Official Texans vs. Jags Game Thread, 12/30/2018

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

Zierlein speculated that BOB was running Watson so much because he wants next week's opponent to have to spend time game planning that.

That suggests guile on OB's part....

If memory serves, we should learn times and pairings sometime during the SNF game tonight.....

[chuck]

Early game on Saturday, in case there was any doubt at all.

[barrett]

During the game today CBS ran a graphic about how a team has gone last to first for 15 of the past 16 seasons. This year the Texans and Bears did it. They marvel over how this happens.

How it happens is the NFL openly doctors the schedule to make it happen. 13% of your schedule is determined by your divisional finish. So last year the Jags used the last place schedule to win a division and everyone declared them good. Then they played a first place schedule with the same roster and went 5-11. The NFL is a tiny sample size league and a few extra wins here or there change the whole tone of a season.

So the Texans got last place last year and because of that got to beat the Broncos and Browns (last place teams from a year ago). The Colts went 1-1 against the Raiders and Bengals. The Titans went 0-2 against the Ravens and Chargers. That means every team went 9-5 against their identical schedule and the division was handed to the Texans and the playoffs to the Colts via artificial parity.

It honestly amazes me that the NFL does this and everyone just accepts it. There is no way MLB would just say the Rangers got last so they get an extra 10 games against the Tigers and Orioles next year while the Astros play 10 extra against the Red Sox and Indians. But somehow the NFL sells parity through a doctored schedule and everyone just accepts it.

[Keith]

It's a good point about the scheduling. The Texans clearly benefited from an easy slate of opponents this season. Next season? They get the Patriots and Ravens on the schedule (while facing the rotation of division opponents from the AFC West and NFC South).

[Arky]

Early line = Texans by 2½ over the Colts.

Others:

Dallas by 2½ over Seattle

Baltimore 2½ to 3 over LAC

Chicago 5½ over Philly

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Arky

Early line = Texans by 2½ over the Colts.

Others:

Dallas by 2½ over Seattle

Baltimore 2½ to 3 over LAC

Chicago 5½ over Philly

If I were a betting man, and I'm not, thankfully, since I have more than enough problems as it is, but if I were a betting man, I would wong the shit out of those three 2.5 point dogs.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by chuck

If I were a betting man, and I'm not, thankfully, since I have more than enough problems as it is, but if I were a betting man, I would wong the shit out of those three 2.5 point dogs.

Road teams are typically bad plays in the playoffs but not necessarily the first round. Parlay all four road dogs and I'd bet you'd get 2-3 winners. Even if they lose the game, they could beat the spread.

[HPF Bob]

So the Texans got last place last year and because of that got to beat the Broncos and Browns (last place teams from a year ago). The Colts went 1-1 against the Raiders and Bengals. The Titans went 0-2 against the Ravens and Chargers. That means every team went 9-5 against their identical schedule and the division was handed to the Texans and the playoffs to the Colts via artificial parity.

Except Cleveland and Denver went 13-18-1 this year while Cincy and Oakland went 10-22, implying the Colts had an easier schedule than the Texans had.

At the beginning of each season, people print "strength of schedule" columns as to why Team X will be better and Team Y will collapse and it all looks like crap by the end of the year. You can't base your team's success on the previous year's results (except New England).

Personally, I love how they select opponents. It's like the Electoral College in that it's a little screwy but ultimately is the best and fairest option out there.

I remember going through almost 20 years of NFL schedules with the Cowboys and Raiders in their primes never playing a meaningful game against each other.

Screw that. I want to see everyone *have* to play everyone eventually and this guarantees you face every conference opponent at least once every three years and every non-conference opponent at least once every four years. Plus, it guarantees every division winner will be seeing four other division champs the following season each year.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Road teams are typically bad plays in the playoffs but not necessarily the first round. Parlay all four road dogs and I'd bet you'd get 2-3 winners. Even if they lose the game, they could beat the spread.

Arky knows what I would do. Take the dogs (who I think are likely to win outright in each case), tease them up 6 points and parlay the three.