The upcoming Falcons game, 12/4/2011

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

According to an ESPN crawl, the Falcons will have two CBs who are doubtful at best to play Sunday. And we all know one of their remaining CBs is Dunta. If we still had Schaub, Kubiak would lick his chops over this. Will he let Yates take some shots down the field or limit him to short stuff?

@espn_afcsouth: CB Brett Grimes out for Falcons. Helps #Texans Sunday.

[cadams]

i don't think there is any question that kubiak will have yates take some shots down the field. i am not saying that they will be throwing a lot on sunday, but i think they will definitely take a few shots just to show atlanta they are willing to do it, and to keep the safeties honest and away from the line of scrimage.

[HPF Bob]

The Falcons have the #2 defense in the NFL against the rush so it stands to reason that we are going to need to throw the ball in order to win. Thus, the weaker the Falcons' pass defense is, the easier it will be for Yates to exploit it.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The Falcons have the #2 defense in the NFL against the rush so it stands to reason that we are going to need to throw the ball in order to win. Thus, the weaker the Falcons' pass defense is, the easier it will be for Yates to exploit it.

I haven't seen a single Falcon game this year, but usually I am a little skeptical of a D when the rush/pass rankings are at near polar opposites. Atlanta's secondary isn't that great, ranked 26/27 vs. the pass. Why would anyone run on them, if you can throw it at will?

Not saying that will be or should be, our game plan, I just think rankings get a bit skewed when they are at either ends of the spectrum.

[Arky]

A couple of other things to look at regarding the Atlanta run defense are the attempts/game and yards/attempt. They rank 5th in run attempts/game with 22.6. They rank 5th (tied with two others) in yards/attempt with 3.7. So, there really is no other conclusion to make in that they are pretty dang good against the run.

One thing they share with the Texans is that they are ball hogs - they are able to keep their offenses on the field which means less action for the defense. For offensive time of possession, the Texans are 1st (33:21); the Falcons are 4th (32:39).

Of course, for the Texans, these stats were built with Matt Schaub mostly at QB.

Statistically, there are many similarities between the Texans and Falcons with one exception: the Falcons can be passed on. They are below average in passing defense stats. So, as has been mentioned a few times, the Texans would probably have their best chance at victory working the air and countering with well-timed and well-executed runs.....

Atlanta is on a bit of a roll lately having won 5 of their last 6. Losing to New Orleans in OT 26-23 was their only blip and the only time they allowed more than 17 pts..... So, it would be a minor victory if the Texans, with TJ at the helm, can do better than 17 pts. And if they can do that and the defense steps up and has a good game, they've got a good shot at another W.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Arky

A couple of other things to look at regarding the Atlanta run defense are the attempts/game and yards/attempt. They rank 5th in run attempts/game with 22.6. They rank 5th (tied with two others) in yards/attempt with 3.7. So, there really is no other conclusion to make in that they are pretty dang good against the run.

They have played 5 Top Ten Rushing Offenses:
Bears - 27/88 - Forte 16/68
Philly - 30/133 - McCoy 18/95
Car - 26/139
NO - 14/41
MN - 24/64 - Gearhart was in for Peterson (remember when we wanted THAT guy?)

My only point is, stats can be skewed. Devils Advocate, while we are ranked #1 in Total D, we are not the best D in the league. We are solid, but you have to factor in who we have played.

I have no reservations that we will be able to run on them. My guess is that the Foster/Tate tandem will be in the 30-35 carry range in the 140 yd. area.

At least that is what I hope will happen in order for us to have a chance.....

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

They have played 5 Top Ten Rushing Offenses:
Bears - 27/88 - Forte 16/68 (team = 3.3 ypc)
Philly - 30/133 - McCoy 18/95 (team = 4.4 ypc)
Car - 26/139 (team = 5.3 ypc)
NO - 14/41 (team = 2.9 ypc)
MN - 24/64 - Gearhart was in for Peterson (remember when we wanted THAT guy?) (team = 2.7 ypc)

My only point is, stats can be skewed.

I can agree with that statement, but for team stats, at this point in the season, you can start seeing the trends.... I don't really look at stats until about 4 games into the season and don't really start to trust stats until after about 8 games. If you avg all that red above you get 3.8 ypc which is not that far off their current season avg of 3.7. If your alternate point was that Forte and McCoy had pretty good games against them, yes they did. Let's hope Foster/Tate do also...

Devils Advocate, while we are ranked #1 in Total D, we are not the best D in the league. We are solid, but you have to factor in who we have played.

We're #1 in yds/game (and a couple of other categories, I think) but it's not really Total D. Football Outsiders and their metrics attempt to add in the opponent strength. They currently have the Texans at #4 against the pass and #11 against the run for an overall ranking of #7 defense. The Falcons are right behind us at #8 overall with a #11 ranking against the pass (which is above average) and #2 against the run (there's that #2 again).

I have no reservations that we will be able to run on them. My guess is that the Foster/Tate tandem will be in the 30-35 carry range in the 140 yd. area.

At least that is what I hope will happen in order for us to have a chance.....

Hope you're right!