Playoff possibilities & why Houston should be more optimisitc

[WMH]

Originally Posted by bckey

I can't believe you guys hold out hope for the Texans to make the playoffs. Aint gonna happen. They will beat the Seahawks and Rams but what they should beat them. They are really bad. They blew it when they lost 4 straight division games. Calculate all you want but but the answer will still be the same. Texans relaxing at home watching the playoffs on tv. And we will get another year of Kubiak's mediocre football because McNair likes Kubiak just like he did Carr and it clouds his judgement when making the tough decisions.

Look here fella......if you want to be realistic, go somewhere else

In message boards, dreams come true...until they don't.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by WMH

In message boards, dreams come true...until they don't.

Tell it to Hitler.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWnx__VqIGE



...this video has been re-done with subtitles a bunch (the Romo and Aggie ones are funnier), but since this deals with the Texans and their playoff aspirations, I figured it was appropriate in this thread. Enjoy.

[Arky]

I believe if the Texans win against the Rams, they will still be mathematically alive...i.e. some other teams victory can't eliminate the Texans at this point unless the Texans eliminate themselves...

Baltimore, I'd say, is the favorite among this bunch. They may very well end up 10-6....

[Fonz the Boss]

Jets lost today and Miami lost against the Titans. Now they are all even at 7-7.... I hope the Colts go for the undefeated season so they can bring their A game vs the Jets. If we beat Miami then we go ahead of them. What about the Titans? If they end up 9-7 also then who gets the advantage? Hard to believe the Titans are 7-7 after 0-6. That team is gonna be a tough one to beat if they make the playoffs.

Teams in playoff hunt that are still playing right now are the Ravens and the Steelers

[HPF Bob]

Essentially, we are one game behind Denver and Baltimore and tied with a bunch of teams at 7-7. This gets pretty easy to figure:

Win both remaining games and hope the tiebreakers shake out in your favor. That'll be tough because some teams (Jacksonville and Tennessee included) have the tiebreakers over us. But anything can happen when the NFL calculators start crankin'.

[TheMatrix31]

Hopefully someone can re-crank out the possibilities. I just like to know what would have to happen, even though I know it's not gonna happen.

[itssharif]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

Hopefully someone can re-crank out the possibilities. I just like to know what would have to happen, even though I know it's not gonna happen.

The situation has now basically come to this. The Texans have to ABSOLUTELY WIN on Sunday against Miami. If that can happen that win can do 2 things. 1) of course the obvious improve our own record but 2) it would clinch the division for New England no matter their outcomes. Now comes the tricky part. The Jets CANNOT win out. If they do they have a very strong conference mark and will virtually eliminate everybody else who is 9-7 EXCEPT the Jaguars. So with that being said we need a loss from both of those teams for sure. Another loss is needed from Tennessee because they own the division tie breaker with us. The only scenario we beat out Denver is if they lose out. Now the final part that is a little tricky is the Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh scenarios. The situation is as follows. Cincinnati owns the tie breaker within the division (which is the 1st tie breaker applied always) so the only way for them to get beaten out is by the benefit of a greater record. Technically Baltimore is the only team that can viably achieve that in the AFC North. That being said if Baltimore is to win out so that we could utilize our advantage over Cincy courtesy of the head to head we own against them; Cincy would have to lose vs. KC and then again at N.Y Jets. Because the Jets hold a lot of the cards (of the potential 9-7 teams) it is actually NOT beneficial for us to somehow end up in this scenario because along with the sheer unlikelyhood of it even happenning there are still a number of scenarios that could work against us so I'm considering this scenario as incredibly unlikely (and probably just down right not beneficial for us) even though it technically can still happen. The more likely scenario of the AFC North is if Cincy wins in week 16 against KC and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh (this game is a huge toss up and very much up for debate but I think it is very possible for Pittsburgh to pull this off). The only tie breaker we possess against any of the other 7-7 teams is against Pittsburgh ONLY (meaning we can not be tied to any other teams at the time of us being tied to Pittsburgh). So with all this being said if I could have a perfect scenario after Week 16's set of games it would all end up like this:

Scenario 1 (my opinion of easier and more likelier path)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Pit beats Bal

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

5- Baltimore (8-7)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)
8- Pittsburgh (8-7)

Then that would basically leave us praying for both the Win against New England AND loss to Baltimore via Oakland OR a loss to Denver via Kansas City.

Scenario 2 (less likely to happen)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Bal beats Pit
KC beats Cin

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

4- Cincinnati (9-6)
5- Baltimore (9-6)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)

In this case again WE NEED TO WIN and then root for either a KC win OR a Baltimore win AND a Cincy loss.

The only thing I like going for us is that the Week 16 schedule just looks overall favorable for us IF we can just make sure to win (God please don't let the Texans screw this up). I know I can see very loseable games for our other in the hunt and wild card contenders and it can end up making for a very memorable final game of the regular season. Again to simplify for all we need wild card contenders to lose out and only possess 2 potential tie breakers in a win out scenario. One of which is not very likely to be used (over Cincy) and the other of which (over Pittsburgh) can only happen if they win out. Just believe guys. Pray and believe!

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Fonz the Boss

What about the Titans? If they end up 9-7 also then who gets the advantage?

Of course we split on head-to-head games with them, but I understand they come out ahead on the next tie-breaker (either division/conference record ?).
Their next game is SD, but it's in Nashville and not the WC.

[Fonz the Boss]

Games this coming week

- Jets(7-7) @ Indy- Hopefully the Colts go for the undefeated season

- Ravens (8-6) @ Pittsburgh (7-7)- Who should we be rooting for here? And why?

- Chargers @ Titans (7-7)- This game is on Friday and the Chargers are undefeated in December since 2006. Hopefully that streak continues.

- Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots- Im hoping that the good Patriots show up for this game.

- Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles- Broncos are on a downslide so they can probably lose this game also.

- Texans (7-7) @ Miami (7-7)- Dolphins are probably pissed by the way they lost so this is gonna be a tough game. This game is HUGE for the Texans so i hope they dont vlow it.

All we have to do is win one game at a time.... It starts with Miami

[WMH]

CBS Sportsline runs thru all the scenarios.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standin...race/scenarios

Our tiebreaker situation is horrendous.......IF we win these last two. I think both wild cards will end up 9-7, but division/conference record....not so good for the home team.

BUT, there is a chance