Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.
Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.
I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.
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Plenty of guys in the NFL make "magic" plays consistently. Rothleisberger has made a career out of it. Rodgers just took his team to the playoffs on a magic play, and he does it regularly. Andrew Luck is getting annoyingly good at it too.
The big difference from the college to NFL is that in the NFL, 90% of those magic plays involve a QB escaping or staying alive in the pocket, and then completing a pass downfield. They rarely involve a QB escaping and then running. I have no idea which best describes Manziel as I've watched less than 2 games worth of him combined (never more than a quarter or so at a time).
The other difference is you cannot build an NFL offense on off-schedule plays. You have to be good enough on the normal plays (just like you are saying Keith), or it won't matter how good you are on the special plays. That was obviously Keenum's problem. He made the off schedule plays but couldn't make the normal ones that keep an NFL offense moving while you wait for big plays.