Do the Texans Need to Find a WR This Offseason, and If So, What kind?

[HPF Bob]

Not worried about replacing Andre yet since he seemed fine at the end of the season and we need to see what Posey and Martin can develop into. I don't mind adding another WR in the first three rounds if he can be special but I am thinking of someone to replace Walter (like a Ryan Swope) or someone to be a deep threat that stretches the secondary (like a Marquise Goodwin).

[nunusguy]

I agree with you about Andre, he did play his best ball at the the end of the season, atleast at the end of the RS. But at his age we'll be lucky if his physical decline is gradual because guys getting into their 30s often experience a dramatic and drastic falloff in physical skills in a very short time interval.
OK, now even though Posey made some plays in our losing effort in NE and was impressive, the injury he suffered in that game involves an Achilles tendon and unfortunately for him and the Texans his recovery is uncertain, certainly for the 2013 season ? That was a very serious injury he suffered.
And at the end of the year Martin is now looking pretty mediocre IMO. Same could be said of Lestar Jean notwithstanding that nice long catch-and-run
TD he had earlier.
Bottom line - we need help at WR. Now.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Not worried about replacing Andre yet since he seemed fine at the end of the season and we need to see what Posey and Martin can develop into. I don't mind adding another WR in the first three rounds if he can be special but I am thinking of someone to replace Walter (like a Ryan Swope) or someone to be a deep threat that stretches the secondary (like a Marquise Goodwin).

So you think Swope (6' 200 lb slot guy) is a Kevin Walter replacement (6'3", 220 lb blocking WR who plays primarily on the outside). What is it about Swope that reminds you of Walter or makes you think he can replace Walter? Swope is far more likely to replace Martin than Walter.

To replace Walter we need a guy that is a big, willing blocker, and who can play outside. Or basically Devier Posey, who took more and more reps from Walter towards the end of the season and showed to be a pretty physical guy on ST and blocking.

I don't see a huge need for a mid-round WR. We have a number of #3/4 WRs already (Walter, Posey, Jean, Martin). If we are drafting a WR it is because we need a real #2 WR (and possibly an eventual #1). I'm fine with us going WR in the first round if we think a guy can be a final piece, or not at all.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I agree with you about Andre, he did play his best ball at the the end of the season, atleast at the end of the RS. But at his age we'll be lucky if his physical decline is gradual because guys getting into their 30s often experience a dramatic and drastic falloff in physical skills in a very short time interval.
OK, now even though Posey made some plays in our losing effort in NE and was impressive, the injury he suffered in that game involves an Achilles tendon and unfortunately for him and the Texans his recovery is uncertain, certainly for the 2013 season ? That was a very serious injury he suffered.
And at the end of the year Martin is now looking pretty mediocre IMO. Same could be said of Lestar Jean notwithstanding that nice long catch-and-run
TD he had earlier.
Bottom line - we need help at WR. Now.

What WRs suffered a drastic fall-off and when did the fall-off occur? This is a serious question and I don't have an answer off the top of my head in either direction. It seems to me at first thought that most WRs stay effective into their mid to late 30s (Wayne was well ahead of AJ at miami and is still a stud). I know some big bodied guys have flamed out earlier (David Boston) and AJ is a big bodied type. But it seems that AJ has a game built on route running and precision that would age well.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

What WRs suffered a drastic fall-off and when did the fall-off occur? This is a serious question and I don't have an answer off the top of my head in either direction. It seems to me at first thought that most WRs stay effective into their mid to late 30s (Wayne was well ahead of AJ at miami and is still a stud). I know some big bodied guys have flamed out earlier (David Boston) and AJ is a big bodied type. But it seems that AJ has a game built on route running and precision that would age well.

Texans receiver Andre Johnson missed several games earlier this season with a right hamstring injury. He now has an injury to his left hamstring.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...string-injury/
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OH how 'bout one Andre Johnson in 2011, the year he turned 30 ? Inexplicable he had a very injury free season this past year IMS, but I'm fearful that the next couple seasons will be more like 2011 than 2012 ? Hey, but maybe we'll get lucky and he'll compete at or near the highest level until he's 35 ? But on the other hand smart NFL GMs & HCs like astute investors don't leave their fate to good luck, but instead hedge their bets, right ? In the case of Smith & Kubiak that means buying insurance/hedging in the Draft and/or FA.
But of course you are right about Reggie Wayne, he had a very good year and he's like 2 years Andre's senior.

