Why Can't the Defense Stop Elite QBs?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Of course, but these guys aren't posting the kind of #s they had against the Texans when they play other teams, even those with lesser defenses, week in and week out.

They are posting exactly those kinds of numbers. Brady scored 4 offensive TDs in less than a quarter against the 49ers last month. They might have the best defense in the last 5 years. Brady averaged 300 yards passing and had better than a 4:1 TD to INT ratio this year.

The NFL is designed for offenses to win and defenses to lose. You can mitigate the damage, but when is the last team to win a superbowl primarily with Defense? Probably the 1st Patriots superbowl and then they changed the rules and haven't stopped changing them since.

And our defense did very well against Manning and Luck. Manning had a career high for incompletions in a game and Luck barely had %50 completion. In the games we scored we won against those guys.

And since we didn't play Brees, that means the question is why can't our defense stop Brady and Rodgers, and the answer to that is a million dollar question.

[Keith]

I'll give you Manning and Brees' performances as being normal for them. Brees especially in 2011 was just in an amazing groove that season, and the Texans defense was just in its third game under Phillips.

Brady, Rodgers, and Luck though put up some of their best performances of 2012 against the Texans defense.

Brady threw for 4 TDs against the Texans in Dec (and 3 more on Sunday). He threw 4 TDs in a single game just one other time this season (that weird London game against the Rams). His passer rating in the December game was 125.4, 29 points higher than his season average. It was 115 on Sunday, 25 points higher than his career playoff average. You mention the 49er game... as if the Texans could hold the Pats to 10 points through the first three quarters. Perhaps the 49er defense took their foot off the gas late in the 3rd quarter up 31-3?

Rodgers threw for 6 TDs against the Texans in Dec. It was a career high. His passer rating of 133.8 was 29 points higher than his season average.

Andrew Luck had a 4:0 TD:INT ratio and passer ratings of 95.6 and 96.0 in his two games against the Texans, both numbers 20 points higher than his season average. Take away the two Texans games, and his TD:INT ratio was 19:18.

[popanot]

I think it's the combination of our front 4 not getting sufficient pressure (Barwin, Reed and Smith were MIA most of the year), and then throw in sub-par LB play (and especially if the blitzing LB/DB can't get to the QB either), it puts incredible pressure on the secondary and LBs to stay with their man. To top that off, our secondary was wreck the last 1/3 of the season.

When you're playing guys like Alexander, James, Ruud, gimp-Sharpton, Keo, Harris and Ball you better pray you're main pass rushers are playing at a semi-Pro Bowl level or the elite QB's are going to pick you apart. Of course, some of it is on the coaching staff too for not coming with better schemes, players and getting better play out of thier core guys (Barwin, Reed, Manning, etc.).

Rodgers' bad games this year were due to him being under incredible pressure. We couldn't get any on him and he killed us for it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

I'll give you Manning and Brees' performances as being normal for them. Brees especially in 2011 was just in an amazing groove that season, and the Texans defense was just in its third game under Phillips.

Brady, Rodgers, and Luck though put up some of their best performances of 2012 against the Texans defense.

Brady threw for 4 TDs against the Texans in Dec (and 3 more on Sunday). He threw 4 TDs in a single game just one other time this season (that weird London game against the Rams). His passer rating in the December game was 125.4, 29 points higher than his season average. It was 115 on Sunday, 25 points higher than his career playoff average. You mention the 49er game... as if the Texans could hold the Pats to 10 points through the first three quarters. Perhaps the 49er defense took their foot off the gas late in the 3rd quarter up 31-3?

Rodgers threw for 6 TDs against the Texans in Dec. It was a career high. His passer rating of 133.8 was 29 points higher than his season average.

Andrew Luck had a 4:0 TD:INT ratio and passer ratings of 95.6 and 96.0 in his two games against the Texans, both numbers 20 points higher than his season average. Take away the two Texans games, and his TD:INT ratio was 19:18.

In the Indy games, they scored 38 offensive points (not counting the KR TD). That is 19 points a game. That is less than we allowed on average and less than they scored on average. If either the offense or special teams is average in the 2nd game than our defense plays well enough to sweep them. Our defense against Luck was solid.

Rodgers and Brady killed us. They kill just about everyone. Specific to our defense, they are going to eat up man coverage unless they are under heavy pressure. We were not very good at rushing the QB this year. Barwin and Reed combined for 5.5 sacks and Mercilous had 6 in about %10 of the snaps they played. We need an edge pass rush or we will continue to struggle with the elite offenses.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

We were not very good at rushing the QB this year. Barwin and Reed combined for 5.5 sacks and Mercilous had 6 in about %10 of the snaps they played. We need an edge pass rush or we will continue to struggle with the elite offenses.

