Draft needs coming into focus

[Blitzwood]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

For me, one of the problems with drafting Lbs high this season is that, barring injury, a team rarely uses more than 4 over the course of entire game-sometimes only the three starters (depending on whether there is a nickel replacement). Meanwhile, though a base defense has only 2 CBs, almost every game you will see 4 CBs get extensive playing time... Similarly, though we start 4 DL, it's likely that 7 or 8 make an impact in a game.

So, while Adibi and Diles have some questions, I think their promise is enough that a high round pick on a LB may only marginally improve the team. Meanwhile, a high pick at DE, DT, CB, S all can significantly improve the team, even if the starters stay healthy and the rookies are unable to unseat them... If we draft Cushing in round one, it's possible that he doesnt beat out Diles or Adibi and therefore will only see the field because of injury or because he's been pressed on the field due to his draft position and salary cap number.

Good point.

I don't know about ya'll, but something just doesn't make any sense if you really think about it. If I was Kubiak, would I give an interview before the draft to say what my true intentions were in the upcoming draft??? I don't think so. Unless I want to put some pressure on the teams picking before me, or I don't value my head coaching job.


I'm hoping it's the former. There are several teams like Buff, N.O.,Green Bay, Denver, and Washington who all need LB's and all draft before us. So Kubiak gets McClain to say we're gonna target Matthews, and even pushing the "3rd best offense" load as well. (Maybe so on YPG, but it's meaningless if we're still not in the playoffs and we still have trouble scoring in goalline situations.) Kubiak then gives an interview to say we're looking at OLB's. He couldn't just come out and say were looking at Matthews because noone would believe him. He also says they'd be "hard pressed" to take an offensive player. It just seemed too desperate to be real, why would you tell the whole world you intentions.

If Kubiak was really targeting Matthews, don't you think he would have put a muzzle on JM weeks ago. And what struck me as odd was McClain saying in his chat that he would never say who we were targeting because there are teams reading his blog, blah, blah, blah...
I remember watching him on NFLHD, and thinking to myself, you sure sound very confident saying that, almost too sure, as if you were instructed or otherwise advised.

I take that as we are probably looking at RB's early if thats his best value at 15, or trade down and see whats available. I know Beanie has to be very tempting for the Texans, and is undervalued right now, so Kubiak is for all accounts tring to keep it that way by focusing all the attention on the LB's. He's got the nastiest stiff arm I've seen, is strong as an ox, and only missed 3 games his entire carreer at OSU, although you wouldn't know it from all the rumors and false info out there.

If we trade down, I have to believe it's to take Darius Butler out of Conn.

Just my 2 cents.

[jppaul]

Ok lets wiegh the evidence on the other side.

1) Denver is not a team that often drafts running backs early. We are Denver South. We have thier former offensive coordinator, the architect of their zone blocking scheme, a GM who learned his craft in thier front office. We haven't drafted running backs early in the three years since Kubiak has been here. Undoubtedly, you will cite Duane Brown as supporting evidence that we buck the Denver trends here, but I will point to George Foster to disprove that.

2) Smith's past luck with RBs has been sketchy at best (green, brown come to mind), and a first round pick is like dropping 500 on the roulette table when your on a losing streak. Many more picks like Ahman Green and he is in trouble. It just doesn't make much sense. Wells has injury concerns, thats the big knock on him. I am sure Smith doesn't want to get burned again on another injury ridden pick. Smith on the other hand is batting a 100% on 2nd day RBs.

3) We have a top ten RB, and a crappy defense. Our offense is ranked number three, but a defense ranked in the 20s. So by all means lets keep piling on high value draft picks into our best (least need) area and neglect our worst (highest need) area. Makes sense.

4) We have an obvious need at OLB. Diles is a better will than a sam. Adibi has a lot of potential but is injury prone. Thus, we have a need. Even better if that OLB can put his hand on the ground on third downs and rush the passer (as Smith and Kubiak have already evidenced an interest in) it is a two for one deal.

5) The value is there. There will be two OLBs likely to go in the 10-20 range. Knowshon Moreno is the only RB pick with value there and he's not exactly the 230 pound sledge hammer that Kubiak seems to be talking about.

6) Sometimes teams say who they are going to pick. It just happens.