Official Texans @ Chargers Game Thread, 9/22/2019

[HPF Bob]

The oddsmakers are essentially calling this a "pick 'em" (it's presumed home teams get three points for being at home). I guess the Chargers so far haven't distinguished themselves (OT home win and close road loss) while the Texans (close road loss, close home win) haven't distinguished themselves either. D-Hop aside, I just think the Chargers have better weapons.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The oddsmakers are essentially calling this a "pick 'em" (it's presumed home teams get three points for being at home). I guess the Chargers so far haven't distinguished themselves (OT home win and close road loss) while the Texans (close road loss, close home win) haven't distinguished themselves either. D-Hop aside, I just think the Chargers have better weapons.

Ya, in the cash pickem contest I am in, so far 80% are taking the Texans and the points. (This is only exceeded by 87% on the Rams over Browns on SNF.) This is at a website full of gamblers. Doesn't mean they're right - I see these lopsided picks fail all the time but it does show there is generally favorable sentiment towards the Texans (Watson effect?).

In the ESPN spread pickem contest, it's a little more milder 62% on the Texans. Very much a John Q Public sampling.

There's a relatively new buzz phrase going around called "recency bias". This is where you allow a strong (or weak) recent team performance to influence your decision. Not something to be relied on, but more like something to be acknowledged...

[HPF Bob]

Allegedly, the Dallas-Miami game this week is setting a record for the largest Vegas point spread in gambling history. You remember what happened when that occurred in baseball recently? The Detroit Tigers beat Justin Verlander in Houston. Somebody made a huge payday on that.

There's one week every year where the NFL is filled with upsets. I think the NFLPA heads to Vegas that week and lays their pension funds on the underdogs and the players on good teams are instructed to lay down. Don't make it too obvious but just fumble or throw a pick at a crucial time so the union gets paid.

[Arky]

A $100 2-team moneyline parlay bet with the Jets (+1375 to beat the Pats) and the Dolphins (+1375 to beat the Cowboys) will win you $21,656.25.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Arky

A $100 2-team moneyline parlay bet with the Jets (+1375 to beat the Pats) and the Dolphins (+1375 to beat the Cowboys) will win you $21,656.25.

Will lose you $100 I think is what you meant to say.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

Will lose you $100 I think is what you meant to say.

Eheh, true. I love doggie ML parlays but even that one is too steep for me...

[Arky]

Texans kicking off to the Chargers. Touchback.

Texans force them into a 3 and out. Chargers punting to the Texans.

Carter brings it back to about the Texan 26. Texans ball.

12:45 left in the 1st qtr.