Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

How does that data compare to the number of teams who have a QB drafted in the 2nd round who is still with them and leading them to the playoffs? How about the 3rd round? I would bet there are more teams with 1st round drafted QBs in the playoffs every year than 2nd round drafted QBs every year. But of course rounds 2-7 plus FA and Trade gets more QBs than just round 1 by itself.

How many playoff teams have RTs they drafted in the 1st round? (I bet none)

DEs they drafted in the first round? (I bet just as many as QB)

You are manipulating data to fit a pre-determined opinion (you don't want a 1st round QB).

Actual analysis says 3 teams drafted their QB in round 1, 1 team in round 2, 1 team in round 3, 1 team in round 6, and 1 UDFA. 2 others signed FAs, and 2 traded for theirs. This means the most likely way to get a playoff QB is to draft one in the 1st round (Luck, Stafford, Newton).

But remove the original team caveat and you get this;

Manning, Luck, Stafford, Newton, Palmer, and Alex Smith were not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks. That means half of this year's playoff QBs were #1 overall picks.

Does any of this mean we MUST go QB. Absolutely not. It just means Bob's stats were misleading and I can mislead with stats just as easily if I so desired.