Owen Daniels Contract Negotiations

[Keith]

Originally Posted by dadmg

I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap

I think this is the point where the argument boils down. Yours is an interesting counterpoint, and I think we possibly differ here on something of a philosophical perspective.

Average players are available and come and go. I think it was Charles Barkley who said the NBA was a league of all-stars, i.e. everyone who's good enough to make it can play at a real high level, but not everyone is special and truly capable of separating themselves from the rest of the 'stars'. The NFL is not the NBA, but I think the same perspective is applicable. Premium players are harder to find and they come at a price. Everyone is going to have different thresholds on what to pay.

And where to spend it. Just like with the expansion era Texans when the team had to answer a philosophical question about where to spend their top draft picks, position-wise (yes... if they were really going to go BPA, then they probably would not have forced a QB up their draft board in 2002 for example.) There's the franchise QB, the LT, the pass rusher, the shutdown corner... you have to go really far down that list before you get the seam-busting TE. This where I hesitate to open McNair's wallet ...if I was working under a strict budget.

Originally Posted by dadmg

and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line.

So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

[Nconroe]

I took a similar approach with this, looking at top TE salaries in 2008 and top TE stats includingTDs in 2008. I don't know if OD has been offered a fair or long term deal or exactly where he is evaluated, but I think he need to show up for practice.
Salary looks to me like 2.9 isn't too bad for a TE and some good ones make less than that, a few make more,
Skill, is it TDs or yardage or blocking , doesn't seem like that unusually special , but pretty good.

From USA Today salary Database get this
Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value
Gonzalez, Tony Chiefs $ 1,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 500,840 $ 1,500,840 $ 5,032,215
Winslow, Kellen Browns $ 4,000,000 $ 0 $ 1,607,500 $ 5,607,500 $ 4,599,584
Smith, L.J. Eagles $ 4,022,000 $ 0 $ 1,320 $ 4,023,320 $ 4,523,320
Gates, Antonio Chargers $ 3,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 840 $ 3,000,840 $ 4,200,840
Graham, Daniel Broncos $ 700,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 900,000 $ 4,150,000
Witten, Jason Cowboys $ 1,905,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 5,760 $ 1,910,760 $ 4,110,760
McMichael, Randy Rams $ 2,900,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 1,440 $ 2,901,440 $ 3,901,440
Kleinsasser, Jim Vikings $ 2,400,000 $ 0 $ 600,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 3,850,000
Heap, Todd Ravens $ 730,000 $ 2,270,000 $ 4,680 $ 3,004,680 $ 3,502,180
Davis, Vernon 49ers $ 900,000 $ 0 $ 3,775,000 $ 4,675,000 $ 3,340,000
Shiancoe, Odai Vikings $ 2,100,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 3,200,000
Kelly, Reggie Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 2,200,000 $ 3,200,000
Miller, Zach Raiders $ 370,000 $ 965,000 $ 5,174,880 $ 5,544,880 $ 3,139,130
Cooley, Chris Redskins $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 90,000 $ 11,695,000 $ 3,028,333
Lee, Donald Packers $ 1,600,000 $ 0 $ 1,366,720 $ 2,966,720 $ 2,881,720
Utecht, Ben Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 5,040 $ 4,005,040 $ 2,671,706
Clark, Dallas Colts $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 45,000 $ 11,650,000 $ 2,483,333
Shockey, Jeremy Saints $ 1,925,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,425,000 $ 2,425,000
Clark, Desmond Bears $ 1,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 3,506,720 $ 2,340,056
Royal, Robert Bills $ 1,675,000 $ 2,500,000 $ 152,160 $ 1,827,160 $ 2,327,160
Campbell, Dan Lions $ 1,800,000 $ 0 $ 75,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 2,315,000
Crumpler, Alge Titans $ 1,200,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 2,706,720 $ 2,056,720

Is Gonzales the top TE, hear are his stats to compare, so OD is not Gonzales. More yards and lots more TD's.

GONZALEZ’S NFL STATISTICS
RECEIVING
Year Team G-S No. Yds. Avg. LG TD
1997 Kansas City 16-0 33 368 11.2 30 2
1998 Kansas City 16-16 59 621 10.5 32 2
1999 Kansas City 15-15 76 849 11.2 73 11
2000 Kansas City 16-16 93 1,203 12.9 39 9
2001 Kansas City 16-16 73 917 12.8 36 6
2002 Kansas City 16-16 63 773 12.3 42 7
2003 Kansas City 16-16 71 916 12.9 67 10
2004 Kansas City 16-16 102 1,258 12.3 32 7
Totals 127-111 570 6,905 12.1 73 54

