|
|
|
|
#1
06-18-2009, 09:45 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
what that says to me is that the Texans are saying Winslows deal is unreasonable and we are not going to use that as a basis for a contract with Owen. O.D. is saying that's market value for a top TE right now.
__________________
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-BobMcNair 
|
|
#2
06-18-2009, 10:58 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
The Texans, however, still have the leverage here, especially in the absence of a new CBA. Daniels is a RFA, and there is little he can do to push his point assuming he'll cease his life as a holdout at some point. The question is just going to be how far apart the two parties are.
|
|
#3
06-18-2009, 01:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Daniels is a good TE, but not in the league of Gonzales or Gates or others and he appears to have a very inflated idea of his value to the team. If he got what these reports seem to imply he's after, just imagine what the Texans would have to cough up for DeMeco (not to mention Mario, Shaub, & others down the road). And of course they'd have to rewrite AJs deal. And they just drafted 2 more TEs this year and Dressen isn't a bad backup for OD, while being at 260 quite a bit bigger than OD. Now that OD has signed his tender, isn't he ripe as trade bait ? I'd consider trading him for a high 2nd, and be all over any 1st round pick.
|
|
#4
06-18-2009, 01:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#5
06-18-2009, 02:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too. Quote:
Daniels: 2008 70-862-2 2007 63-768-3 2006 34-352-5 Bronco Leading TEs: 2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4 2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year. Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good? I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon. btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.
|
|
#6
06-18-2009, 02:39 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
As a sub Daniels got lucky when Gates or somebody cancelled out and he went to Hawaii and actually got in the game, caught a couple passes, even a TD pass. For being a lucky sub he's now worth 20 M guaranteed ? On the other hand I say pay DeMeco, really whatever it takes because he's our best D player (sorry Mario), and the leader of the D ?
|
|
#7
06-18-2009, 04:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
If you want to get mad at anyone get mad at Tampa Bay for giving Winslow all that money.
__________________
"Well, at least our players kept their helmets on, so that showed some intelligence"-BobMcNair
|
|
#8
06-18-2009, 04:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub. Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have. Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites. It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.
|
|
#9
06-19-2009, 11:34 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#10
06-19-2009, 11:50 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
It's just the idea of "fit" here that can be frustrating. Of course he is a fit, as Casey and Dreesen might be... they were added to the roster because of the expectations of their fit with the offense. Take a "better" TE like Winslow or Gates or Clark or Cooley or whoever you think is better... would those guys be that much more effective than Daniels in this system? Marginally, maybe, but it's speculation either way, so all we have to go on is what Daniels actually produced, which by his third season has been Pro Bowl-quality receiving stats. btw, I realize Owen had a few dropsies in 2007, but Daniels had one fumble lost last year, the same as Winslow, Gates and Clark, and one less than Cooley. His new contract would pay him for production in 2009 and beyond mostly based on his 2008 performance and the potential he has based on that.
|
|
#11
06-19-2009, 01:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Keith, I agree with a lot of this. It definitely is speculation what anyone would do. I also agree that statistically we may not get much more out of any other top TE. The only thing I disagree on is that we won't get much less from any other TE not making top money.
I feel like Daniels is a very smart player who takes advantage of LB coverage and picks up lots of catches and first downs in the middle of the field. This is an important contribution and helped make our offense what it was. But when things tightened up on the goalline, he did not have the ability to either create space, or take the ball from the defender. To me this is what the top 2-3 TEs are paid for. You have a bunch of guys paid similarly who can block a little and catch the football. Daniels should be paid at the top end of that range. Then you have a few guys paid a premium because they make their living catching TDs. Daniels cannot reasonably ask for premium money until he shows he is a redzone threat.
