Official Texans @ Ravens Game Thread, 9/22/2013

[Arky]

The Texans (2-0) will trot off to Baltimore this Sunday for an early game with the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens (1-1). The Ravens lost in Week 1 to Denver 49-27 but picked up their first win last week defeating Cleveland 14-6.

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon Sunday

Announcers = Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf

The line = Texans by 2.5

[HPF Bob]

I'm still stunned the Texans are favorites here. After the way Houston has played the last two weeks, do they think playing a tougher team on the road is going to result in a win?

IF AJ is out and Rice plays, the Texans will be at a further disadvantage.

Still, this isn't Ray-Ray's Ravens. It isn't Ed Reed's Ravens (say, Ed, how about sharing with us some of their defensive signals?). It's Haloti Ngata's Ravens. It's Terrell Thuggs' Ravens. They aren't as good as last year.

[Arky]

Ya, I pegged the Ravens to go about 8-8 this year. Flacco just became very wealthy and so many times I've seen a "star" sign a big 'ol contract and then not play well the first year in...

Ravens have new faces everywhere and I think they're still in gel mode. The Texans really should beat the Ravens but a few bad bounces and anything can happen.

Still waiting for the Texan's secondary to get their first INT..... Not enough turnovers coming out of the defense so far. Cushings' INT vs. San Diego is the lone take-away so far....

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I'm still stunned the Texans are favorites here. After the way Houston has played the last two weeks, do they think playing a tougher team on the road is going to result in a win?

IF AJ is out and Rice plays, the Texans will be at a further disadvantage.

Still, this isn't Ray-Ray's Ravens. It isn't Ed Reed's Ravens (say, Ed, how about sharing with us some of their defensive signals?). It's Haloti Ngata's Ravens. It's Terrell Thuggs' Ravens. They aren't as good as last year.

Even without Battle Red Glasses on, I'm not stunned. Two weeks into the season, and the Ratbirds don't look like they will even make the playoffs. Granted, they'll get on a run later, and I'm assuming will catch a wild card at the end, but right now, they aren't that impressive.

The loss of Boldin and Pitta are killing them. Now Rice goes down and his gimpy? I'm thinking double digits (yes, I just put my glasses on.....)

[Arky]

Eeesh, Walter of Walterfootball.com like the Ravens so much that he made it his September Pick of the Month... Some fair reasoning but I hope he's wrong....

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Ravens for the following reasons:

1. This spread makes absolutely zero sense. Texans -2.5 at Ravens would translate to Texans -8.5 at home versus Ravens. Houston was -8 over Tennessee, so this is saying that the Titans are a half point better than Baltimore. What?

2. That brings me to the misconception the public has of these two teams. Average bettors think the Ravens are garbage because they can't score, but as noted above, that's simply not true. Baltimore put together some quality drives against a tough Cleveland defense last week. In the opener, the Ravens struggled because Michael Oher suffered an injury, and the coaching staff couldn't adjust for a fifth-round rookie tackle blocking Shaun Phillips. Baltimore has a great defense and a solid running attack, even if Rice is out.

Meanwhile, the Texans could very easily be 0-2. They needed a crazy comeback and help from the officials to beat the Chargers. They then were trailing in the second half at home against the Titans. Why are they road favorites against a decent team?

I have Houston and Baltimore Nos. 7 and 11 in my NFL Power Rankings. The Texans are slightly better, so my calculated line would normally be maybe Ravens -2. So, why is it -3.5? Read on...

3. The Texans just won in overtime. Home teams that prevail in an extra session and then have to travel usually struggle in terms of covering.

4. The Ravens have a pretty strong homefield advantage. They're a ridiculous 24-3 as hosts since 2010, with only the Packers (25-3) maintaining a better record in that span. Two of the three defeats have been to the rival Steelers, who know how to play in Baltimore, while the other was to Peyton Manning last year. Last time I checked, Matt Schaub was no Peyton Manning.

5. This is a big revenge game. Houston beat Baltimore last year, 43-13. Do you think a prideful team like the Ravens will let something like that go? The Texans were obviously not 30 points better than Baltimore last year, so what happened? Well, that was the first game in which Ray Lewis was out. Suggs happened to return from an Achilles that contest, but he wasn't himself quite yet. The Ravens were simply out of sorts, while Houston was out for blood after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs the year before. Well, it's the Ravens' turn for vengeance.

6. While the Ravens will be hyped up to get a victory here, the Texans don't really need this game. They're 2-0 right now. Following this contest, they have to deal with the 49ers and Seahawks. Those are non-conference foes, but they're perceived to be the top teams in the NFL (perhaps aside from Denver). Houston may have one eye on those two tilts.

7. Home underdogs seem to be the way to go this season. It's a small sample size, but thus far, they're 6-3 against the spread.

8. There's a great trend that supports the Ravens: Home underdogs who will be road favorites (Baltimore is at Buffalo next week) are fantastic bets in between Weeks 2-10: They were 61-26 against the spread since 1989 (that's how far back my records go).

