New Texans (FA/Trade)

[barrett]

I guess everyone is convinced Shorts will really flourish when he gets a chance to play with the Texans' QBs?

I really don't want to fill holes. This team is going nowhere this year. Accumulate talent. Draft BPA. Finish clearing the books of the regime change victims. Find out if Mallet can play. We should not tie up $1 of 2016 or beyond money in the name of signing veterans who might help us win that 10th game this year.

[Keith]

The Texans are not filling a 53-man roster with 53 1st round picks. All teams fill holes. And Shorts in particular is 27... I believe anyone the team would be signing (including Wilfork) would be doing it for more than just the 2015 season.

Anyone care to guess what Wes Welker looked like after the 2006 season, his last in Miami (led by Joey Harrington at QB)? Pedestrian speed and build, he was 26 years old and averaged 10.3 YPC with 1 TD in his final season with the Dolphins.

I am not suggesting Shorts is even half the player Welker was, or that the Texans have Tom Brady ready to throw him passes, but the point is there are underrated, affordable players out there who would fulfill secondary roles and thrive in the right opportunity.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

I really don't want to fill holes. This team is going nowhere this year. Accumulate talent. Draft BPA. Finish clearing the books of the regime change victims. Find out if Mallet can play. We should not tie up $1 of 2016 or beyond money in the name of signing veterans who might help us win that 10th game this year.

I highly doubt anyone at Kirby is operating with this philosophy. At least I hope not. I sure hope they're trying to upgrade at every conceivable spot they can, when they can, without killing the cap/future - regardless if they're doing it via the draft or FA. How do you find out if Mallett can play or be successful if you don't improve the talent around him (soon)? The Texans were already looking at Hartline. I'd rather take a flyer on Shorts over Hartline if the price is the same and he's affordable and without doing a stupid contract. I'd rather have Shorts in the slot over Martin or Johnson. Shoot, I'd almost take anyone in the slot over those two guys.

[popanot]

Another slot guy I hope they take a long look at during camp is Alan Bonner. Pretty sure he's still on the roster.

[barrett]

Free Agency is a racket. Out of every 100 URFA who sign about 10 will live up to their contracts and very few will exceed them. Unless you are a destination that players want to be at you have almost no chance at getting good deals because the Oaklands and Jacksonvilles of the world flood the marketplace with terrible contracts because they have money and nothing to do with it. This just isn't the time to build a roster. It's the time to finish one. And we are far from finished. The kind of smart bargain shopping you guys are talking about happens after the FA push is done and veterans spend a few weeks with no contract and no bidder.

And Welker did not leave Miami as a no name FA who could be had for a little contract. He left for a 2nd round pick. So if your argument is that we should be sending out 2nd rounders on unproven players because it worked in 2006, then I disagree. If your logic is we should sign a FA like 2006 Wes Welker, that FA never existed. The only time Wes Welker was ever an URFA it was as an old, overpaid, slot guy with concussion issues who signed with Denver.

Everybody gets excited about FA, but about 30 teams come out with buyer's remorse every year and end up cutting the guys they signed and carrying the dead money before the contracts ever end. Who is the best FA the Texans ever signed? Jonathon Joseph I guess? What's that make them? 1 for 10? 1 for 20?

Let me put it this way, when is the last time a non-playoff team successfully used FA as a significant part of building a roster?

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

Who is the best FA the Texans ever signed? Jonathon Joseph I guess? What's that make them? 1 for 10? 1 for 20?

Off the top of my head, Anthony Smith and Daniel Manning (the first go-round) were upgrades.

Let me put it this way, when is the last time a non-playoff team successfully used FA as a significant part of building a roster?

Why limit it to non-playoff teams? Your question makes it sound like FA is not worth participating in. It's an opportunity to bolster your roster. On paper, don't the Colts look really smart for picking up AJ and Gore?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

Off the top of my head, Anthony Smith and Daniel Manning (the first go-round) were upgrades.



Why limit it to non-playoff teams? Your question makes it sound like FA is not worth participating in. It's an opportunity to bolster your roster. On paper, don't the Colts look really smart for picking up AJ and Gore?

Like I said, it is a chance to finish your roster. I am betting that the AJ and Gore deals hurt far more than they help in 2017, since there is little chance either is on the roster but their dead money will be. So Indy is betting that they can win this year with those veterans. I mention non-playoff teams because in FA some players will take marginally less to sign with a contender. The Patriots are enough of a destination that they signed veterans last year without sacrificing any cap space. Of course they did that with big one year deals (Revis, Browner) that were only possible because they haven't signed too many dumb FAs in the past (Amendola is the only one I can think of to get long term money in FA from them).

We are not a contender and we are not a player or two away. Thus any deal that adds a half a win this year at the expense of a quarter of a win in 2016 and beyond is a bad deal.