|
|
#12
06-24-2009, 10:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
 My thoughts are that Owen Daniels is a good tight end (maybe even very good) but not elite. Essentially a Todd Heap-type rather than an Antonio Gates - certainly nothing to sneeze at and better than most of the league, but not a scary guy. And I'm not sure whether I would want to allocate significant cap resources to a tight end unless they were all-world (and whomever Daniels signs his next contract with will surely be allocating some serious coinage.) Going back to the table you posted on the front page, I come to a slightly different conclusion about the table you posted. Quote:
Bronco TEs: 2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 + Desmond Clark 27-339-3 = 64-820-3 2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 + Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 = 85-865-10 2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 + Carswell 21-189-1 = 82-875-4 2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 + Carswell 6-53-1 = 68-823-9 2004* Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 + Carswell 22-198-1 = 58-770-3 2005* Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 + Stephen Alexander 27-170-1 = 64-651-1 *H-Back/FB/TE Kyle Johnson also contributed 9-126-2 in '04 and 17-160-5 in '05, but, as the slashes indicate, considering him just a TE is problematic. Texans TEs: 2006 Daniels 34-352-5 + Putzier 13-125-0 = 47-477-5 2007 Daniels 63-768-3 + Putzier/Dreesen 10-94-3 = 73-862-6 2008 Daniels 70-862-2 + Dreesen 11-77-0 = 81-939-2 There are a few things I take away from this grouping. One is that OD provides the lion's share of the Texans TE production. In contrast, the Denver years have two years with split production and in the other years only once did the 2nd TE fail to pick up 170 yards. My interpretation is that this probably occurred due to a few factors. One, Daniels has been considerably better than our 2nd tight ends and has been durable enough be on the field almost all the time. The blocking TE, Bruener, the Texans have paired Daniels with was also not going to see many throws aimed his way. The other thing I notice from this grouping, though, is that the Broncos combined TE production has been similar to the Texans in the Kubiak offense. The average for the years cited for Denver TE's is 70-801-5; the average for Texans TEs is 67-759-4. If you throw out Owen's rookie year, the Texans averages are 77-900-4. If you just compare the Bronco's top TE's to OD you get: Bronco TEs: 2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 Average: 47-593-3 Owen Daniels: 2006 Daniels 34-352-5 2007 Daniels 63-768-3 2008 Daniels 70-862-2 OD Avg: 56-661-3 While I think that Denver chart gives a less clear view of Denver's TE dynamic, I think it's interesting because of the players involved. Dwayne Carswell was an oversized blocking TE who would convert to the offensive line late in his career; only 3 times in his career did he exceed 200 yards receiving (the two mentioned, plus one year at 201 yards.) Desmond Clark disappeared after the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, not matching his 2001 timeshare season again until 2006 when he came out of witness protection for Ron Turner's Bears offense. Sharpe, at the end of his career, was able to average 728 yards and 5 TDs at the ages of 34 and 35 in this offense. The worst two years on the Broncos list belong to Putzier who has only 19 receptions since the 2004-05 campaigns and couldn't even muster a decent timeshare in Houston despite knowing the system. Even Putzier averaged 525 yards in his years as the #1 TE. For a guy whose done nothing since even as he entered what should have been the prime of his career, 525 yards per year makes it seem like you should be able to plug anyone whose hands aren't made of stone into this offense and get a solid level of production. This isn't to say that Owen hasn't been better than his Denver predecessors. He has been and I think he's been a pretty good receiving weapon for us. But I'm not sure if he's worth paying him the numbers he will likely get when we can likely get decent production for considerably less money. I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line. I'm wondering if the Texans might be thinking they might be able to match OD's production with a Casey/Hill pairing that would be similar to the Clark/Carswell grouping that combined to produce OD-like numbers. I think these next 8 months or so will be quite interesting to watch how the front office and coaching staff manage this situation. Last edited by dadmg; 06-24-2009 at 10:16 PM.
|
|
#13
06-24-2009, 10:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Average players are available and come and go. I think it was Charles Barkley who said the NBA was a league of all-stars, i.e. everyone who's good enough to make it can play at a real high level, but not everyone is special and truly capable of separating themselves from the rest of the 'stars'. The NFL is not the NBA, but I think the same perspective is applicable. Premium players are harder to find and they come at a price. Everyone is going to have different thresholds on what to pay. And where to spend it. Just like with the expansion era Texans when the team had to answer a philosophical question about where to spend their top draft picks, position-wise (yes... if they were really going to go BPA, then they probably would not have forced a QB up their draft board in 2002 for example.) There's the franchise QB, the LT, the pass rusher, the shutdown corner... you have to go really far down that list before you get the seam-busting TE. This where I hesitate to open McNair's wallet ...if I was working under a strict budget. Quote:
As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.
|
|
#14
06-24-2009, 11:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I took a similar approach with this, looking at top TE salaries in 2008 and top TE stats includingTDs in 2008. I don't know if OD has been offered a fair or long term deal or exactly where he is evaluated, but I think he need to show up for practice.
