Official Divisional Playoff Round - Texans @ Chiefs Game Thread, 1/12/2020
 

The Texans go onto the second round (divisional) of the playoffs this Sunday in an afternoon game that begins at 2:05 pm CST. The Texans are coming off a first round win over the Buffalo Bills in OT 22-19 last Saturday. They will face the #2 seed KC Chiefs who had a bye last week and rested up.

Kansas City forecast is calling for chilly Saturday night with an 8º low but it should warm up to mid-30's around game time.

The Texans and Chiefs met once during the regular season in KC with the Texans prevailing 31-24. The Chiefs were hobbled and missing quite a few pieces in that game. Not so this time as they have everyone back (and then some) and are in reasonably good health. They are on a bit of a roll having won their last 6 regular season games.

For the Texans, I think they need to be in the right mindset to have a chance. Are they all patting themselves on the back for having defeated the Bills or are they anxious to get on with it and take care of the next bit of business? Gotta think the Chiefs are rarin' to go but Watt and Watson prevent me from going with a Chiefs blowout. I see it:

Chiefs 27, Texans 24

The Texans are 5-5 all time vs. the Chiefs, 0-1 in the playoffs.

The Texans have made it to the divisional round 3 other times and yet to win. This will be their 2nd trip to the divisionals with Bill O'Brien at the helm.

A Houston team hasn't been to the conference championship game since the Luv ya Blue days.....

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TV = CBS (channel 11 local), 2:05 pm CST, Sunday, 1/12/20

Announcers = Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

The line = Chiefs by 9½ to 10½

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Other weekend playoff games:

Saturday (late afternoon) = Minnesota @ San Francisco, 3:35 pm CST, NBC

Saturday (night) = Tennessee @ Baltimore, 7:15 pm CST, CBS

Sunday (night) = Seattle @ Green Bay, 5:40 pm CST, FOX

The victory we had earlier in the RS against the Chiefs is practically meaningless today because the Chiefs had so many injuries including to their best players MaHomes and left tackle (blind side) Fischer.
How Buffalo jumped up on us by 16 points is still a mystery to me but if we have that kind of start in KC Sunday it's all over before the first quarter ends.
Hope I'm wrong but I see the Chiefs winning by two TDs.
Ravens are favored over the Titans by the same margin as our game which I don't think is gonna happen. I predicted the Titans victory over the Pats and I expect them to play the Ravens tough this weekend.
Inclement weather is predicted for Baltimore this weekend and if that's the case Derrick Henry will be even tougher than normal to stop.
Yea I do see the Titans as the dark horse in these 2020 NFL P/Os.

Keep in mind, the Texans fell behind the Chiefs in their first meeting, 10-0 before roaring back by halftime.

The two keys to me are: 1) can the Texans sustain a running game with Hyde and Johnson? This is the major weakness of the Chiefs and if the Texans have success running the ball, that will open up the passing offense enough to stay with KC. 2) Can the Texans scheme a way to limit Kelce and Hill? If the answer is no, the Texans are dead meat. If the answer is yes, they can possibly stay with KC or pull off the upset.

Andy Reid teams have suffered some historic playoff chokes over the years, even at Arrowhead, so don't presume they are going to blow the Texans out if the Texans bring their "a" game. Sure, the Chiefs are favored and rightly so. The question is which Texans will show up and whether the ghosts of playoff chokes past will visit the Chiefs.

The Ravens are all-time historical great with a lead. They pile on points with a lead like no NFL team I've ever seen. It's because their aggressive/big play offense comes from the running game. The Titans are a terrible passing team (not Buffalo terrible, but still terrible). If Baltimore gets up early they might win by 50. If Tennessee stays close then the game might last 2.5 hours with 80 combined rushing attempts.

I don't have a clue what the Texans will do.

The Texans only have two modes:

1) Get blown out in embarrassing fashion.

2) Keep it close and win in the fourth quarter on some Watson miracle escape. The Atlanta win was the only comfortable win all year. Even in that game, they fell behind early.

And even though they will do one of those two things I still can’t predict which one better than 50/50.

