Let's Talk QBs in the 2014 Draft

[Keith]

The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.

Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.

I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Keith

The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.

Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.

I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.

Totally agree with this. He wouldn't be my pick at 1.1. I think he gets consideration, though.

Note: Bortles looking good and looking bad at times. Exactly what some of the scouting reports say about him.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.

Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.

I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.

Plenty of guys in the NFL make "magic" plays consistently. Rothleisberger has made a career out of it. Rodgers just took his team to the playoffs on a magic play, and he does it regularly. Andrew Luck is getting annoyingly good at it too.

The big difference from the college to NFL is that in the NFL, 90% of those magic plays involve a QB escaping or staying alive in the pocket, and then completing a pass downfield. They rarely involve a QB escaping and then running. I have no idea which best describes Manziel as I've watched less than 2 games worth of him combined (never more than a quarter or so at a time).

The other difference is you cannot build an NFL offense on off-schedule plays. You have to be good enough on the normal plays (just like you are saying Keith), or it won't matter how good you are on the special plays. That was obviously Keenum's problem. He made the off schedule plays but couldn't make the normal ones that keep an NFL offense moving while you wait for big plays.

[Keith]

Bortles is meh (at least as a 1.1 consideration). He looks like he'll be overdrafted in the little bit I've seen of him now if he goes early in the 1st. His body type is WOW, but his game (and maybe his maturity?) needs more seasoning. I'd advise Bortles to play college one more season if he'd listen to me.

Put another way, if I was drafting now, I'd take Manziel over Bortles. In fact, put Manziel in Bortles' body, then we'd have something... as it stands though, if there is a QB to be taken in round 1, my vote today is on Teddy.

[Keith]

Here's a video of what Bill O'Brien wants in a quarterback.


1. They have to be able to throw the ball accurately. They don't have to be the greatest athletes in the world.
2. They have to be able to make good decisions. You can judge that off the field.
3. They have to be intelligent, with a great football IQ.

[HPF Bob]

Great find. As a subset to #3, they have to be able to read the blitz. I'm not sure Keenum was up to speed in that regard. I don't know if any of the QBs coming out of college this year are particularly gifted at this but it might be a big issue regarding their final draft order.

[nunusguy]

Manziel was at his entertaining best the other night in ATL with another top notch Houdini performance, but I just don't see him taking that act to the NFL.
In the big boys league Goodell is protecting those QBs in the pocket just as a pro-lifer protects the baby in the womb, but let them wander outside the tackle box, especially if they head for the other side of the los with an intent to run the ball in earnest and the DBs and LBs still get to lay the wood to the hapless signal-callers. So ask the Packers and Aaron Rogers how that strategy is working out ? That leaves us with Johnny Football's arm, which is just mediocre when you get right down to it.

[Keith]

MMQB article today on Teddy:

“Wait until [teams] talk to him and get him up on the blackboard,” said an NFL personnel executive who has known Bridgewater since ninth grade. “He lives and breathes football. Always has. Teams are going to fall in love with him.” ...

Bridgewater graduated high school early and enrolled at Louisville in the spring to position himself to win the starting job as a freshman. ...

“Most of these kids in college, the coordinator calls it from the press box and then there’s a signal system once the defense declares. The quarterback never gets developed, never gets taught. Teddy’s been taught from day one that I want him to be the coordinator at the line of scrimmage because he can be far better than me. And he can put the ball wherever he thinks is right.” ...

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/02/teddy-...014-nfl-draft/

Sounds like a lock for what O'Brien is looking for in at QB.

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Great find. As a subset to #3, they have to be able to read the blitz. I'm not sure Keenum was up to speed in that regard. I don't know if any of the QBs coming out of college this year are particularly gifted at this but it might be a big issue regarding their final draft order.

So that is why Rogers and Rothlesberger got sacked more than any other QB's?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

So that is why Rogers and Rothlesberger got sacked more than any other QB's?

They hold onto the ball. Rodgers in particular has been accused of taking sacks to avoid throwing it away to protect his completion percentage. When you think you can escape and make a play you don't throw it away when you should. Mike Vick has always been sacked more per dropback than anyone (and fumbled way more). If the NFL counted sacks as negative rushing yards like they should, we would have a better idea of what running QBs actually contribute.

[nunusguy]

Just watched most of my recording of the UCF-Baylor bowl game and I've got some advise for Blake Bortles - boy, better stay in college a bit longer and maybe develope some accuracy throwing the pigskin.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Keith

Put another way, if I was drafting now, I'd take Manziel over Bortles. In fact, put Manziel in Bortles' body, then we'd have something... as it stands though, if there is a QB to be taken in round 1, my vote today is on Teddy.

Do we really want the "Miley" Manziel act in Reliant ? That's too much drama for me and not enough NFL calibre talent. And from what I saw of Bortles the other night, guy can't hit the broad side of a barn from 5-10 yards half the time he throws the ball. If we just have to take a QB with the top pick, I'd also prefer Teddy Texan. But I don't want to go that way with our first overall pick.