Let's Talk 2016 NFL Draft Quarterbacks

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Warren

I don't think that college completion percentage is a good measure of accuracy, although a particularly low percentage can be an indication of a problem. When I say "accuracy" I mean ball placement, touch, etc. A college QB's completion percentage can be skewed by his offense, if he's mainly only being asked to make the easy throws, and all college stats can be suspect due to the big talent differences that can exist between teams. Florida probably only played a handful of teams during Tebow's career that were as or more talented than they were. Tebow didn't have to have pinpoint precision throwing to guys like Aaron Hernandez and Percy Harvin against college DBs, but in the NFL he found out that the coverage is much tighter. I do agree that he had other issues, and no doubt his bad mechanics played a big part in his lack of accuracy.

I think the accuracy got worse when he tried to correct the mechanics. The accuracy was definitely a problem, but he couldn't read an NFL defense and started looking to bail from the pocket at about the 1 second mark. In college he only read half the field, never called audibles, never took snaps, etc...

The number of successful NFL QBs who played in the spread in College is tiny. Cam Newton is one, and I can't really come up with another one with any kind of sustained success. Half of being an NFL QB is pre-snap, and the spread guys spend the whole pre-snap period looking at their coach and waiting for him to tell the whole team what to do.

[Warren]

Can't disagree with that, especially if you mean specifically the spread option. Alex Smith has overcome a shaky start to have a solid but unspectacular career. We'll see what Mariotta does.

[Roy P]

My observation is that high school spread offense has bubbled up to the NCAAA. Eventually the NFL has to adapt and realize that the talent pool is geared towards those types of athletes. You either adapt and evolve or you die. Instead of being stubborn, embrace the skills that are presented and get ahead of the curve. Mariota looked serviceable. Kapernick and even Vince Young looked productive when the offense was tailored

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

My observation is that high school spread offense has bubbled up to the NCAAA. Eventually the NFL has to adapt and realize that the talent pool is geared towards those types of athletes. You either adapt and evolve or you die. Instead of being stubborn, embrace the skills that are presented and get ahead of the curve. Mariota looked serviceable. Kapernick and even Vince Young looked productive when the offense was tailored

In HS 90% of the talent is on offense. That's where you put your athletes. So the spread allows for a team to put athletes in space against over matched defenders. It is wildly successful. Plus every Head Coach is an offensive guy, and the defensive guys are levels below schematically. Tons of HS offensive coaches are getting college jobs these days. No HS defensive guys are. I coached on the HS level and it is obvious where the coaching and athletic talent is (Katy HS is the exception, and they ate the best spread offenses for breakfast this season with most of their talent and all of their coaching invested on the defensive side).

In college the talent is closer to 50/50, but the QBs are still faster and sometimes bigger than almost everyone trying to tackle them. It still works, but the very best teams slow it down.

In the NFL, %90 of the athletic talent is on the defense. Putting a guy one on one in space usually results in a tackle. The best defensive coaches are all in the NFL, while many of the best offensive minds are not. Put it altogether, and the spread doesn't work in the same ways on the NFL level. On the NFL level you are dead in the water if you can't manipulate the opposing team's personnel. The spread doesn't do that well. Plus in HS and College you replace your QB every 1-3 years. Injury is not as big a concern. In the NFL you want to keep a good QB 10 years so you can't expose him to the same amount of hits.

The best NFL offenses already incorporate the best parts of the spreads and mix them with the best parts of Pro Style offenses. I doubt you ever see an NFL team run a HS style spread and win big.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

I doubt you ever see an NFL team run a HS style spread and win big.

Great post. Fully agree.

The speed of NFL defenses is just insane.

Count me as not surprised Mariota got hurt in his rookie season, too.

Speaking of... this thread reminds me of the one we had about two years ago. Fun read to look back if anyone has the time.
http://www.inthebullseye.com/forums/...ead.php?t=1724

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Keith

Speaking of... this thread reminds me of the one we had about two years ago. Fun read to look back if anyone has the time.
http://www.inthebullseye.com/forums/...ead.php?t=1724

Here's a hot take from our local quarterback guru, an outSTANding evaluator of how college quarterbacking talent will translate to the NFL:

The hype is wearying and it pains me to say it but I think that with some coaching and some maturity Manziel could be a very successful NFL quarterback.

I could see Manziel translating to the NFL much more clearly than I could Mariota.

Nailed it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

Here's a hot take from our local quarterback guru, an outSTANding evaluator of how college quarterbacking talent will translate to the NFL:



Nailed it.

We would all look dumb if we looked back at old draft prognostications. I remember almost the entire board declaring JJ Watt to be a terrible pick. I remember Jake Locker was going to lead the Titans to destroy us every year. I was an Amobi Okoye fan. The paid experts get it right less than half the time. The media experts less than that. And despite our awesome football knowledge, the amateur draftniks who don't get access to half the knowledge the teams do, we get it right even less.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

...The hype is wearying and it pains me to say it but I think that with some coaching and some maturity Manziel could be a very successful NFL quarterback.....

Nailed it.

I wouldn't be too hard on yourself.... Manziel doesn't seem to have the maturity thing down, yet... Seems he's been attending the Charlie Sheen Sports Academy....

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Keith

Speaking of... this thread reminds me of the one we had about two years ago. Fun read to look back if anyone has the time.
http://www.inthebullseye.com/forums/...ead.php?t=1724

Just took a look at the old thread. Besides aeeing the banter about Manziel, Carr, Bridgewater, and Bortles; there was a post by Keith showing a Youtube video of OB about what he wants in a QB. So, I went to Youtube and watched it. Ironicly he mentioned the Eagles' QB coach Bill Lazor. I was excited that perhaps if OB respected him then, perhaps we could sign him as our QB coach now. Since the video, Lazor was hired as the OC for Philbin and the Dolphins. Then was let go when Philbin was fired even though Tannehill was signed as a Franchise QB. Unfortunately, the Bengals beat us to the punch and hired Lazor to be Andy Dalton's coach.

Listening to OB discuss all of the things that a QB has to understand about reading defenses and making good decisions and educating a QB to increase his football IQ, it seems imperative to me that we have an assigned coach whose sole responsibility is to make sure that the message/vision that the HC & OC have in mind is taught to your QB. We hear how complex this Offense is and how difficult it is to learn. We assume that a veteran QB with experience (Hoyer) might be kept on the roster to mentor his successor, but I would think that the experienced QB is more concerned about starting himself, learning the game plan and preparing to play the next game more than he would be in training someone else.

[Roy P]

This is what I think happens after listening to OB. The Texans sign Matt McGloin this off-season, give Tom Savage a legitimate opportunity to earn the starting job, and draft Stanford QB Kevin Hogan instead of Hackenberg. Just my gut impression.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

......and the spread guys spend the whole pre-snap period looking at their coach and waiting for him to tell the whole team what to do.

As a viewer, that's a major distraction these days.. I recall watching a MAC game this year - both team's offenses were spending at times, a full 10 seconds staring at their respective sidelines waiting for the call to come in.... Just inefficient and tough to watch from a viewer's perspective...