[HPF Bob]

What the above review is talking about is the gambling side of it - the point spread. I actually agree. The Texans have done nothing to deserve a 2.5 favorite status against the Ravens on the road. But the Texans *could* win by one or two points and this reviewer would still "win" by picking the Ravens.

But I don't follow the idea that the Texans are looking past last year's SB champions who could have a head-to-head tie-breaker over playoff seeding against them because they are looking ahead to two NFC opponents. I was ready to agree up to that talking point, which is stupid.

In the NFL, you play one week at a time. The Texans may lead the AFC South but their biggest rival just added a stud RB so do you think the Texans are going to relax?

The Ravens, I'm sure, feel just as comfortable that their biggest rival is a game behind them and they can tell themselves their one loss was against the probable "class" of the conference that needed to get revenge for last year's playoff blunder.

While the Texans stomped the Ravens at home last year, I'll bet many of them remember their last trip to Baltimore (playoffs '11) and feel they still have something to prove. At least I hope so.

But, in reality, the game boils down to match-ups which is why it matters if Duane Brown, Andre Johnson and Ed Reed are healthy. Can Myers hold down Ngata? Can our RG/RT keep out Thuggs? Will our FG kicker find himself in time or keep adding to his own pressure?

The Ravens also have injury issues to key players and will their guys be ready or will their backups? There are also some former Texans (Jones, Leach) who are probably going to be pumped for this game.

Gamblers try to look for numerical trends to base their decisions. That's what this review is basing their decision on. I'm sure by the same logic, they were betting on the Eagles to cover last night because almost everything they are saying about the Ravens could have been said about the Eagles (home game, need the win, fired up to play ex-coach, more explosive offense, etc.) and most of what they are saying about the Texans applied to Chiefs (on the road, lucky to be 2-0, etc.). EDIT: BTW, Philly was -3 to -3.5 favorite last night.

I just hope it doesn't come down to field goals.

[barrett]

People get caught up a ton with what the point spread should be and the 3 points for the home team, but Vegas doesn't do anything on accident. If the "extra" points convince people to bet on the Ravens when it really should have been a pick em', than the only way Vega loses is a 1 or 2 point Ravens win. And since anything under a FG is really a pick em already, all those 2.5 points do is get people to put money on Baltimore.

I would predict Houston to win so I would also predict Houston to win by 2.5.

And I agree with Bob it is stupid to think the Texans are looking past this game.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

And I agree with Bob it is stupid to think the Texans are looking past this game.

Texans really have a bit of a rivalry with the Ravens at this point, they are the defending SB champs, and most important of all they and not the Seahawks or 49ers are in the AFC. All of these things point to the Texans viewing this as a bigger game for tfhe team than the following 2 weeks.
But with it looking more and more likely that Duane Brown doesn't play Sunday, I'm not feeling the least bit confidant about this game with Newt & Harris facing Dumervil & Suggs.

[Arky]

Picking the correct winner against the spread (ATS) is a very tough thing to do. It is even hard to maintain a 2:1 ratio (67% correct) picking straight up (SU) as those entered in the pickem contests will verify (It blows my mind how good some of the people in the ESPN pickem contests are. Some of these guys should go straight to Vegas). Picking against the spread is just that much tougher. A lot of smart men can be made to look silly... A monkey can get it right at least 50% of the time, right?

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But I don't follow the idea that the Texans are looking past last year's SB champions who could have a head-to-head tie-breaker over playoff seeding against them because they are looking ahead to two NFC opponents. I was ready to agree up to that talking point, which is stupid.

I wouldn't call it stupid. Maybe faulty logic would be better. One thing I've learned is I want to have a really good reason why I made my pick so in case it loses, I can still feel somewhat justified about the pick. Quirky things happen sometimes (fumbles, INT's, a DB that knocks down a hail Mary pass straight into the hands of the wrong team). Picking the Chargers because they got cool looking uniforms is not a really good reason.

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Gamblers try to look for numerical trends to base their decisions. That's what this review is basing their decision on. I'm sure by the same logic, they were betting on the Eagles to cover last night because almost everything they are saying about the Ravens could have been said about the Eagles (home game, need the win, fired up to play ex-coach, more explosive offense, etc.) and most of what they are saying about the Texans applied to Chiefs (on the road, lucky to be 2-0, etc.). EDIT: BTW, Philly was -3 to -3.5 favorite last night.

I just hope it doesn't come down to field goals.

Actually, Walt had the Chiefs last night (see first game at the link).

There are some that rely heavily on trend data. Some of this data can get quite obscure (home team coming off a road loss in a Monday night game in the month of October). Most use some combination of trend data and logic, team "hotness", injuries, a feel for team psychology, Ouija board (j/k), etc. You've heard the expression "past performance is no indication of future performance"? That's both true and false in the world of picking ATS.

Though Walt has been slumping the last couple of years, he had a nice run before that. He's not off to a good start this year but what one can't accuse him of, is not doing his homework.....

