Texans Hire Bill O'Brien as Head Coach

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

New O'Brien video out - about 3 mins.

Talks about the QB selections in the draft. Says they don't know yet, what they will do.

So, I guess that is the one big remaining question - Do they go Bortles (or Teddy or Johnny) @ 1.1 or do they do Clowney @ 1.1 then Garoppolo (or another QB) @ 2.1?

So if the Texans use their 1.1 on a non-QB, are you confidant that it's going to be Clowney ?

[HPF Bob]

Clowney is the only non-QB in this draft that is worth a 1-1. If what you want is Barr, Mack, Matthews, Watkins, etc, you should trade down and take them. I'd be thrilled to do a trade down into the 4-6 range with receiving extra draft picks. STL and Oakland probably don't want another QB so if you trade down, likely one of the Big 3 QBs is still there along with some of the draft's top talent guys like Matthews or Watkins.

[chuck]

But in trying to trade down we're faced with the same old question, though. If we don't see any value at 1-1 then who the hell else will?

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

But in trying to trade down we're faced with the same old question, though. If we don't see any value at 1-1 then who the hell else will?

People keep saying it's a "deep" draft so you would think (I do) there's at least one player that is worth the 1.1 pick. All it takes is one team to have the itch, to see future greatness in a player and go for it (trade up)...

Trading down but staying in the top 10 would probably make taking a QB more.... palatable.... Seems to me, QB's taken in round 1 seem to have the highest bust rate. I don't have any stats or anything but it just seems that way. By trading down, at least one could avoid having a 1.1 (QB) bust. Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater..... there are no guarantees. One or more could be the next Jamarcus Russel/Gabbert/Leaf, etc. Other positions aren't guaranteed either but I think you have a better chance at a solid player at minimum... I think Mack, Clowney, Mathews - all meet this minimum requirement.

I only mentioned Clowney because his name is usually the one that comes up, i.e. soup-of-the-day. Should have included "or other non-QB".....

So, to rephrase, I guess there are 3 choices:

1. Draft a QB at 1.1

2. Draft a non-QB at 1.1

3. Trade down and pick whoever you want.

[HPF Bob]

This probably deserves a different thread (hint) But let's look at potential trading partners for 1-1.

2. Rams. QB need? 45% (Are they sick of Bradford yet?) Coach: Jeff Fisher. Not really a trade down candidate because we are just talking one spot.

3. Jaguars. QB need? 85%. Most likely they will take the QB we don't and will try to bedevil us with him for the next decade. Not really a trade down option here since they are within our division and would not want to do us favors.

4. Browns. QB need? 90% Most likely, they will take a QB but they have plenty of needs and may draft BPA. They have a low first as well as this pick so they are the most ideal partner. We would get a top-4 player and I think we'd have somebody we'd really like if we drafted 4th.

5. Raiders. QB need? Well, they just traded for Schaub so your guess is as good as mine. Might lust for Clowney or Watkins. Would still be a good draft slot for Houston but would need probably their 1st, 2nd and 3rd to do this deal.

6. Falcons. QB need? 10% Definitely lusting for Clowney. Could feel he is worth 1st, 2nd and 3rd to move up for him. Sixth spot isn't great for Texans but could still work out, particularly if Matthews or Manzeil was their guy all along. The haul would really set up a spectacular draft for us though.

I doubt the Texans would agree to trade further down than this unless the Bucs, Bills or Vikings made them an unbelievable offer. So that's your trade down options. The Browns and Raiders are batshit crazy so they could want a trade-up badly. The Falcons see themselves as still a playoff team and could view Clowney as the pass-rush piece they need to bounce back.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

This probably deserves a different thread (hint) But let's look at potential trading partners for 1-1.

2. Rams. QB need? 45% (Are they sick of Bradford yet?) Coach: Jeff Fisher. Not really a trade down candidate because we are just talking one spot.

3. Jaguars. QB need? 85%. Most likely they will take the QB we don't and will try to bedevil us with him for the next decade. Not really a trade down option here since they are within our division and would not want to do us favors.

4. Browns. QB need? 90% Most likely, they will take a QB but they have plenty of needs and may draft BPA. They have a low first as well as this pick so they are the most ideal partner. We would get a top-4 player and I think we'd have somebody we'd really like if we drafted 4th.

5. Raiders. QB need? Well, they just traded for Schaub so your guess is as good as mine. Might lust for Clowney or Watkins. Would still be a good draft slot for Houston but would need probably their 1st, 2nd and 3rd to do this deal.

6. Falcons. QB need? 10% Definitely lusting for Clowney. Could feel he is worth 1st, 2nd and 3rd to move up for him. Sixth spot isn't great for Texans but could still work out, particularly if Matthews or Manzeil was their guy all along. The haul would really set up a spectacular draft for us though.

I doubt the Texans would agree to trade further down than this unless the Bucs, Bills or Vikings made them an unbelievable offer. So that's your trade down options. The Browns and Raiders are batshit crazy so they could want a trade-up badly. The Falcons see themselves as still a playoff team and could view Clowney as the pass-rush piece they need to bounce back.

I want the Texans to draft Clowney, but if I didn't and since we've already have our franchise LT, I'd be fine with them trading their 1.1 to TB for ONLY their first and second round picks. Some may think that's not enough for the 1.1,
but I'd rather have the 1.7 & 2.7 (assuming don't want Clowney). JMO.

[chuck]

I would also trade out of 1-1 for what might be considered a non-ideal return like, as nunu suggests, a lowish second this year. My thinking is the Texans have many needs and their hit-miss ratio in the draft is not exactly world-beating.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Clowney is the only non-QB in this draft that is worth a 1-1. If what you want is Barr, Mack, Matthews, Watkins, etc, you should trade down and take them. I'd be thrilled to do a trade down into the 4-6 range with receiving extra draft picks. STL and Oakland probably don't want another QB so if you trade down, likely one of the Big 3 QBs is still there along with some of the draft's top talent guys like Matthews or Watkins.

That's your opinion, quite a few "analytics" are now saying that OT Greg Robinson is right there with Clowney but who's to know ? But with the new CBA, trading out of the 1.1 is not as far fetched as it might seem, even in a Draft that is without one of those "franchise QBs" like Andrew Luck or RG3. The team with the 1.1 just can't expect that much for their top pick.