Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.

That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss?

Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for.

Or look at Russel Wilson in the game currently airing. They talked about how he loved being blitzed. And then he beat an 8 man all out blitz with a downfield throw that came about 1 second after the snap. He didn't wait for the guy to be open (or even know if he was). He made the correct pre-snap read and trusted it. Keenum did this once in the Jacksonville game and had a nice conversion because of it. But in general, he is extremely slow to make decisions with the ball. The timing throws come out late, and against the blitz he thinks escape first rather than get the ball out.

It is unfair to compare Keenum to Brady and Manning, but Wilson is younger than Keenum. Keenum is already 25 years old (almost 26). This is not a fresh faced rookie. He had 6 years at UH and now almost 2 full years in this system. He is behind only in terms of NFL reps. I would not expect the same sort of learning curve as with a 22 year old rookie who had 6 starts.

[Arky]

Roger Staubach had Navy commitments (or something like that) and didn't make it to the NFL until age 27. He didn't get cranked up till age 29 and then had a nice run all the way till age 37. Age schmage.... not really worth nit-picking over. Bigger factors are can he play, can he pass worth a damn, does he show the ability to pick up on things fairly quick? If he (Keenum) answers these with "yeses" by the end of the year, got to keep him around.

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Ya know, Andrew Luck is in his second year and not exactly setting the world on fire......Statistically, he's Joe Average..... The "next Peyton Manning" has more work to do.... However, I think most people agree that watching him play, one can see he has a very good "toolkit"....

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Drafting a QB is fine by me but just be prepared to go through the same thing (nit picking, pros and cons, lovers/haters etc.) we are going through with Keenum when he arrives. Someone in another forum I read made the point that a top 5 drafted QB is too big of an investment to leave sitting on the bench..... This QB will more or less be handed the keys sooner rather than later.....

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With Keenum, I see a Texas boy that could probably tell you a few stories about those Friday Night Lights (and Saturday Night Lights for that matter). Rightly or wrongly, I (still) see some good things lurking..... I (still) see upside.... MNF announcers speaking about Wilson and Brees made it a point to say a QB's height doesn't mean what it used to. Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, Keenum is going to be given a mostly 10 game audition. For an undrafted QB and despite the circumstances, that's all one can ask for......

[HPF Bob]

I see good and bad with Keenum and the bad is mostly fixable with a full camp of practicing with the regulars instead of getting the table scrap reps. Kubiak says Keenum is a great film study and picks up knowledge rather fast.

Right now, he's looking downfield while Schaub was looking to dump pass. If there are shorter routes or designed screens, he isn't finding them.

The New England game was actually the first one for which I could fairly evaluate Keenum because the OL gave him time to throw and the running game worked well enough that the Patriots had to respect it, making play action more effective.

He's only had three picks so far and two of them were because he threw while getting hit. But he's not really accurate and his receivers don't look comfortable trying to catch him. That comes with timing and timing comes from a full off-season throwing hundreds of passes to the receivers where they run the exact same route to the exact same spot with the ball arriving at the exact proper time. You can't really get that down during the regular season. You have to work at that all off-season.

I think there's about a 40% chance of Keenum being a solid NFL quarterback if he's allowed to develop but I'm doubting he'll get that chance in Houston.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

Ya know, Andrew Luck is in his second year and not exactly setting the world on fire......Statistically, he's Joe Average..... The "next Peyton Manning" has more work to do.... However, I think most people agree that watching him play, one can see he has a very good "toolkit"....

I'd sure like to have Luck on the Texans, but I honestly think I'd rather have Wilson even at the same money as Luck. A couple weeks ago in the Seahawks game vs St Louis, Wilson made a play that was utterly amazing. He flipped a practically perfect pass into the EZ for a TD while on a dead sprint from about 30 yards out. Underhanded ! The kid is truly an amazing athletic talent and has all of the intangibles to go along with it !

[Nconroe]

If we lose Thursday do we take a look at TJ Yates?

[chuck]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

If we lose Thursday do we take a look at TJ Yates?

See if he can kick? Sure, why not?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

If we lose Thursday do we take a look at TJ Yates?

What would you be looking at him for?

[Keith]

Another view from the outside on Keenum's potential (part of an article on 'mystery QBs' like McGloin and Tolzien for comparison).

To simplify final evaluations, I modified the Bang-Marry-Kill holistic scoring rubric (the most influential evaluative tool of the 21st century) into the Backup-Maybe-KO system. Backup means that he has proven that he can be a second-string NFL quarterback for a good team; that's a promotion for many of these guys. Maybe means he could still develop into a starter. KO means please, please, please get this guy an offensive coordinator job at some FCS college before we are forced to watch him throw again.
...

Summary: Keenum is a "slow clock" quarterback whose best and worst decisions occur late in the play, when pass routes have developed and the pocket is collapsing. For every downfield throw on the run or rollout bomb to Andre Johnson, there are several plays where Keenum takes a sack, gets hurried, or delivers a throw that should have arrived a split-second sooner.

The Texans' play-action style suits Keenum because it is full of seven-step drops, rollouts and slow-developing pass routes. It is not clear whether that will be the Texans offensive style next year, or how well Keenum would adapt to more of a read-plant-throw system (though he put up big numbers in a quick-trigger system in college). Like many small "pesky pepperpot" quarterbacks, Keenum can be effective in short doses, but low completion rates (54.2 percent) and waning big-play capability in recent games may be signs that the league is figuring him out.

Decision: Maybe. Keenum can definitely stick as a 10-year backup, but there may be more to him than that. He does enough well, and has enough upside, to merit starter consideration.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64365140/

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Another view from the outside on Keenum's potential (part of an article on 'mystery QBs' like McGloin and Tolzien for comparison).


http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64365140/

Very good. That's pretty much the way I see it. If Keenum has a strong adaption gene, he can be a starter.

And Nick Foles is an alien. How else do you explain a QB that doesn't have bad games?