Wild Card Weekend Discussion [Split Thread]

[HPF Bob]

Eagles are so impressive the way they keep fighting through injuries. Wentz is the first NFL QB to throw for over 4000 and yet no receiver puts up even 500 yards - that's because they've been so beat up in the receiver corps.

As for playoff scheduling, the NFL is now checking the weather reports for New England to see when to schedule the Titans-Patriots game into the worst weather possible.

[chuck]

I'll go out on a limb and predict the Texans and Bills play Saturday early.

Also, the Bills are going to ass rape the Texans.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by chuck

I'll go out on a limb and predict the Texans and Bills play Saturday early.

Also, the Bills are going to ass rape the Texans.

The Patriots could be the primetime attraction which means the Texans would be the early Sunday game.

As for Texans-Bills, no offense meant to Buffalo but the Texans would probably lose to a hot passing team but they can hold their own with a team that doesn't throw well and Allen is not a top thrower, at least yet. It will be his first playoff game and it will be on the road. If Watson has all his weapons, I can see a 23-20 Houston victory. Plus, we get J.J. back as a motivator on defense.

[HPF Bob]

p.s. - I pleaded with the Texans to draft Hunter Renfrow, didn't I?

[chuck]

Dude, if the Texans had drafted every white guy you wanted them to draft they'd look like the Kinkaid Falcons.

[Arky]

Oddly, no spread, no playoff schedule, yet.... Maybe they are waiting for this SNF game to conclude....

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Arky

Oddly, no spread, no playoff schedule, yet.... Maybe they are waiting for this SNF game to conclude....

That was a really good game. I've about talked myself into believing that the Niners can win the NFC. Each of the truly good teams is seriously flawed in some way, so it will be great to see how it all shakes down.

[HPF Bob]

Sonovagun.

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday, Jan. 4:
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 4 Houston Texans, 4:35 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
No. 6 Tennessee Titans at No. 3 New England, 8:15 p.m. (CBS)

Sunday, Jan. 5:
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 New Orleans Saints, 1:05 p.m. (FOX)
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles, 4:40 p.m. (NBC)

I was right that the NFL would put the Patriots in prime time (and on CBS which helps confirm my theory that the NFL has an arrangement to make sure there is a Patriots home playoff game every year so the CBS sports bar at Gillette Stadium has an extra pay date) but I was wrong to presume that would put the other AFC game involving the Texans on Sunday.

Breaking with tradition, the NFL is having both AFC games on Saturday and both NFC games on Sunday.

Vikings and Saints....I think I've seen that playoff matchup before.

[Arky]

Spreads are out:

Texans -3 over Bills

Pats -5½ over Titans

Saints -8 over Vikes

Seahawks pickem to -1 over Eagles

All home teams are favored except for the Seahawks who are visiting Philly...

[nunusguy]

I think Vrabel goes into NE and takes out the old codgers. Anymore it's fairly routine for the Pats to lose including at home which they've done in two of their last three games in Foxburo.
Have no idea who shows for the Texans this weekend ?

[Keith]

Mod note: Splitting this wild card discussion from the Titans game thread.

Originally Posted by Arky

Texans -3 over Bills

Pats -5½ over Titans

Saints -8 over Vikes

Seahawks pickem to -1 over Eagles

All home teams are favored except for the Seahawks who are visiting Philly...

Yikes, a home dog in the playoffs. I'm usually way better picking heads up instead of against the spread, but I'd avoid picking the Seahawks especially if that spread grows over the week. So give me the Eagles (+1).

My other amateur spread picks...
Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans. Plus their WR Brown gives me happy thoughts of what a young Andre Johnson was like. And seeing the Patriots lose at home on *shudder* wild card weekend is a bit of wish fulfillment.

Vikings (+8) but Saints to win... New Orleans is one of the tougher #3 seeds in recent memory. Hard to pick a game giving up more than a TD though as I think the Vikings will play hard throughout, but I could also see this being a blowout win for the Saints.

pick wisely...your mileage may vary.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Mod note: Splitting this wild card discussion from the Titans game thread.


Yikes, a home dog in the playoffs. I'm usually way better picking heads up instead of against the spread, but I'd avoid picking the Seahawks especially if that spread grows over the week. So give me the Eagles (+1).

My other amateur spread picks...
Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans. Plus their WR Brown gives me happy thoughts of what a young Andre Johnson was like. And seeing the Patriots lose at home on *shudder* wild card weekend is a bit of wish fulfillment.

