KC Joyner Hearts Fred Bennett [ESPN the Mag]

[Keith]

FRED BENNETT
CB, Texans
To experts who say Dunta Robinson is the best corner in Houston, think again. Bennett is not only better than Robinson, the stats say he was the premier corner in the league last season. The 24-year-old Bennett, a fourth-round pick in 2007, actually had better metrics in his eight starts than any numbers Robinson has posted in his four-year career. Bennett's 4.7 overall YPA led the league among corners with 60-plus attempts, and opposing WRs gained only 67 total yards on the 24 combined medium, deep and bomb passes he faced. With pass-happy teams like the Steelers, Colts and Browns on Houston's sked in 2008, Bennett's name will be on everyone's lips.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3493682

Click the link above to read the other three players Joyner luvs as busting out this year, or wait for it in your 7/28 issue of ESPN the Magazine.

I think Bennett did a terrific job last year as a rookie, and shoot yeah I am optimistic about his future... but I seen it with my eyes when I say that the pre-injury Dunta is a better pure talent than Bennett.

Joyner gets a little too happy with his number crunching over his eyeballs sometimes (didn't he try to use stats once to prove how David Carr really didn't suck?), but at least the numbers show something good here.

[ArlingtonTexan]

I like the attempt to provide an "objective" messure by Joyner and Football Outsiders, but unlike baseball where a hit is a hit, all tackles and blocks are not the same thing and can't be treated as such.

That said, Bennett played well (better than I expected), but was not the "premier" corner in the league.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

I like the attempt to provide an "objective" messure by Joyner and Football Outsiders, but unlike baseball where a hit is a hit, all tackles and blocks are not the same thing and can't be treated as such.

That said, Bennett played well (better than I expected), but was not the "premier" corner in the league.

When Deion Sanders was the best CB in the league, was he considered a hitter? No it about playing the ball, and I am sorry Dunta is does not appear to have the best ball skills, he is a super talent and I am not saying Bennett is better as a CB, just that they are different type players and both types can be successes.

[ArlingtonTexan]

Originally Posted by painekiller

When Deion Sanders was the best CB in the league, was he considered a hitter? No it about playing the ball, and I am sorry Dunta is does not appear to have the best ball skills, he is a super talent and I am not saying Bennett is better as a CB, just that they are different type players and both types can be successes.

Well Sanders in terms on his coverage skills is arguably the best ever. One thing that is difficult to measure in terms of corners is how many fewer times does a team even bother to throw your way, not just what you do when an attempt is thrown your way (which what Joyner did in this case).

Overall, I understand that they are different and think that is best that they are. Can't wait until Dunta proves healthy.

[Bigtinylittle]

I remember reading that Sanders used to play off receivers quite a bit sometimes, hoping to lure the QB into throwing to his man. That's scary good.

[NBT]

Still it's good to see some of these eastern writers start to pick up on how far the Texans have come along in just 2 short years.

I look for the pass defense, and the run defense to be much improved this year.

I think Bennet will continue to improve.

What I am wondering about now is whether or not Schaub is the QB we need to take us to that next level. Not knocking the kid, just need to see more than we were able to last year.

[dadmg]

For what its worth, the game charters at Football Outsiders are in agreement with Joyner on this. From the Texans chapter of their book Pro Football Prospectus 2008 (very interesting read, btw, although i liked the essays better last year):

Sometimes an injury - even to a key player - can have a silver lining. Such was the case with cornerback Dunta Robinson. The blow from his midseason injury was greatly softened by the wholly astonishing play of rookie Fred Bennett. Stepping into the starting lineup for Robinson in Week 9, Bennett not only outplayed the former first round pick he replaced - he outplayed most every corner in the league. Bennet led the league in Adjusted Yards per Pass and was second in Success Rate. He was at his best when covering the opposition's top reciever, allowing 4.0 Adjusted Yards per Pass with a 63 percent Success Rate (compared to 7.8 and 61 percent for Robinson, or 10.4 and 36 percent for Demarcus Faggins). He wasn't perfect - he needs to improve his tackling - but if Bennett's rookie performance is for real, and Robinson is able to return to full effectiveness in the second half of the season, the Texans will turn a historical weakness into a team strength.

To put this into more context, Bennet ranked 2nd in the NFL last year in their success rate statistic and first among corners (just ahead of Nnamdi Asomoghua, who was targeted so few times they had to change their minimum numbers...talk about a shutdown corner) and Dunta ranked 9th, up from 20th in 2006 and 41st in 2005.

Additional note: they also note that "C.C. Brown was not a favorite of our game charters, who noted his tendency to get lost in zone coverage and his poor tackling form in run support - the latter being his supposed strength."

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

One thing that is difficult to measure in terms of corners is how many fewer times does a team even bother to throw your way, not just what you do when an attempt is thrown your way (which what Joyner did in this case).

FO also has stats on that, and our new addition Reeves was targeted an absurd 107 times last year and his success rate on those was only 47% (ranked 53rd in the league. And for the ragging they do on Bennett for run support, Reeves ranked 80th in the league with a paltry 17% success rate in run support. Robinson and Bennett were 25th and 29th with 55 and 54%. Faggins numbers in run support are very similar to Reeves (he ranked 78th) and the average Faggins tackle in run support occured 11.2 yards from the line of scrimmage (10.8 for Reeves.) Dunta was one of the tops in the league with his average stop coming 4.4 yards from the line of scrimmage, ranking him up there with some of the top linebackers.