Salary looks to me like 2.9 isn't too bad for a TE and some good ones make less than that, a few make more, Skill, is it TDs or yardage or blocking , doesn't seem like that unusually special , but pretty good. From USA Today salary Database get this Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value Gonzalez, Tony Chiefs $ 1,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 500,840 $ 1,500,840 $ 5,032,215 Winslow, Kellen Browns $ 4,000,000 $ 0 $ 1,607,500 $ 5,607,500 $ 4,599,584 Smith, L.J. Eagles $ 4,022,000 $ 0 $ 1,320 $ 4,023,320 $ 4,523,320 Gates, Antonio Chargers $ 3,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 840 $ 3,000,840 $ 4,200,840 Graham, Daniel Broncos $ 700,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 900,000 $ 4,150,000 Witten, Jason Cowboys $ 1,905,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 5,760 $ 1,910,760 $ 4,110,760 McMichael, Randy Rams $ 2,900,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 1,440 $ 2,901,440 $ 3,901,440 Kleinsasser, Jim Vikings $ 2,400,000 $ 0 $ 600,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 3,850,000 Heap, Todd Ravens $ 730,000 $ 2,270,000 $ 4,680 $ 3,004,680 $ 3,502,180 Davis, Vernon 49ers $ 900,000 $ 0 $ 3,775,000 $ 4,675,000 $ 3,340,000 Shiancoe, Odai Vikings $ 2,100,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 3,200,000 Kelly, Reggie Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 2,200,000 $ 3,200,000 Miller, Zach Raiders $ 370,000 $ 965,000 $ 5,174,880 $ 5,544,880 $ 3,139,130 Cooley, Chris Redskins $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 90,000 $ 11,695,000 $ 3,028,333 Lee, Donald Packers $ 1,600,000 $ 0 $ 1,366,720 $ 2,966,720 $ 2,881,720 Utecht, Ben Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 5,040 $ 4,005,040 $ 2,671,706 Clark, Dallas Colts $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 45,000 $ 11,650,000 $ 2,483,333 Shockey, Jeremy Saints $ 1,925,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,425,000 $ 2,425,000 Clark, Desmond Bears $ 1,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 3,506,720 $ 2,340,056 Royal, Robert Bills $ 1,675,000 $ 2,500,000 $ 152,160 $ 1,827,160 $ 2,327,160 Campbell, Dan Lions $ 1,800,000 $ 0 $ 75,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 2,315,000 Crumpler, Alge Titans $ 1,200,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 2,706,720 $ 2,056,720 Is Gonzales the top TE, hear are his stats to compare, so OD is not Gonzales. More yards and lots more TD's. GONZALEZ’S NFL STATISTICS RECEIVING Year Team G-S No. Yds. Avg. LG TD 1997 Kansas City 16-0 33 368 11.2 30 2 1998 Kansas City 16-16 59 621 10.5 32 2 1999 Kansas City 15-15 76 849 11.2 73 11 2000 Kansas City 16-16 93 1,203 12.9 39 9 2001 Kansas City 16-16 73 917 12.8 36 6 2002 Kansas City 16-16 63 773 12.3 42 7 2003 Kansas City 16-16 71 916 12.9 67 10 2004 Kansas City 16-16 102 1,258 12.3 32 7 Totals 127-111 570 6,905 12.1 73 54 TE in 2008 stats - from ESPN receiver ranking RNK NAME REC YDS AVG YPG LNG TD FUM LST 12 Tony Gonzalez TE, KAN 96 1058 11.0 66.1 35 10 0 0 25 Jason Witten TE, DAL 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 0 0 32 Owen Daniels TE, HOU 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 2 1 35 Chris Cooley TE, WAS 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 3 2 36 Dallas Clark TE, IND 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 2 1 and TE ranking from nfl.com for 2008, Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM 1 Tony Gonzalez KC TE 96 1,058 11.0 66.1 35 10 10 0 67 69.8 0 2 Chris Cooley WAS TE 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 7 0 43 51.8 3 3 Jason Witten DAL TE 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 14 1 50 61.7 0 4 Dallas Clark IND TE 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 13 0 41 53.2 2 5 Owen Daniels HOU TE 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 10 0 46 65.7 2 6 Antonio Gates SD TE 60 704 11.7 44.0 34 8 8 0 39 65.0 1 7 Bo Scaife TEN TE 58 561 9.7 35.1 44 2 4 1 29 50.0 1 8 Zach Miller OAK TE 56 778 13.9 48.6 63T 1 16 1 32 57.1 0 9 John Carlson SEA TE 55 627 11.4 39.2 33 5 10 0 36 65.5 0 10 Greg Olsen CHI TE 54 574 10.6 35.9 52 5 6 1 31 57.4 2 11 Jeremy Shockey NO TE 50 483 9.7 40.2 26 0 4 0 30 60.0 2 12 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 48 535 11.1 33.4 54 3 7 1 32 66.7 0 12 Heath Miller PIT TE 48 514 10.7 36.7 22 3 4 0 29 60.4 1 14 Billy Miller NO TE 45 579 12.9 38.6 41 1 11 1 30 66.7 0 15 Kellen Winslow CLE TE 43 428 10.0 42.8 30 3 3 0 25 58.1 1 16 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE 42 596 14.2 37.2 40 7 12 1 30 71.4 0 17 Desmond Clark CHI TE 41 367 9.0 22.9 35 1 5 0 18 43.9 1 and then ODs stats from nfl.com Season Team Receiving Rushing Fumbles G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost 2008 Houston Texans 16 16 70 862 12.3 35 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 1 2007 Houston Texans 16 16 63 768 12.2 29 3 -- -- -- -- -- 4 3 2006 Houston Texans 14 12 34 352 10.4 33T 5 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- TOTAL 167 1,982 11.9 35 10 0 0 0.0 0 0 6 4 Overall, sure be fair and be realistic, OD, you have good competition to make the team now. Last edited by Nconroe; 06-24-2009 at 11:41 PM.
|
|
#15
06-25-2009, 03:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Quote:
|
 |
| Bookmarks |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
