Let's Talk 2016 Texans Draft

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

But if the multi-purpose version of Todd Gurley is in the draft, I don't run from him at #22 if the draft falls that way.

I would not be upset at all if they took Elliott at #22. IMO, RB is the 2nd highest need on this team. I just think if the draft fell that way (and hypothetically the QBs were gone), I'd take the LT/RT/OL over the RB and gamble that I'd find the RB in the later rounds. And as for RB, I think Foster is gone next year, and despite how well Blue played at the end, I don't think he's the answer. I think we're all in agreement this team needs a serious infusion of talent at at least 3 of the 4 offensive skill positions. Elliott would be nice to have, for sure.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

I would not be upset at all if they took Elliott at #22. IMO, RB is the 2nd highest need on this team. I just think if the draft fell that way (and hypothetically the QBs were gone), I'd take the LT/RT/OL over the RB and gamble that I'd find the RB in the later rounds. And as for RB, I think Foster is gone next year, and despite how well Blue played at the end, I don't think he's the answer. I think we're all in agreement this team needs a serious infusion of talent at at least 3 of the 4 offensive skill positions. Elliott would be nice to have, for sure.

I agree completely with this thinking. It honestly seems like there are 10 guys in the world who can play QB, about 25 who can really rush the passer, and about 200 who can play RB. The Steelers signed a few guys off the street and they were tough last week.

Since 200 guys can run the ball, at RB I can only see paying anything (in $$$ or draft picks) for 3 qualities

(1) Home Run ability. If a guy can break long ones it changes everything. You don't need to perfectly execute a dozen plays in a row to score. This is doubly valuable when you don't have a big time QB converting 3rd downs. The same is true for a WR. Value $$$

(2) A passing game weapon at RB. I don't just mean a guy who catches the ball well. I mean a guy who is a matchup problem and keeps the other team from rushing LBs/Safeties because they are afraid of what he can do out of the backfield. A guy who can split out or go to the slot and actually win 1 on 1s. A guy who picks up the blitz. A guy whose presence on the field gives the defense no indicator because he is equally valuable running and catching (Foster last year for us, healthy Leveon Bell). A complete TE compromises the defense in the same way because he is equally valuable in passing or running situations and gives the defense no pre snap indicator. I wouldn't go TE in the 1st unless he is going to block enough to punish a nickel/dime defense and be a true weapon catching it. Value $$$

(3) Short Yardage ability. Self-explanatory. Value $

If a guy has all 3 qualities and is a monster on regular running plays, I don't mind spending a low 1st. I think the low value of RBs makes guys like this a little undervalued by association. If he doesn't have all 3 I don't even consider spending a 3rd no matter how good a pure runner he is.

[HPF Bob]

CBS Sports.com mocks have the Texans taking a QB at #22 - Cook, per Brugler and Wentz per Rang although QBs tend to move up when they get good workouts.

[nunusguy]

Since the total value, according to the "NFL Draft Value Charts", of our first 3 picks in this Draft are approximately equivalent to the 10th overall pick in the Draft, so our options are clearly limited, very limited. So if we were to seriously consider moving further up into the first round of the Draft than the 10th pick then we also have to consider including future year picks (including first rounders) and then a team is really into mortgaging their future for a franchise QB. So if we go that route forget about filling other needs like drafting high a stud running back this year. And I don't see any promising options at QB in free agency this year ?
So the Texans are gonna have to do a lot of research and some soul searching in the offseason to set their long-term priorities.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

So if we were to seriously consider moving further up into the first round of the Draft than the 10th pick then we also have to consider including future year picks (including first rounders) and then a team is really into mortgaging their future for a franchise QB. So if we go that route forget about filling other needs like drafting high a stud running back this year. And I don't see any promising options at QB in free agency this year ?

If you draft the right QB, then the mortgage is worth it. How high the team theoretically moves up depends on how comfortable they are with the top 5 (Goff, Lynch, Cook, Wentz, Hack in some order) QB prospects. If they really love just one, then they should consider moving up. If at least 3 or 4 would work, then probably sit and watch most of the first 20 picks.

Unlike stud QBs, stud RBs are found all over. I'd be more concerned about not having the round 2-3 pick available for a TE, but even still, there's bound to be prospects in the mid rounds far better than what is already on the roster.

Can't let pick value dictate your QB needs. This is how the Texans got XSF over a QB.

[barrett]

I'd be willing to offer all of our 2nd-4th round picks through the end of Rick Smith's tenure as GM. It's not like those picks have had any value on his watch.