[HPF Bob]

When I think of Walter, I am thinking of someone whose job is to run short patterns, sit in the zone and catch balls in traffic. ANY wide receiver in the NFL should block, particularly in this offense where Foster can break one off at any time. Swope has more speed than Walter but is a little smaller.

[Keith]

Split this off from the Defense vs. Elite QB thread since this had nothing to do with that topic.

As for WRs... I feel like pass rush wins championships, so I do NOT want to see the first round pick go to a WR. I know Andre is injury-prone, but the Texans have guys to catch the short and intermediate routes. They need a Torrey Smith-type to run those deep routes. Jacoby Jones did that... not that he was any good at it, but this offense needs a better deep threat.

And yes, any WR on this roster has to be able to block.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

It seems to me at first thought that most WRs stay effective into their mid to late 30s (Wayne was well ahead of AJ at miami and is still a stud).

Originally Posted by barrett

I know some big bodied guys have flamed out earlier (David Boston) and AJ is a big bodied type. But it seems that AJ has a game built on route running and precision that would age well.

Throughout history, wide receivers are able to maintain their performance for a longer amount of time than running backs. According to a thorough analysis by Fein (2009), “Receivers have the latest and longest peak of any skill position.” Some of skills necessary for a wide receiver to be at his peak on-field performance are similar to a running back, but the receiver can utilize other non-physical peak skills such as the ability to catch the ball, and the knowledge and ability to run exact and precise routes to maintain his performance over a longer period of time.
http://thesportdigest.com/archive/ar...player-get-old
When you're wrong you're wrong, and I think perhaps I was wrong and Barrett was right about the longevity and staying-power of a WR in the league, especially when compared to running backs, 2 positions which I always tended to lump in together on the subject of career-length in the NFL. So hopefully we've got several more seasons of top-level performance from the great Andre Johnson as our #1 WR, this article definitely tends to lend support to that hypothesis.

[HPF Bob]

It's not that hard to figure, folks. WRs take less hits than RBs. I don't even know why you would compare the two. Hits lead to injuries and the WRs are out away from the scrum getting hit by the smallest guys on the field so they are going to be at their physical peak longer. If anything, age and complacency slow them down and reduce their effectiveness.

I expect AJ to probably have two more peak years and then begin to decline. He might still be around in his late 30s but I would not, as a GM, count on that. Yes, he will need to be replaced but it will come about the same time Foster needs to be replaced.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

It's not that hard to figure, folks. WRs take less hits than RBs. I don't even know why you would compare the two. Hits lead to injuries and the WRs are out away from the scrum getting hit by the smallest guys on the field so they are going to be at their physical peak longer. If anything, age and complacency slow them down and reduce their effectiveness.

Speed is typically viewed as vitally important to be a successful wide receiver as well. Other physical attributes in an ideal wide receiver are quickness, and burst (acceleration). These three physical attributes will decline after the player passes his physical peak. Scouts Inc. (2006), however, ranks twoother attributes as most important when rating wide receivers. Scouts Inc. evaluates wide receivers initially on the following criteria,
“Hands: How is their overall concentration on easy and tough catches? Do they have soft hands? Do they body catch too often? Can they snatch the ball when thrown outside their frame?”, and “Patterns: Are their cuts sharp and crisp? Do they show good body control or do they look awkward?” These two vital attributes in a wide receiver can be maintained longer than the purely physical aspects, so wide receivers should be able to maintain their peak for a longer period of time.
http://thesportdigest.com/archive/ar...player-get-old
I compared the two positions because long-speed or pure sprinting speed, quickness, and burst/acceleration are highly valued qualities for both positions. And as this article goes on to state, there is a distinct diminution of those physical abilities when players pass their "physical peak", often defined as 30 years of age. So fortunately for the Andre Johnsons of the NFL, there are other skills they can fall back on that running-backs cannot that will sustain their effectiveness, even though their innate physical skills have most likely declined to a reduced level after entering their 30s. OK ?
Oh BTW, "hits" or amount of physical contact is irrelevant in the context of this discussion.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Oh BTW, "hits" or amount of physical contact is irrelevant in the context of this discussion.