TE in 2008 stats - from ESPN receiver ranking
RNK NAME REC YDS AVG YPG LNG TD FUM LST
12 Tony Gonzalez TE, KAN 96 1058 11.0 66.1 35 10 0 0
25 Jason Witten TE, DAL 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 0 0
32 Owen Daniels TE, HOU 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 2 1
35 Chris Cooley TE, WAS 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 3 2
36 Dallas Clark TE, IND 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 2 1

and TE ranking from nfl.com for 2008,
Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Tony Gonzalez KC TE 96 1,058 11.0 66.1 35 10 10 0 67 69.8 0
2 Chris Cooley WAS TE 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 7 0 43 51.8 3
3 Jason Witten DAL TE 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 14 1 50 61.7 0
4 Dallas Clark IND TE 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 13 0 41 53.2 2
5 Owen Daniels HOU TE 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 10 0 46 65.7 2
6 Antonio Gates SD TE 60 704 11.7 44.0 34 8 8 0 39 65.0 1
7 Bo Scaife TEN TE 58 561 9.7 35.1 44 2 4 1 29 50.0 1
8 Zach Miller OAK TE 56 778 13.9 48.6 63T 1 16 1 32 57.1 0
9 John Carlson SEA TE 55 627 11.4 39.2 33 5 10 0 36 65.5 0
10 Greg Olsen CHI TE 54 574 10.6 35.9 52 5 6 1 31 57.4 2
11 Jeremy Shockey NO TE 50 483 9.7 40.2 26 0 4 0 30 60.0 2
12 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 48 535 11.1 33.4 54 3 7 1 32 66.7 0
12 Heath Miller PIT TE 48 514 10.7 36.7 22 3 4 0 29 60.4 1
14 Billy Miller NO TE 45 579 12.9 38.6 41 1 11 1 30 66.7 0
15 Kellen Winslow CLE TE 43 428 10.0 42.8 30 3 3 0 25 58.1 1
16 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE 42 596 14.2 37.2 40 7 12 1 30 71.4 0
17 Desmond Clark CHI TE 41 367 9.0 22.9 35 1 5 0 18 43.9 1

and then ODs stats from nfl.com
Season Team Receiving Rushing Fumbles
G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost
2008 Houston Texans 16 16 70 862 12.3 35 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 1
2007 Houston Texans 16 16 63 768 12.2 29 3 -- -- -- -- -- 4 3
2006 Houston Texans 14 12 34 352 10.4 33T 5 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
TOTAL 167 1,982 11.9 35 10 0 0 0.0 0 0 6 4


Overall, sure be fair and be realistic, OD, you have good competition to make the team now.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

I


So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

When I was writing that sentence, that popped into my head and I thought about tossing in a qualifier. But, honestly, I would be surprised (not to mention very disappointed) if there was no labor agreement before the start of the off-season. The biggest problem I foresee is that the owners have more leverage (the severe restrictions on player movement and lack of a salary floor in uncapped year) but the NFLPA has a new boss and Demaurice Smith probably doesn't want to start his career being known as the guy who gave up what they got in Gene Upshaw's final negotiations (which turned out to be a windfall as he played big owners against small owners instead of against him). That worries me a little. But there's too much for both sides to lose here. So I'm keeping my fingers crossed hoping for a painless resolution even though a protracted struggle with an uncapped 2010 might benefit my team.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

'twas interesting.

[kravix]

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by kravix

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

Sorry, I was a bit confusing there. The rift was/is between the owners, but I've read a few articles that said Upshaw did a good job during the last round of negotiations to keep the focus on the owners rift between each other to make it more difficult for them to present a united front and bargain better against the players, which may have been how the players came away like bandits in that last round of CBA negotiations.

[cland]

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cland

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by barrett

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

This is exactly how I see the situation. I think OD's yardage total is highly misleading in relation to his true value. I hear people like Lance Zurlein saying ''well you have to pay him what he wants anyway because those are his numbers.'' I say no you don't.

I say if you want to run a top-notch organization you don't overpay anybody if you don't have to. Personally, I will lose some respect for Rick Smith if he caves in to OD's demands. Because both Smith and Kubiak know he's not worth what he's asking for.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by barrett

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

#4 option? who are the three people you have in front of him?

AJ most certainly.

I am assuming you are including Slayton in there. He definitely had a great rookie year, but he needs to show he can continue that. Also, I guess what number slayton is depends on the situation. 3rd and 1, i got no problem saying he is top 2 options, 3rd and 7? not so sure.

You could go with walter, but i think daniels is a better option than him, and at no worse even with him.

also you have to think about positions when you make these decisions. if daniels is as good as your #2 wide receiver then he is worth much, much more than that #2. Given our scheme, daniels is often going to get matched up with a line backer since he is a tight end, which means there will often be a mismatch, you have to take that into account, and if they put a db on him, that opens up other options for the offense that wouldnt normally be there. again though, please list the three guys you have ahead of daniels. (schaub does not count)