That said, I hope he's wrong but I would not be shocked if the Ravens won. If the Texans win by 3 or better, at least Walt has some pretty good reasons for picking the way he did.

[HPF Bob]

Trending well on the injury front: Andre Johnson has been cleared and will play.

Ray Rice and DL Chris Canty are both listed as doubtful. If Rice cannot go, his backup is the underrated Bernard Pierce but I'd rather see Pierce than Rice.

[WMH]

D Brown is officially out. Did not make the trip.

Suggs and Dumervil vs. Harris and Newton.

3 steps, boots, screens and draws a plenty.

[WMH]

@McClain_on_NFL: Ed Reed is starting against the Ravens.

@MarkBermanFox26: Texans inactives: QB Case Keenum, WR Lestar Jean, OLB Sam Montgomery, OT Duane Brown, ILB Justin Tuggle, DE Tim Jamison, G Cody White

[Arky]

Ravens win the toss and defer. Texans to receive. Martin brings the kickoff back to about the Texan 22.

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Screen to OD loses 2. 2nd and 12 coming up.

Foster up the gut for about 8. 3rd and 4 coming up.

Pass to OD in the flat good for 5 and the 1st down.

Screen to Tate goes to the Texan 40. 2nd and 4 coming up.

False start Texans -5. 2nd and 9 coming up.

Tate gets 4 back. Makes it 3rd and 5.

Pass to AJ goes to near midfield, 1st down.

Foster for 4.

Deep pass to Hopkins too long. Flags down.... Illegal contact on Ravens +5, auto 1st down. Ball at the Raven 42.

Pass to OD over the middle gets about 12.

Tate for 1. 2nd and 9 coming up. Cody (Ravens) down on the play. Injury timeout.

[Arky]

Tate for about 5. Ball at the Raven 23. 3rd and 4 coming up.

Pass to OD off the mark, inc. Texans have to go for the FG.

Bullock on for the 41-yarder. Flags down. Illegal substitution on Ravens, +5 gives the Texans a 1st down.

Foster for 10. Ball at the Raven 8. 1st and goal.

Foster for no gain or loss of 1.

Oy, Schaub's pass off the mark, inc. Makes it 3rd and goal from the 9.

Pass to OD broken up, inc. Texans to go for the FG.

Bullock is good on the 27-yard FG.

Texans 3, Ravens 0

7:06 left in the 1st quarter.

[Arky]

Ravens bring the ensuing kickoff back to their 17. Flags down, holding on Ravens. Places the ball at the Raven 7.

------------------------------------

Pierce gets 4. 2nd and 6 coming up.

Pierce for 3.

Pass to Brown over the middle goes inc. Brings up 4th and 3 and the Ravens will punt.

Punt goes out of bounds at the Texan 40. Texans ball.

[Arky]

Schaub is pressured but throws it away. Flags down. Illegal formation Texans -5. Replay 1st down, 1st and 15 coming up.

Tate for 6.

Down goes Schaub. Flags down.... holding on Texans is declined. Makes it 3rd and 17 coming up.

Foster gets about 8. Texans have to punt on 4th and 9.

Goodness, Lechler's punt is downed at the Raven 1 yard line. Ravens ball.

[Warren]

You can't appreciate how good Lechler is until you watch him every week. He really is an impact player.

[Arky]

Leach for 1. 2nd and 9 coming up.

Pierce gets 2. 3rd and 7 coming up.

Flacco's pass too tall for Clark in the flat, inc. Ravens to punt.

Martin brings the punt back to the Raven 42 but flags down..... Late hit on Ravens +15. Places the ball at the Raven 29.

[Arky]

Foster for 2 or 3. Flag down... offsides Ravens +5. Makes it 1st and 5.

Foster goes left for about 8 yards. 1st and 10 at the Raven 17.

Foster up the gut for 4.

Foster slashes for 3. 3rd and 3 coming up.

Pass to AJ bobbled but caught and loses 1. Texans to go for the FG.

Bullock's 29-yarder is good.

Texans 6, Ravens 0

14:56 left in the half.

[Arky]

Ravens bring the ensuing kickoff back to their 24. Ravens ball.

-----------------------

Pass to Leach goes for 7.

Pierce for no gain. 3rd and 3 coming up.

Pass to Brown in the flat gets 2..... Flag down.... Unsportmanlike conduct on Joseph, 15 yards. Places the ball a the Raven 48.

Pass to Dixon goes for big gainer but comes back because of a facemask on the Ravens. Makes it 1st and 25.

Dumpoff pass to Pierce gets 2.

Pass to Smith in the flat gets 5. 3rd and 18 coming up.

Pass to Clark gets about 5. Flag - another facemask on the Ravens. Makes it 3rd and 33 coming up.

Flacco nearly sacked by Mercilus results in a fumble recovered by the Ravens. Ravens to punt.

Martin brings the punt back to about the Texan 28. Texans ball. 10:54 left in the half.