How will the Colts Approach Week 17?

[kRocket]

We have shown poorly against the NFC opponents this year. Does anyone remember how the Broncos did against NFC opponents in the Superbowl of their hay days? Also, we have historically not done well with those big beefy nose tackles (Wolfolk) with our zone blocking schemes. Who would be the worst match-up for us if we make it to the Superbowl which is certainly not guaranteed since we will probably have to make past the Patriots.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by kRocket

Does anyone remember how the Broncos did against NFC opponents in the Superbowl of their hay days?

Made me think, on a related note, I went back to look at those late 90s Broncos (with Kubiak as OC) as a comparison, and found a familiar trend...

1996: Broncos at 12-1 finished 1-2. (lost divisonal round at home to JAX)
1997: Broncos at 11-2 finished 1-3. (won Super Bowl over GB)
1998: Broncos at 13-1 finished 1-2. (won Super Bowl over ATL)
2012: Texans at 11-1 are 1-2 in last 3 games.

Like the 2012 Texans, these Bronco teams jumped out to big winning records by early December, then let up on the gas.

What Kubiak has brought to Houston in other ways has been very comparable to those Bronco teams; this seems no different.

[barrett]

Keith that explains a lot. I posted earlier about how it is clear that Kubiak has taken his foot way off the gas and stopped doing all of the things that made our offense dangerous. We scored at will through that 5 day stretch of November when the defense temporarily collapsed, and then just shut it down. I thought Kubs was probably keeping most of the playbook in reserve (including all of the bootlegs), but this confirms it. He is once again falling back on the tried and true shanahan/denver days. When looking at your stats I can even see some of that last year, when we stumbled through Yates down the stretch and then played two of our best games all season (regardless of QB) in the destruction of Cincy and the defensive marvel in Baltimore.

With that said, I think Kubs could be an idiot here. It is one thing to take a deep breath down the stretch and gear up for the playoff unveiling when you have a veteran team led by John Elway (and the unshakable confidence that comes with being led by John Elway). I don't think Schaub/Kubs inspire the same unshakable confidence that Elway did. I think we run the real risk of our team's psyche being dented by the losses, especially if we give away home field and have to go into NE or Denver.

With that said, a win Sunday and we are perfectly positioned with a dream playoff path, mostly healthy, completely under the radar (with the best record in the conference and wins over 2 of the 3 division champs), and are uniquely setup to take NYG style "nobody believes in us" motivation while also being the home team.

I hope that I am wrong and Kubs is right and this team can flip a switch in the playoffs. I want to believe we have that kind of mental toughness and confidence, and next month I'll know.

[Keith]

Yep yep yep.

Here's something else... how about the theory that a team has to be "hot" going into the playoffs? Mostly bunk since 2006.

2011: Giants had to play the wildcard round after a 9-7 season, needing a 2-1 finish to get there. Not really applicable here since this was a largely experienced team returning, not much like the 2012 Texans.

2010: Packers were 10-6 and also had to play the wild card round. Went 2-2 down the stretch, not exactly lighting the world on fire.

2009: Saints, now this is a good one. They were 13-0 then lost their last three in a row.

2008: Steelers finished 12-4, finished 1-1.

2007: Giants 10-6, finishing 1-2, including that loss to the undefeated Patriots in the regular season finale.

2006: Colts were 12-4, but finished 2-3.

Now, from 2000-2005, those Super Bowl teams really did finish strong, at least following those two Bronco Super Bowl teams before them that didn't.

Bottom line, if the Texans win Sunday and close the season with a 2-2 stretch, it won't mean squat regarding their Super Bowl chances. In fact, if recent history is an indicator, it might not be such a bad thing at all to understand how to react to a little adversity. Since 2006, Super Bowl winners were a combined 8-12 down the stretch.

[Arky]

Good research, Keith and it kinda proves one of the truisms I mentioned earlier: teams that clinch early, usually let down....

I know you just checked for the Super Bowl winners, but every year (as everyone knows) there are 12 teams that clinch a playoff spot. Some only clinch in the last game of the year but catch a team that clinches in say, week 15 and chances are they aren't going to be sharp in Weeks 16 & 17. Raise your hand if you thought New England was going to pummel Jax last week..... Who thought SF was going to get hammered like they did by Seattle?

Of course, Denver (33-12 over Cle) and Green Bay (55-7 over Tenn) steamrolled right along which does say something to the contrary... doesn't work all the time.....but I wouldn't be afraid to pick both their opponents this week KC @ +16.5 and Minn @ +3.5, respectively...

And.... the Colts clinched last week....

[WMH]

Stepping off the gas is one thing, but lack of execution is another. Playcalling aside, the O-Line was manhandled vs. MN. Abused may be a better word. Its one thing to go vanilla, its another to flat out get beaten. That's what concerns me the most. Kubiak's playcalling has nothing to do with Schaub being erratic, missed tackles by the secondary, or the O-Line getting demolished.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by WMH

Stepping off the gas is one thing, but lack of execution is another. Playcalling aside, the O-Line was manhandled vs. MN. Abused may be a better word. Its one thing to go vanilla, its another to flat out get beaten. That's what concerns me the most. Kubiak's playcalling has nothing to do with Schaub being erratic, missed tackles by the secondary, or the O-Line getting demolished.

Actually the two are directly related. We have never had an offense that just mauled teams with the running game when they knew it was coming. We were an NFL rarity, a team who passed and ran. And each of the two made the other better. I remember the Raiders game last year when we lost Andre and couldn't run it at all and got beat. And that was with the best run game this franchise has ever had.

Without running the bootlegs and creating run/pass confusion for the defense, we cannot run the ball. Without running the ball we cannot pass the ball. We are not a power run team or a straight drop back team. If we don't play the way the team is designed to play, we are not very good and most of the pieces don't work when you try to use them in other ways (like Eric Winston in KC... or most of our guys the last 3 weeks).

Kubs is going into a shell and it hard to say whether it is by design or just by his nature. Either way it is killing us and we won't win as long as we play this way.

[Nconroe]

I suppose both teams will be trying their best to win.

Texans should have the edge so expecting we will win for first time in Indy.