Upcoming playoff game with Ravens 1/15/2012

[cadams]

i agree that i get the feeling that we could pull an upset (i woudl give us a 35-40% chance), though i still don't think i would pick the texans to win if you put a gun to my head.

the ravens do have a good run game and playoff experience, but flacco is inconsistent at best. he could just as easily lay an egg this weekend as he could go for 250 yards.

this really should be a good game, both teams have great defenses and great running games, and neither team has a top notch qb. in the first game we had schaub, but no andre. this time we have andre, but no schaub. if forced to chose i would say having andre is more important to a victory against the ravens than schaub. even with yates, they won't be able to load the box like they did with andre, and by forcing them to have another safety up top, it will not only help the running game, but also the screens and the underneath crossing paterns.

i say the winner will win by 6 points or less this week.

[nunusguy]

By their own admissions, both Arian and Andre have admitted they were tight early on the Cinci game, and their initial performances certainly showed that ?
But even though this is a road game, I kinda expect the Texans to play with intensity while not having the same kinda nerves they had in their playoff icebreaker in Reliant Saturday. The wildcard is gonna be Yates ? The Ravens D is probably drooling at this moment at that thought of facing such a novice.
Maybe TJ he can turn the tables on them ?

[Arky]

Wow, beat me to it. Here's what I wrote up:

The Texans head up to Baltimore to take on the heavily-favored Ravens this Sunday in an early Sunday game on CBS. The Texans lost the regular season game against the Ravens 29-14 in Week 6. Ray Lewis had a monster game that day with 12 tackles and a sack (prediction: CBS will show Lewis' pre-game pep-talk for the 1,673 time. Ya seen one Ray Lewis pre-game peptalk....) In that game, the Texans won the turnover battle 2-0 but couldn't take advantage of their opportunities. The Ravens had 2 TD's, kicked 5 field goals and had success with vertical passing. RB Ray Rice was 23/101 yds and caught 5 passes for 60 more. Their defense held RB Arian Foster to 15/49 yds rushing. Andre Johnson did not play that day but is expected to be ready to go this Sunday.

When Ray Rice struggles to get his yards, the Ravens can be beat. Baltimore's four losses came when Rice did not have a good day but all four losses were on the road. Baltimore went 8-0 at home in the regular season (eww). That said, the two teams are pretty even statistically across the board. The key to the game, IMO, is the Texan o-line. Not a time for a bad day. If they are truly an "elite" o-line, now's the time to show it. They have to protect QB TJ Yates and open up holes for the running backs.....

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), 12 noon, Sunday

Announcers = TBD (probably Greg Gumbel Dan Dierdorf since Nance/Simms work Saturday night)

Favorite = Ravens by 7.5 to 9

[HPF Bob]

Early weather forecast for Sunday:

Cold, cloudy, mid-30s, 10% chance of precip, wind under 10 MPH.

In other words, weather should not be a factor any more than it was for the game in Cincy.

On the field, I think the big key will be how to stop Ngata. Meyers will have his hands full and may require some help. But if he can open holes in the middle, that will make everything else a little easier for the offense. On defense, contain the TE. I think we'll be solid in every other area but other teams have gashed us with throws to the TE and that is a big part of Flacco's gameplan.

Rice and Foster should cancel each other out so it will come down to which team can move the ball through the air.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Rice and Foster should cancel each other out so it will come down to which team can move the ball through the air.

Not exactly our recipe for success.

[WMH]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/pos...laying-injured

Ravens safety Ed Reed has received criticism lately for not playing up to his usual high level.

"I had a stinger hurt me this year so bad in my right shoulder to where now it has affected my deltoid (muscle in the shoulder) and my scapula," Reed told the AFC North blog. "My shoulder has just been hanging on the last couple of weeks. You could see how it has affected me for the most part. I think I've missed one tackle for four games straight, one in each game."

Reed hasn't been listed on the injury report the past four weeks, so this is the first time that this is being revealed. While a nerve impingement has limited his ability to tackle for the past few years, he has struggled to make tackles more this season. That was evident when he missed a tackle in the regular-season finale on Bengals backup running back Bernard Scott that resulted in a touchdown.

This injury could have an impact in Sunday's divisional playoff game against Houston. Reed will need to help out in run support against the Texans, the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack in the regular season that led all playoff teams last weekend with 188 yards on the ground. But this injury could limit Reed's effectiveness.

[barrett]

I hate to say it, but I think this week is more about the Ravens than it is about what we do. They can look like the best team in the NFL when they throw the ball well and get Suggs after the QB. I may not have seen a team look better all year than they did in week 1 vs Pitt. But their loss to the Jags on MNF was about as bad as a playoff team played all year. And they are rarely inbetween.

I think we will run the ball well enough and play enough D to be close either way. But if Baltimore plays their best, I don't think we can win. If they don't and we can play with a lead, we may be playing next week.

[WMH]

I see three key positive changes for us over one glaring negative between this game and the week 6 matchup.

Postives
1) Dre
- Him being on the field will be a huge factor. Load the box, and Yates has shown he will chunk it deep to Dre. He has been hesistant to do it without him, but in the 2 games they have played together, Dre has 9 catches for 187.

2) Barwin/Reed swap spots
- Week 6 was the first game post Mario, and this game, Reed was plugged into the weak spot. This is reverse from where they are now, and seeing the production from Barwin over the last 10 weeks, this has worked out well for us.

3) Vickers
- As long as Yates doesn't have to throw him the ball, this is an ideal game for Vickers to earn his paycheck and then some. I have a feeling that he is going to be a huge factor in the run game.

Negative
1) Yates
- Can the kid keep it up? He wasn't asked to do too much in the Bengals game, but might need to drop back more than 20 times if we can't get the run game going. Does he sphincter up? He showed incredible poise (after the first 2 drives), but will going on the road, in the playoffs, prove too much for him?