2nd Half Reset

[HPF Bob]

It looks like maybe the Texans-Patriots game was a mirage. The Texans aren't really that good and the Patriots are worse than we thought.

Here's the Week 14 playoff standings:

Baltimore 11-2 (7-2)
New England 10-3 (6-3)
Kansas City 9-4 (7-3)
Houston 8-5 (7-3)
Buffalo 9-4 (6-3)
Pittsburgh 8-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 8-5 (6-4)
Cleveland 6-7 (6-4)
Indianapolis 6-7 (5-6)
Oakland 6-7 (4-5)

Those last three are two games back in the wild card and will need to run the table and hope for help. Houston has a one-game tiebreaker lead on Tennessee based on division record (3-1 compared to 2-2) but the two remaining head-to-head games will decide the division. If one or the other sweeps, they're in. If they split, Houston will go unless Houston loses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee beats New Orleans.

[HPF Bob]

Houston's win over Tennessee puts them on the cusp of clinching the AFC South with two weeks to play. A win over Tampa or Tennessee the final two weeks or a Titan loss to New Orleans in Week 16 seals the deal.

In addition, the Texans are almost stuck as the #4 playoff seed unless Kansas City slips to either the Bears or Chargers while the Texans run the table. Therefore, it's all but assured that the Texans will host Buffalo in the Wild Card round (conference records, final opponents in parentheses):

Baltimore 12-2 (8-2, @ CLE, vs PIT)
New England 11-3 (7-3, vs BUF, vs MIA)
Kansas City 10-4 (8-3, @ CHI, vs LAC)
Houston 9-5 (8-3, @ TAM, vs TEN)
Buffalo 10-4 (7-3, @ NE, vs NYJ)
Pittsburgh 8-6 (6-4, @ NYJ, @ BAL)
----------------------------------------------
Tennessee 8-6 (6-5, vs NO, @ HOU)

As I write, Indy (6-7) still has a tiny chance of making the wild card but they would need to run the table and hope Pittsburgh tanks.

The other wrench in the situation is if Buffalo upsets New England this week and then captures the AFC East which then means the wild card game could be a rematch of New England at Houston. Personally, I'd rather face Buffalo because I think Josh Allen could be rattled in his first playoff game.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Personally, I'd rather face Buffalo because I think Josh Allen could be rattled in his first playoff game.

Yeah but...
beat Buffalo at home then the Texans likely have to go to Foxboro the following week. Looking past a home game in the wild card round is surely foolish with this team, but would you rather:

Bills at home then the Patriots on the road
or
Patriots at home and Bills on the road?

Kinda think that while getting the Bills first is the best chance to go to the divisional round that the best path to the conference championship might be the latter.

[Arky]

The Ravens are the looming monster. They look pretty much unstoppable to get to the AFCC game. So, not to dismiss Pitt (or even Tenn), but it looks like it will be a fight between Texans, Bills, Chiefs and Pats over who eventually gets to meet the monster.

The Bills @ Pats game follows the Texans @ Bucs game this Saturday. Should be a good one - gotta think the spunky Bills will give the Pats a hard time - possibly win......

[HPF Bob]

It's a Brees! Indy is officially eliminated so only seven AFC teams are left for six playoffs spots with Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Houston the only ones who haven't clinched a spot. As noted earlier, Houston just needs to win one of their final two games to clinch the AFC South. Pittsburgh has the edge on the last wild card spot but they still must beat Baltimore or hope Tennessee loses to either New Orleans or Houston in the final two weeks.

Just to clarify, if Houston is the #4 seed as expected, then a first-round win almost surely means a second-round rematch in Baltimore, not New England. The Ravens own the tiebreaker with New England so even if they share the same regular-season record, Baltimore will still be the #1 seed.

[Keith]

Ha.

I'm rooting for the 6th seed, obvs.

[chuck]

I'd rather not travel to Buffalo for a playoff game if you don't mind. I don't know why, exactly, but it just feels like a bad idea.