Shelf life for a player is related to the amount of punishment the body takes. That translates into injuries and most injuries come from getting hit so hits are relevant. It all boils down to physics. A body of mass propelled at another body is going to cause the second body to absorb force which is going to, over time, affect that body's ability to perform effectively. That's the whole point of boxing.

In short, do you want a 300-pounder running full steam into you or a 220-pounder? RBs and QBs get hit by 300-pounders. WRs get hit by 220-pounders. Over time, it makes a difference.

[barrett]

Bob is definitely right that the punishment is less at WR than RB and that plays into it, but I don't think that is the main reason for the longer career window. QBs get punished with hits they can't protect themselves from (and by 300 lb guys like Bob pointed out), and yet QBs play longer than almost any position.

Some positions rely on raw athletic ability to a greater degree and those positions have dramatic performance declines. At WR a veteran can make up for declining speed with superior route running, rapoire with QB, and hands. That is why Wayne (and Rice, Carter, Tim Brown, and pretty much every quality WR of recent times) was able to perform well into their 30s. Even Randy Moss is contributing on a playoff team at his age and he isn't the type to take care of himself and condition/train.

Andre will slow down but not in a way that keeps him from getting the best of a DB on a deep in (his best route these days). Unless injuries derail him he should perform close to this year's standard for years.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

Bob is definitely right that the punishment is less at WR than RB and that plays into it, but I don't think that is the main reason for the longer career window.

Of course it's not, every position takes fewer hits, far fewer hits than the RB position does. Bob has of course offered up what's commonly known as a red herring.

Originally Posted by barrett

Andre will slow down but not in a way that keeps him from getting the best of a DB on a deep in (his best route these days). Unless injuries derail him he should perform close to this year's standard for years.

As impress athletically as the average NFL CB is, even say a 25-year-old NFL CB, chances are he's not as impressive athletically as a 31-year-old Andre Johnson. That's why Andre is a world-class athlete, because even at his age, on average he has a margin of athletic superiority over a younger competitor. But given the correlation between age and declining athleticism that margin always continues to recede, sometimes quickly, sometimes even at an exponential rate.

[Arky]

The Texan passing game as a whole was just a mess in the later stages of the year. Too many dropped balls from the dependable guys, poor pass protection and Schaub having probably his worst 6 game stretch of his career (playoffs included).

IMO, Devier Posey was looking terrific - looked like he belonged on an NFL field. Awesome TD catch against the Pats. Just really sad that he now has a major hurdle (injury) to overcome.

Keshawn Martin - I think the Texans thought he was going to be a DeSean Jackson type but he just didn't show me a whole lot. He did well on the end-arounds and OK on the punt returns - other times he looked like a too small, try-hard guy. Still, not giving up on him, yet.

Lestar Jean - 6 catches all year. Ummm, could we see more, please? Don't think it is his fault that the Texans/Schaub/Kubiak didn't target him more.

Kevin Walter - its popular to be down on him but I'm not there yet. I haven't seen enough film to conclude he "can't get separation" anymore. He has a history of running good routes and has good hands.

James Casey - Somes games he's a contributor, some games he's not. Seems like there were games where he had several catches in the first half and then nothing the rest of the game. Where'd he go? Averaged a tad over 2 catches/game.

Andre Johnson - no evaluation necessary.

"Underutilized" is common theme with many of our receivers. Hard to believe when Schaub is throwing for 4,000 yards but it is what it is.

"Do the Texans Need to Find a WR This Offseason, and If So, What kind?"

Well, it would be a waste to find a deep threat because apparently we don't throw deep anymore, in fact, we don't even it show it when it could help to loosen up a defense. So, any receiver receiver brought in would be something redundant of what we already have. Word coming out of Kirby according to McClain, is that they are happy with what they've got.