[KJ3]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

That said, Bennett played well (better than I expected), but was not the "premier" corner in the league.

well if the numbers are there to back it up what do you have against them? stats don't tell the whole story, sure enough...but there is reason why they are kept!

Originally Posted by NBT

What I am wondering about now is whether or not Schaub is the QB we need to take us to that next level. Not knocking the kid, just need to see more than we were able to last year.

how many games do you give before you decide?

Originally Posted by dadmg

For what its worth, the game charters at Football Outsiders are in agreement with Joyner on this. From the Texans chapter of their book Pro Football Prospectus 2008

link?

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by KJ3

link?

Link to Football Outsiders

[ArlingtonTexan]

Originally Posted by KJ3

well if the numbers are there to back it up what do you have against them? stats don't tell the whole story, sure enough...but there is reason why they are kept!

I am not convinced that many (not all) stats kept are reflective of good or bad play. I do find both Joyner and football outsiders insteresting in looking at a game differently, but not better than people who have a good eye for the game. The flaw is the attempt to make everything quantifiable, somethings are not.

Overall, if I think the method is flawed, but yields a result that I like that does not override my feeling the method is flawed.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by KJ3

link?

It's from their annual book, so i couldn't link, only quote.

[kravix]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

I am not convinced that many (not all) stats kept are reflective of good or bad play. I do find both Joyner and football outsiders insteresting in looking at a game differently, but not better than people who have a good eye for the game. The flaw is the attempt to make everything quantifiable, somethings are not.

Overall, if I think the method is flawed, but yields a result that I like that does not override my feeling the method is flawed.

you are right.

Its like that commercial. 90% of all statistics can be made to say anything 60% of the time.

Stats need to be compared against tons of other factors to really make a point.

Take Reeves. He played opposite Newman, one of the better shut down corners in the league. His breakdown doesnt reflect that. He had one of the worst safeties in the league supporting him over the top. Stats dont reflect that.

Look at the Denver corners. They are an insane tandem. One of them has to come up on the short end of the stick stats wise. That doesnt mean he isnt a good corner.

[KJ3]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

I remember reading that Sanders used to play off receivers quite a bit sometimes, hoping to lure the QB into throwing to his man. That's scary good.

put yourself in the qb's perspective (if you haven't already), this guy is actually daring you to throw. if you don't you're a punk, if you do you're in trouble.

Originally Posted by kravix

you are right.

Its like that commercial. 90% of all statistics can be made to say anything 60% of the time.

Stats need to be compared against tons of other factors to really make a point

like that bennett had petey faggins playing across from him and brown or demps over the top? our defensive backfield wasn't exactly chock full of stellar players when bennett came into the mold. roy williams sucks but he makes pro bowls somehow.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by kravix

you are right.

Its like that commercial. 90% of all statistics can be made to say anything 60% of the time.

Stats need to be compared against tons of other factors to really make a point.

Take Reeves. He played opposite Newman, one of the better shut down corners in the league. His breakdown doesnt reflect that. He had one of the worst safeties in the league supporting him over the top. Stats dont reflect that.

Look at the Denver corners. They are an insane tandem. One of them has to come up on the short end of the stick stats wise. That doesnt mean he isnt a good corner.

I agree with this. Statistics are overrated. A good eye is more important. A good eye for talent comes from a long process of learning to understand what makes up talent. Football is a very complicated sport. I think the the main problem Casserly had is that compared to other GMs he just didn't really have a good eye for talent. And by that I mean not only how good someone HAS BEEN, but also how likely they will be to be good in the future. Of course, it's a guessing game even for the best of coaches and GMs, but the guys with the best eyes will tend to be the ones with the best quesses. One of the things that makes me so optimistic about the future of the Texans is that Kubiak and Smith DO seem to have that eye.

[KJ3]

fred bennett:
2007 14 games played, 8 started, went for 3 interceptions and 47 yards returning, 14 passes deflected, 2 forced fumbles, 54 tackles with 8 assists.
according to: http://www.pro-football-reference.co...B/BennFr99.htm

2 rookies had more int's, 1 had more pass deflects, he led forcing fumbles, around 4th in tackles but for all these numbers in only 8 games started i think they shine a little brighter. plus he did this with little to no help, after being thrust into the spotlight with dunta going down and after an early-season hamstring issue. there are a lot of factors supporting him booming next season too.

like help across, behind and in front from the d'line. like a year under his belt. like his size and speed, not to mention that he plays with intensity and...dare i say....dunta-esque heart. ray rhodes and john hoke. like a full season to accumulate stats.

stats don't tell the whole story, factors matter, and all that...but i suppose you paint the picture you want to see. i see bennett as a good, young cornerback with elite size and speed, nice ballskills, a fiery competitor, and all the reason in the world to turn into something unbelievable behind an ever-developing supporting cast.

[kravix]

Originally Posted by KJ3

roy williams sucks but he makes pro bowls somehow.

So do overrated rookie QB's with just over 2k yards and 50% completion percentages.

I hate that the Probowl is more popularity than talent. Neither on of those guys is going to make the All Pro team though.

[KJ3]

be fair though, vince-anity backed his way in right? he was an alternate and the usual suspects didn't show? it's not like he's just getting popularity probowls like horsecollar-man.

still, both newman and williams are better db-mates than faggins and any safety we have. i'm just trying to level the "factors" out to make the statistics that have been given about bennett seem a little more "telling".