Official Texans vs. Chiefs Game Thread, 09/18/2016

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

All things NFL suffer from small sample size because of the tiny amount of games, so statistical analysis in the NFL suffers compared to other sports. Additionally, NE's overall record since 2001 is 182-58, which is better than 12-4 on average. And under Brady they are 92-15 at home.

So in a very small sample size of 12 games, NE is slightly better as a home dog than they are overall, and they are slightly worse than they are at home overall.

I suppose that's one way to look at it. Using your numbers:

182-58 = 75.8% win percentage

12-4 = 75% win percentage

92-15 (Brady@home) = 86% win percentage

Yes, 11-1 or 10-2 are small sample sizes but they do represent trends. 5-3 or 12-10 or 148-127 are not really trends - those are more like coinflip results.....My point is, people will wager large amounts of money on trends and trend bettors will be all over New England on Thursday....

And I guess another factor here is most of New England's recent outstanding numbers have been compiled with Brady and Belichick running the show. Garoppolo was looking like he could carry the load no problem but now, we will probably see Brissett and his numbers are essentially 0-0 (with a nice relief job yesterday)....