2nd Half Reset

[Arky]

Fivethirtyeight.com now has the Texans with an 80% chance to make the playoffs and 64% chance to win the division. Just an 8% chance to get a 1st round bye. Pats and Ravens would seem to have those two 1st round byes locked up although, the Texans could mess things up with a win over the Pats on SNF.....

Colts have fallen to 34% chance to make the playoffs and and a 19% chance to win the division...

Texans now power-ranked 10th in their calculations.....

[HPF Bob]

Updated week 13 AFC playoff standings...

Baltimore 10-2 (6-2)
New England 10-2 (6-2)
Houston 8-4 (7-2)
Kansas City 8-4 (6-3)
Buffalo 9-3 (6-2)
Pittsburgh 7-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 7-5 (5-4)
Oakland 6-6 (4-4)
Indianapolis 6-6 (5-6)
Cleveland 5-7 (5-4)

Baltimore has head-to-head tiebreak with New England, Houston has head-to-head tiebreak with Kansas City, Pittsburgh has conference record tiebreaker with Tennessee. Pittsburgh would be the visitor for wild card week in Houston if the standings stayed this way until the end of the season.

[HPF Bob]

Final four week schedule for each contending team:

Baltimore
---------------
@ BUF
vs NYJ
@ CLE
vs PIT

New England
---------------
vs KC
@ CIN
vs BUF
vs MIA

Houston
--------------
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

Kansas City
--------------
@ NE
vs DEN
@ CHI
vs LAC

Buffalo
--------------
vs BAL
@ PIT
@ NE
vs NYJ

Pittsburgh
--------------
@ ARI
vs BUF
@ NYJ
@ BAL

Tennessee
--------------
@ OAK
vs HOU
vs NO
@ HOU

Oakland
--------------
vs TEN
vs JAX
@ LAC
@ DEN

Indianapolis
---------------
@ TAM
@ NO
vs CAR
@ JAX

[HPF Bob]

From CBS Sports:

That was a statement win by the Texans that keeps them in the lead for the division and throws the AFC into chaos. The Texans have a tiebreaker over the Chiefs and Patriots, the Chiefs have a tiebreaker over the Ravens, the Ravens have a tiebreaker over the Patriots and the Chiefs and Patriots are playing next week.

Oh, and let's not forget the Bills are lingering with a chance to snipe the division. In fact, the Bills can actually steal the No. 1 overall AFC seed -- if they win out (they play the Ravens next week and have the Patriots again) and the Chiefs beat the Pats next week, Buffalo would be the top seed in the AFC. This race is going to be wild down the stretch.

BTW, the Patriots have had a home field playoff game every year since 2008 (the year Brady got knee-capped and they had to play Matt Cassel at QB). It would be really sweet to watch the Patriots have to try to reach the Super Bowl via three road games without their sloppy weather for a change.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Final four week schedule for each contending team:

Houston
--------------
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

I can see the Texans going 3-1 in those games. Beating Denver and Tampa, and splitting with Tennessee.

It would be nice to win out, but this is a Houston team and nothing ever goes the easy way.

[Arky]

If the Chiefs can beat the Pats next weekend in Foxboro (Pats favored by 3), that could really make things interesting. Still, although the Texans have the tie-breaker over both the Chiefs and Pats, the Texans winning out would seem to be very difficult...

[HPF Bob]

It looks like maybe the Texans-Patriots game was a mirage. The Texans aren't really that good and the Patriots are worse than we thought.

Here's the Week 14 playoff standings:

Baltimore 11-2 (7-2)
New England 10-3 (6-3)
Kansas City 9-4 (7-3)
Houston 8-5 (7-3)
Buffalo 9-4 (6-3)
Pittsburgh 8-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 8-5 (6-4)
Cleveland 6-7 (6-4)
Indianapolis 6-7 (5-6)
Oakland 6-7 (4-5)

Those last three are two games back in the wild card and will need to run the table and hope for help. Houston has a one-game tiebreaker lead on Tennessee based on division record (3-1 compared to 2-2) but the two remaining head-to-head games will decide the division. If one or the other sweeps, they're in. If they split, Houston will go unless Houston loses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee beats New Orleans.

[HPF Bob]

Houston's win over Tennessee puts them on the cusp of clinching the AFC South with two weeks to play. A win over Tampa or Tennessee the final two weeks or a Titan loss to New Orleans in Week 16 seals the deal.

In addition, the Texans are almost stuck as the #4 playoff seed unless Kansas City slips to either the Bears or Chargers while the Texans run the table. Therefore, it's all but assured that the Texans will host Buffalo in the Wild Card round (conference records, final opponents in parentheses):

Baltimore 12-2 (8-2, @ CLE, vs PIT)
New England 11-3 (7-3, vs BUF, vs MIA)
Kansas City 10-4 (8-3, @ CHI, vs LAC)
Houston 9-5 (8-3, @ TAM, vs TEN)
Buffalo 10-4 (7-3, @ NE, vs NYJ)
Pittsburgh 8-6 (6-4, @ NYJ, @ BAL)
----------------------------------------------
Tennessee 8-6 (6-5, vs NO, @ HOU)

As I write, Indy (6-7) still has a tiny chance of making the wild card but they would need to run the table and hope Pittsburgh tanks.

The other wrench in the situation is if Buffalo upsets New England this week and then captures the AFC East which then means the wild card game could be a rematch of New England at Houston. Personally, I'd rather face Buffalo because I think Josh Allen could be rattled in his first playoff game.