This is where I'm getting... if the Texans are going to take the step from playoff fodder to playoff champion, they need to evaluate where they need to see the sort of improvement where they can slow down Brady, Manning, etc.

If Barwin is gone (or at best no more effective than he was in 2012), and if Mercilus cannot improve his edge contain and run defense, then there's the argument there to go get the best pass rushing front 7 player they can find in the draft or free agency next year. Even if Barwin is back and Mercilus improves, Antonio Smith then isn't getting to the QB often enough. That need (DE and/or OLB) ought to trump taking an ILB in spite of how thin the Texans are at that position or really any other position. Seems crazy given how they've invested high picks in Reed and Mercilus lately, but apparently it isn't enough.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

This is where I'm getting... if the Texans are going to take the step from playoff fodder to playoff champion, they need to evaluate where they need to see the sort of improvement where they can slow down Brady, Manning, etc.

If Barwin is gone (or at best no more effective than he was in 2012), and if Mercilus cannot improve his edge contain and run defense, then there's the argument there to go get the best pass rushing front 7 player they can find in the draft or free agency next year. Even if Barwin is back and Mercilus improves, Antonio Smith then isn't getting to the QB often enough. That need (DE and/or OLB) ought to trump taking an ILB in spite of how thin the Texans are at that position or really any other position. Seems crazy given how they've invested high picks in Reed and Mercilus lately, but apparently it isn't enough.

I think if Mercilous plays more it will make a huge difference. Like I said, he had more sacks than the rest of the guys combined despite his limited playing time. Sure, he doesn't play the run as well as those guys, but Cushing's healthy return (fingers crossed), should allow us to get away with Mercilous and not miss the run defense from what is really a pass rushing spot (WOLB). An improvement at NT could also help offset Mercilous in the run game. But he gets to the QB and has to play more.

I also really hope Antonio Smith is back. I think he is a huge part of Watt's success, and he puts up fantastic 34 DE numbers in his own right.

I really think most of the defensive issues are tied to Cushing's absence and problems running down hill. He is the tough guy and emotional leader. Watt is phenomenal but kind of a goof ball (smarter Gronkowski). Cushing is the tackling machine that allows all of the front 7 to slant and stunt so much, he's one of our best pass rushers, he's our best LB in coverage by a mile (and the Pats killed us with RBs and TEs in the passing game), and he is a guy that strikes a little fear in the opposing team just from how violent he is.

But obviously if Barwin goes we need another 34 OLB pretty early in the draft. I would for sure look there before ILB just because of the relative values in our scheme. Plus I am ok with James/Dobbins/Mid Round rookie if Cushing is healthy.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by barrett

I also really hope Antonio Smith is back. I think he is a huge part of Watt's success, and he puts up fantastic 34 DE numbers in his own right.

Watt is spoiling the fans here, Smith's year was comparable to the year that Gary Walker had in 2002 and that got Gary to the Pro Bowl. Smith is not the problem.

We need an ILB who is a force to go along with Cushing, and we need better production from the OLBs. Sadly I have five positions that could be addressed with the 1st round pick: ILB, OLB, NT, WR or TE.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Watt is spoiling the fans here, Smith's year was comparable to the year that Gary Walker had in 2002 and that got Gary to the Pro Bowl. Smith is not the problem.

We need an ILB who is a force to go along with Cushing, and we need better production from the OLBs. Sadly I have five positions that could be addressed with the 1st round pick: ILB, OLB, NT, WR or TE.

I'd be ok with any of those 5. I had not considered TE, but if there was a great one available I would probably prefer that to a WR since we are more likely to effectively use a great TE. An ILB would have to be special and multitalented (a pass rush and coverage guy in addition to regular ILB skills).

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by painekiller

. Sadly I have five positions that could be addressed with the 1st round pick: ILB, OLB, NT, WR or TE.

Guys that fit these positions who might be available when we pick in the 1st:

ILB - Manti Te'o Notre Dame (who knows how far he will fall), Kevin Minter LSU
OLB - Alex Okafor Texas; Ezekiel Ansah BYU; Margus Hunt SMU
NT - Jesse Williams, Alabama; John Jenkins Georgia; Sharrif Floyd Florida; Kawann Short Purdue
WR - *Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee; Tavon Austin West Virginia; Robert Woods Southern California; DeAndre Hopkins Clemson; Terrance Williams Baylor; Justin Hunter Tennessee
TE - Zach Ertz Stanford; Tyler Eifert Notre Dame