Sizing Up the Division

[WMH]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

This year is gonna be another blown opportunity we'll look back at and regret like last year because I think the division winner, with no wild-card coming out of the AFC South, will be 9-7 and we aren't sniffing 9-7 IMO.

Definitely blown opportunities...but do we even need 9-7? I am strictly talking about division wins, we need 2 to get to 4-2 for the division. If Indy ends up with 4 division wins, then they will get the spot, as they will likely end up with a better record than us.

Based on what has already occurred, 8-8 with 2 key division wins, and a win @ Denver could put us in the dance.

IMO - Our biggest chance at this, other than winning those two games, is TN beating Indy next Thursday night.

Color me crazy, but it could happen.

[HPF Bob]

The division tiebreakers are going to be:

1. Overall record
2. Head-to-head record
3. Division record
4. Conference record

so the Texans start all this out one game in the hole in the overall record compared to the Colts and the Jaguars. The real question is whether the Titans are already done for the year. They won't be playing for Vince and they certainly didn't look like they were playing for Fisher.

IF the Jaguars can topple the Colts (they seem to be the one over the years with the best handle on them inside the division), they would be the improbable favorites at this point.

Will the officials try to prop up the Colts, knowing the tv draw that is Peyton Manning or will somebody put that beat-up group out of their misery?

As for Houston, they are relatively healthy compared to the others and have put together some big Decembers in the past but their defense, though improving, still sucks and that's going to be their big problem.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The division tiebreakers are going to be:

1. Overall record
2. Head-to-head record
3. Division record
4. Conference record

From NFL.com - http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

So, if we end up 4-2 and get the division crown, everyone else ends up at 3-3 or worse, we take the division, and the playoff spot, regardless of the overall record.....is that not correct?

[HPF Bob]

If we end up with more wins than the others, yes, that's all you need to know.

But if two teams tie for the top, say Jacksonville and Indianapolis, then the next tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. If J-ville beat Indy both times, J-ville wins the division. But if the teams split their two games, the next tie-breaker will be record within the division. Now, if those two teams ended with the same division record, then they go to record within the conference. And if that's a tie, then they start going to things like net points, etc.

If three teams tie for the top of the division, they will compare each tiebreaker until one is eliminated then they will revert to the two-team tiebreaker.

[HPF Bob]

Here's the rest of the season for all four teams:

Jacksonville (6-5, 2-1 div, 5-3 AFC)
12/05 at Tennessee (0-1 h2h)
12/12 vs Oakland
12/19 at Indianapolis (1-0 h2h)
12/26 vs Washington
01/02 at Houston (1-0 h2h)

Indianapolis (6-5, 1-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/05 vs Dallas
12/09 at Tennessee (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Oakland
01/02 vs Tennessee (0-0 h2h)

Houston (5-6, 2-2 div, 4-4 AFC)
12/02 at Philadelphia
12/12 vs Baltimore
12/19 at Tennessee (1-0 h2h)
12/26 at Denver
01/02 vs Jacksonville (0-1 h2h)

Tennessee (5-6, 1-1 div, 2-5 AFC)
12/05 vs Jacksonville (1-0 h2h)
12/09 vs Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)
12/19 vs Houston (0-1 h2h)
12/26 at Kansas City
01/02 at Indianapolis (0-0 h2h)

IMO, Indy has the easiest road here.

[TexicanMexican]

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

[painekiller]

I'm waiting to see how the next two games go before I put on the red colored glasses again this season. I was burned earlier, and I defended the team for a while, so now I am waiting for them to prove they are really contenders not pretenders.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by TexicanMexican

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

You're right, which actually puts more weight on how you do with interconference foes than some intraconference ones.

Using the AFC South as an example, common foes would be division opponents (obviously a tie there in order to get to this tiebreaker) + teams from the AFC West (since all AFC South teams played all AFC West teams) + teams from the NFC East (since all AFC South teams played all NFC East teams). That means 14 of the 16 games on the schedule. So our games against the Jets and Ravens technically mean less than our games against the NFC East. That doesn't seem right.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by TexicanMexican

According to nfl.com, http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures, conference record is 4th tiebreaker. Best winning percentage against common opponents is the 3rd tiebreaker.

Very good, I stand corrected and corrected my post.

If you want more confusion, tied Wild Card candidates have a different set of tie-breakers (see link). Last year, the Texans lost out on the head-to-head with the Jets.....