Sizing Up the Division

[HPF Bob]

Here's the rest of the season for all four teams:

Jacksonville (6-5, 2-1 div, 5-3 AFC)
12/05 at Tennessee (0-1 h2h)
12/12 vs Oakland
12/19 at Indianapolis (1-0 h2h)
12/26 vs Washington
01/02 at Houston (1-0 h2h)

Indianapolis (6-5, 1-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/05 vs Dallas
12/09 at Tennessee (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Oakland
01/02 vs Tennessee (0-0 h2h)

Houston (5-6, 2-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/02 at Philadelphia
12/12 vs Baltimore
12/19 at Tennessee (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Denver
01/02 vs Jacksonville (0-1 h2h)

Tennessee (5-6, 1-1 div, 2-5 AFC)
12/05 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/09 vs Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Houston (0-1 h2h)
12/26 at Kansas City
01/02 at Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)

IMO, Indy has the easiest road here.

[TexicanMexican]

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

[painekiller]

I'm waiting to see how the next two games go before I put on the red colored glasses again this season. I was burned earlier, and I defended the team for a while, so now I am waiting for them to prove they are really contenders not pretenders.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by painekiller

I'm waiting to see how the next two games go before I put on the red colored glasses again this season. I was burned earlier, and I defended the team for a while, so now I am waiting for them to prove they are really contenders not pretenders.

That's the whole thing, right there. If they are a playoff team, then they should be able to beat other playoffs teams. They should be able to beat the Eagles and Ravens of the league..... If they can't, then they aren't there, yet.... (I am not a rocket scientist but I do play one on TV)

[TheMatrix31]

This is how I figure it......

Jacksonville (6-5):

@ Tennessee - W
Oakland - W
@ Indianapolis - L
Washington - W
@ Houston - L

9-7

Indianapolis (6-5):

Dallas - W
@ Tennessee - L
Jacksonville - W
@ Oakland - W
Tennessee - W

10-6

Houston (5-6):

@ Eagles - W
Ravens - L
@ Titans - W
Denver - W
Jacksonville - W

9-7

Tennessee (5-6):

Jacksonville - L
Indianapolis - W
Houston - L
@ Kansas City - L
@ Indianapolis - L

6-10




....Indy gets in, as usual.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

This is how I figure it......

Jacksonville (6-5):

@ Tennessee - W
Oakland - W
@ Indianapolis - L
Washington - W
@ Houston - L

9-7

Indianapolis (6-5):

Dallas - W
@ Tennessee - L
Jacksonville - W
@ Oakland - W
Tennessee - W

10-6

Houston (5-6):

@ Eagles - W
Ravens - L
@ Titans - W
Denver - W
Jacksonville - W

9-7

Tennessee (5-6):

Jacksonville - L
Indianapolis - W
Houston - L
@ Kansas City - L
@ Indianapolis - L

6-10




....Indy gets in, as usual.

Actually, your scenario would put us at 4-2 in the division, and Indy at 3-3, Jax would be 3-3 in the division, and TN would be 2-4.

By winning our division, we are in the dance. If I'm right, our only real 2 "must wins" are the TN and Jax games, plus we need the others to beat each other up.

[TheMatrix31]

Yeah, but Indy would have the better overall, which sucks.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by TexicanMexican

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

You're right, which actually puts more weight on how you do with interconference foes than some intraconference ones.

Using the AFC South as an example, common foes would be division opponents (obviously a tie there in order to get to this tiebreaker) + teams from the AFC West (since all AFC South teams played all AFC West teams) + teams from the NFC East (since all AFC South teams played all NFC East teams). That means 14 of the 16 games on the schedule. So our games against the Jets and Ravens technically mean less than our games against the NFC East. That doesn't seem right.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by TexicanMexican

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

Very good, I stand corrected and corrected my post.

If you want more confusion, tied Wild Card candidates have a different set of tie-breakers (see link). Last year, the Texans lost out on the head-to-head with the Jets.....

[Nconroe]

I'm sure glad ya'll figured that out, looks like no problem at all to make the playoffs. just gotta keep winning. I guess tomorrow night shows a lot.

[WMH]

ESPN has written a scenario generator program. It's a little time consuming right now, but it will fill in the blanks as we draw closer to week 17.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Pretty neat stuff.

[WMH]

Although it is quite faint, and may completely die after MNF, the Texans still have a pulse......sorta, kinda, OK, not really, but mathematically.....

Jacksonville (7-5, 3-1 div, 6-3 AFC)
12/12 vs Oakland
12/19 at Indianapolis (1-0 h2h)
12/26 vs Washington
01/02 at Houston (1-0 h2h)

Indianapolis (6-6, 1-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/09 at Tennessee (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Oakland
01/02 vs Tennessee (0-0 h2h)

Houston (5-7, 2-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/12 vs Baltimore
12/19 at Tennessee (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Denver
01/02 vs Jacksonville (0-1 h2h)

Tennessee (5-7, 1-2 div, 2-6 AFC)
12/09 vs Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Houston (0-1 h2h)
12/26 at Kansas City
01/02 at Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)

[NBT]

Of the games remaining, I see the Texans losing to Baltimore and Jax. KC & Denver should be winnable, but I wouldn't put my last dollar on it. Final for us, 7-9.

[superbowlbound]

It's not really all that far out of reach, really. I know beating Baltimore is gonna be no small task, but Denver and Tennessee both looked like garbage on sunday, and I really don't think Jacksonville is all that good, so we could be rolling downhill if we can just find a way to pull one out on monday night. The reason I say this is because, now ask yourself, "Are these 2 scenarios really THAT unlikely?"

First, the Colts go 3-1, beating a Titans team that has quit twice, taking revenge on the Jags at home, and losing on the road to the now 6-6 Raiders.

Second, the Jags go 2-2, with wins at home and losses on the road in indy and here in houston.

IF we win our next 3, Jacksonville can only eliminate us by doing the same, otherwise we win the division by beating them at home in week 17, unless the colts win out as well. As long as we go 4-0, any loss by the colts eliminates them.

We'd actually win an 8-8 tiebreaker, if the the Texans only loss ISN'T @Tennessee, AND the Jags only win ISN'T @ Indy.

sure, we need some help, but it's WAY less than we needed last year, and that almost happened.