Vikings (+8) but Saints to win... New Orleans is one of the tougher #3 seeds in recent memory. Hard to pick a game giving up more than a TD though as I think the Vikings will play hard throughout, but I could also see this being a blowout win for the Saints.

pick wisely...your mileage may vary.

Very good. If you haven't guessed by now, I kinda like these discussions. I'm interested in the whole science behind trying to beat the spread...

Having said that, I had a terrible year this year. Even picking straight up.
I started out OK, but it went south during the season. I zigged when I should've zagged. In the money contest I'm in, I went 0-5 to finish the contest culminating in a best bet on the Seahawks that came up about a ½ foot short of covering on SNF. That's the way it goes sometimes....

I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).

Good Texans will cover, bad Texans won't. I know, not much insight with that statement.... I keep waiting for the Texan defense to find itself - a bit like the Chiefs defense of late. It's lose-and-you-go-home time, so time to get it going.... If you can't beat the Bills.......

Yes, AJ Brown is beasty. Pats are showing some cracks. Very well could be a Titans upset... Tough to go against the Pats at home, though..

I'm leaning Russell Wilson to get it done up in Philly but need to look into it a bit more...

Sometimes the simplest logic is the correct one. I think I over-analyzed quite a bit this year and it led me astray... At any rate, just some thoughts from a guy on a losing streak, eheh....

[HPF Bob]

AJ Brown is All-Airport, alright. He lasted longer in the draft because of character concerns but, on raw talent, he may be better than his Ole Miss teammate Metcalf. Brown can be another Terrell Owens if he can stay focused.

I see the Texans-Bills game as being similar to the Oakland wild card game we had here when Osweiler was QB. Buffalo has a lot of good players but a suspect quarterback. Romeo needs to focus on the ground game, use McKinney as a spy, mix up the blitz packages and let their QB know the playoffs are a different animal. Conversely, Watson needs to utilize the TE, give Fuller V a few deep looks and then find Stills coming from the slot. If the Bills switch off D-Hop then start looking for him. OL needs to block well or it may be one of those 13-10 contests.

Having J.J. back at home should fire up the crowd to another level.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Arky

I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).

Yeah, if I flip on any of my picks, this would be the one. Chances of a Saints blowout victory are rather large. The Vikings are running out of steam.

Ok, I'll flip and take the Saints (-8) at home.

The Pats will probably do well to take Brown out of the game, kinda how they do when playing the Texans to take away their best option to make you beat them with someone lesser. Winning at Foxboro is tough, but these are not your older brother's Patriots anymore. Gronk is not walking out of that tunnel. Feels weird to say, but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

.......... but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

Yep, me too. My disdain for the Pats supercedes the same for the Titans. I'll probably end up picking the Pats to win - they aren't dead until someone knocks them out. It's a bounce-back situation for the Pats after losing to the Dolphins - a wake up call. Titans have a good chance to cover the 5 pts, though.... Pats by a 4th qtr FG?

[HPF Bob]

Pats by a 4th qtr clearly blown call?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

As for playoff scheduling, the NFL is now checking the weather reports for New England to see when to schedule the Titans-Patriots game into the worst weather possible.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/w...in-foxborough/

Winter Storm Henry in the forecast for Titans-Patriots wild-card matchup in Foxborough

I hope it's Winter Storm Derrick Henry and he proves an unstoppable force of nature...

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Well, a push at -3, though this line moved to -2.5 or so after this tweet. Predictably slow start for the Texans offense is why we all felt this game would be closer than it should. Texans should be getting a healthy amount of points at either KC or Baltimore next weekend.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans.

Originally Posted by Keith

The Pats will probably do well to take Brown out of the game, kinda how they do when playing the Texans to take away their best option to make you beat them with someone lesser. Winning at Foxboro is tough, but these are not your older brother's Patriots anymore. Gronk is not walking out of that tunnel. Feels weird to say, but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

Choo choo!

And no, do not expect me to update this again if I am ever wrong.

[Arky]

Point spreads of KC over Houston and Baltimore over Tennessee are roughly the same at about 10 points each. The money lines are roughly +350 for both underdogs.

I think the Titans vs. Ravens matchup should be pretty good and I will be watching with great interest. The Titans may not win but I think they can give the Ravens a good game...

The Texans.....they just can't dilly-dally for a half if they expect to win. The Chiefs will have the Texan secondary running wind sprints all game.....

Chances of both the Texans and the Titans winning and making it to the AFC Championship game? Plug +350 twice into a parlay calculator and you get 19.25. So, it's a 19.25 to 1 shot that both teams win. A $10 two-team parlay bet wins $192.50. If you're a hold'em player, that's about a 2-outer. Not very likely but not impossible....