young player on the sidelines...so that new MLB better be pretty darn good.

I don't see CB because of Bennet, Molden, Reeves, and Dunta (assuming he comes back). I know most people would like to see Reeves gone, but even if that happened it would still be tough for them to get on the field even if you assume they beat out Molden.

Safety to me is the obvious choice based on needs, but I'm not sure if there are any there that are worthy. I am completely off of the Moore bandwagon. I wouldn't be upset if we took him, but it's not something I'm rooting for anymore.

I think you need to take a look at every player available when your turn comes up in the first round. It's hard enough to get 10 guys to agree on who the best is at position x....it's even harder to get everyone to agree on who is the best when comparing two guys at vastly different positions. That's where need should be the tiebreaker. I don't think we need anything other than better depth and a compliment to Slaton on offense, so I hope we get another difference maker on defense somewhere in the draft.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Say for example the Texans have Jeremy McClain rated even higher than Crabtree at WR (he's faster than the TT guy and is also a kick/punt returner), and he's on the Board ?

IF Jeremy Maclin is on the board and we DON'T draft him, then we'll know that the Texans are not using the BPA philosophy.