Rick Gosselin's first NFL mock draft

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If I remember correctly, Gosselin's mocks are all BS until the final one when he releases the inside stuff the war rooms have been feeding him.

Ayers reminds me of Jarvis Moss - had a short, successful college career based on speed, blossomed at the right time to be drafted high and was never heard from again. I'd take a chance on him in the second, but not in the Top 15.

College careers are pretty darn short and it's also a period of time when players change physically and mentally a dramatic amount. I think eliminating a player from consideration because his last college season was his only good one is a recipe to miss on a lot of good players.

As an NFL organization preparing for the draft, we would certainly need to assess through interviews,etc... why a player wasn't more productive earlier in his college career... could be lots of reasons:

-late bloomer physically
-bad coaching early
-undisciplined early in college career
-injuries
-bad scheme
etc...

I don't know too much about Ayers. Fortunately, I am aware enough of my ignorance not to compare him to another player simply because one small aspect of their college careers had some similarities. To assume Ayers will likely be a failure simply by judging Moss' short career in the NFL seems like a heck of a jump. I'm glad that wasn't the mentality of the Texans when they selected Mario Williams over guys with better college careers like: Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Vince Young, AJ Hawk. Or, remembering 2006, a similar concern was the rate of failure over the previous 15 years when DEs were selected in the top of the first round- other than Peppers, it was a pretty ugly list, headed up by guys like Courtney Brown, and Audrey Bruce.

Anyway, you have to trust your evaluation process and then take the guy. I think it's a serious error to play percentages based on criteria that really have nothing to do with the individual. We aren't selling insurance, after all!

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

-undisciplined early in college career
-injuries
-bad scheme
etc...

I don't know too much about Ayers!

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/518624

Ayers redshirted as a 230-pound outside linebacker for Tennessee in 2004. Having bulked up to 250 pounds prior to the 2005 campaign, he shifted to left defensive end. He backed up All-SEC choice Parys Haralson, as he delivered five tackles (three solo) and a six-yard sack in nine games.

The redshirt sophomore shifted to right end the following season, playing behind Antonio Reynolds, but was hampered early in the 2006 season by a left hand fracture suffered in August camp. He would produce 25 tackles (17 solo) with one sack in 13 games, earning two late-season starting assignments.

In 2007, Ayers was a reserve behind Antonio Reynolds. Even though he was used off the bench, he led the team with four sacks and 12 stops behind the line of scrimmage. He also collected 34 tackles (25 solo) with two pass breakups and four quarterback pressures.

As a senior, Ayers caught fire at midseason to deliver 49 tackles (34 solo) with three sacks, leading the team and league with 15.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage. He also had six pressures and his first career interception.

Character: Ayers has kept himself out of trouble since his 2005 arrest for involvement in a fraternity fight. He had problems with the coaching staff earlier in his career and even his head coach publicly stated that he had issues dealing with authority and others, not heeding advice from the squad's veteran players. But over his four years, he matured to the point where he served as one of the team's captains in 2008.

"When Robert got here, he thought he was God's gift to football," former head coach Phillip Fulmer said. "He wouldn't listen to the upperclassmen -- not in a bad way, but he just didn't take to coaching very well. (As a senior) he's starving for coaching, and he's giving great effort. He's turned into a big-time SEC defensive end."

Ayers wanted to be a linebacker but agreed to slide to defensive tackle, where the Vols had serious depth concerns. It would have been easy for Ayers to fight even a situational role in his last chance to show NFL scouts his ability at end. However, he was more concerned with his last chance to win an SEC championship.

"Obviously, I feel like I'm better off the edge," he said. "But I'll do whatever the coaches ask me to do," Ayers stated prior to his banner senior season.



--Now you know

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

To assume Ayers will likely be a failure simply by judging Moss' short career in the NFL seems like a heck of a jump.

I didn't say he would fail. I said I wouldn't spend a top 15 pick on him. My draft philosophy is that, the higher the draft choice, the less willing I am to gamble. I look for red flags and the more that come up, the more inclined I am to drop them down a round and not gamble on them until they become a "bargain". Yes, that means passing up on a Warren Sapp but it also means I'm far less likely to be stung by an Adam "Pacman" Jones.

I also prefer a player who has had 2-3 good seasons in college. A guy like A.J. Hawk or James Laurinitis has a track record to study and even if they might have less physical gifts than some other LB prospects, at least you can be pretty certain what you are getting.