As for signing cheap vets and unearthing hidden talents, the opportunity for that comes in a few weeks when guys have no jobs and sign short term deals with low guarantees. Right now all these guys are still waiting to get overpaid. Honestly we got more out of camp cuts and waiver wire guys last year than we did FA. I am glad we are mostly staying out of the FA market to this point.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

Like I said, it is a chance to finish your roster. I am betting that the AJ and Gore deals hurt far more than they help in 2017, since there is little chance either is on the roster but their dead money will be. So Indy is betting that they can win this year with those veterans. I mention non-playoff teams because in FA some players will take marginally less to sign with a contender. The Patriots are enough of a destination that they signed veterans last year without sacrificing any cap space. Of course they did that with big one year deals (Revis, Browner) that were only possible because they haven't signed too many dumb FAs in the past (Amendola is the only one I can think of to get long term money in FA from them).

We are not a contender and we are not a player or two away. Thus any deal that adds a half a win this year at the expense of a quarter of a win in 2016 and beyond is a bad deal.

As for signing cheap vets and unearthing hidden talents, the opportunity for that comes in a few weeks when guys have no jobs and sign short term deals with low guarantees. Right now all these guys are still waiting to get overpaid. Honestly we got more out of camp cuts and waiver wire guys last year than we did FA.

Well, good. Glad we'll only have to put up with AJ and Gore on the Colts for two years....

As far as the Texans not being a contender this year, they came awfully close to playoffs last year. I expect them to do better this year. Maybe a quality QB could have made the difference last year and a quality QB would be one person. If the Mallet-in-the-Cleveland-game shows up for 75% of the games, I do believe we will contend....

Obviously, little quality at QB in FA this year - we picked up Hoyer - we'll see how that goes.

I am glad we are mostly staying out of the FA market to this point.

Hoyer and Rahim Moore, am I missing anybody? Moore is a nice add, IMO....

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

Let me put it this way, when is the last time a non-playoff team successfully used FA as a significant part of building a roster?

You're limiting this to non-playoff teams, as the Texans failed to make the playoffs with minutes remaining in the 4th quarter of the final regular season game last year, ok. And I'm sure your definition of 'success' will get far more restrictive after reading this post. So how about I limit it further to players other non-playoff teams have acquired from just the Texans in recent years to significantly build a roster?

Here's three off the top of my head: Mario Williams (Bills), Glover Quin (Lions), Connor Barwin (Eagles).

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

The kind of smart bargain shopping you guys are talking about happens after the FA push is done and veterans spend a few weeks with no contract and no bidder.

You're talking as if we want them to rush out and sign Shorts to some lucrative, cap-strapping deal. That's not the case at all, and I think it's pretty clear we both said only if he's cheap. If not him, then someone. I just don't think it's wise to go into the season hoping to get an answer on the QB situation (hopefully, Mallett) with KMart/DJ/Bonner as a starter. We already know they're below average. And that doesn't even factor in the unknown we have at the other outside WR position. Totally agree they should draft a WR somewhere along the line, though. Maybe two.

[popanot]

Here are a few more guys I'd look at or inquire about for the slot: Chris Givens, Quinton Patton, Denarius Moore (FA). They'd currently have to give up a pick for either Givens or Patton, but it wouldn't bother me at all giving up that condition pick from the Jets for one of those guys. Vincent Brown might be worth a look on an extremely cheap 1-yr prove it deal.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

You're talking as if we want them to rush out and sign Shorts to some lucrative, cap-strapping deal. That's not the case at all, and I think it's pretty clear we both said only if he's cheap. If not him, then someone. I just don't think it's wise to go into the season hoping to get an answer on the QB situation (hopefully, Mallett) with KMart/DJ/Bonner as a starter. We already know they're below average. And that doesn't even factor in the unknown we have at the other outside WR position. Totally agree they should draft a WR somewhere along the line, though. Maybe two.

Draft a guy. Sign a guy in a few weeks when there is no bidding or competition. Draft another guy. Let what we have fight it out in camp. But Cecil Shorts on a 1st week of FA deal is not something I want any part of.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

But Cecil Shorts on a 1st week of FA deal is not something I want any part of.

I doubt anyone is arguing with you on this, as well as your point that UFA is a fools' crapshoot.

And aside from the Jets (who are a probable cluster***k thanks in part I'm sure to hiring a former Texans front office exec), 31 other teams agree with you that Shorts is not a 1st week of FA-type player either. I'll agree with that too... I just think that he tops the list of FA options for upgrading that slot position.

I'm all for drafting a WR, particularly a slot WR, with a non-1st round pick/likely middle round pick in the draft, a similar spot from which Shorts was taken four years ago. But that wouldn't preclude a team like the Texans from signing a vet. Mallett needs an upgrade from the undrafted 4th year player in Damaris Johnson who didn't really seem all that much better than Keyshawn Martin. Surprised the team gave Damaris what they did.


BTW - I have done little to none in terms of moderating these offseason threads. If y'all are cool with keeping this catch-all thread, then we'll just keep adding to it.

[Arky]

Interesting part of the Cordarrelle Patterson inquiry was that he's also a kickoff return guy and a pretty good one. Got a feeling the Texans are making more of an effort to upgrade the return game....

re: Shorts, gotta say he always looks great when the Jags play the Texans....