Some stats that probably don't mean much:

The Texans had 8 games this year that they went into as the underdog.

They went 4-4 straight up in those games.

They went 5-3 ATS in those games (the slight difference was the New Orleans game where they lost straight up 30-28, but covered the 7 pt spread).

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As an underdog of 3 pts. or more, they went 4-3 straight up but 5-2 ATS.

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So, a case can be made that they play slightly better when they enter the game as the underdog. The reciprocal of that is that they play slighty worse when they are the favorite. They are currently 8-8-1 ATS (including playoffs).

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Their largest spread as an underdog was 9½ pts. - the Week 17 game vs. Titans where they rested. They, of course, lost the game by 21 pts, 35-14. They are currently 10 pt dogs to the Chiefs.

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The Baltimore game, the pathetic Denver game and the Week 17 Tennessee game were the only games they lost by more than one score. They couldn't even get garbage time points vs. the Ravens......

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Like I said, all this probably doesn't mean much and it is why I tune in every Sunday to see how it plays out. What's behind door #3 this week?

If a miracle happens and both the Texans and Titans win their games, the Texans would host the AFC Championship Game for the first time. The last time Houston hosted an AFC Championship Game, it was 1962 when the Oilers hosted the classic double-overtime game against the Dallas Texans which became the Kansas City Chiefs the following year. Back then, it was the AFL Championship before the league merged with the NFL and became the AFC.

Heck, the last time Houston hosted an AFC Championship, JFK was still alive and our young were grooving to "The Twist".

So staying with the theme of R&R/R&B tradition and history:
"The Twist" was of course popularized by the one and only Chubby Checker, but he was not the author who would be Hank Ballard, a great R&B singer and writer in his own right.

In a mediocre season the Texans still beat 2 of the 3 other remaining AFC teams, and 4 of the other 5 playoff teams. This team is not great but they can absolutely win any game.

When you combine that with my permanently low expectations about this team, I enter Sunday's game with genuine positive feelings and nothing to lose.

The 10 pt spread just seems outrageous to me. I'll be on the Texans heavily in the simulated sportsbook I play at. As I've noted previously, I've not had a good year, so I hope I don't jinx them....

If I was OB, I'd be really laying on the "no respect"/underdog angle to the team. I'm expecting a good, close and hard fought game but if the Texans don't show up, well, I'm afraid it won't be the first time a Houston team has let me down....

Can you imagine what it will be like if the Texans pull off the upset? This city would go nuts. Love would be in the air. New bandwagons would need to be constructed. All gripes against OB would be forgiven and he would get an extension.... eheh....

Usually the saying is "you're not as good as your best or as bad as your worst."

We are the opposite. We are every bit as bad as our worst performances (Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo 1st Half). And we are as good as our best (NE, KC). We could put up either this week. I have no problem with the point spread because if we lose I am betting we lose bad. I'd say a 10+ point victory for KC is the most likely outcome. I'd say us winning is the 2nd most likely outcome.

Titans still lead, 14-6, at the half but the Ravens appear to be slowly putting things together. Best news for the Titans is that the lead allows them to keep feeding Henry the ball where he could wear out the Ravens while milking the clock.

I don’t know who the hell is going to win this game, but, sadly, if you’re taking a long-term view, the Titans look really, really good.

I write this with 7 minutes left in the 3rd, 14-6.

Titans stop Lamar on 4th and inches for the second time tonight. Henry takes the ball down to the six-yd line then throws a jump pass for the TD. 21-6 Titans now. Lamar is super-pissed. They said during the first half that Lamar was obsessed about his playoff exit last year. That's gotta be huge in his head right now. Not too late for a comeback but that collar is getting tighter.

Strip sack of Lamar. Titans run it to the 1 where Tannehill takes it himself. 28-6, Tennessee. Ravens are stunned.

Titans are definitely Saturday Night's team.

He follows that up by immediately holding the ball forever and fumbling. He’s awesome in a full offense, but in obvious passing downs he’s as bad as any starter in the league. Half the balls are ducks and half are behind guys or at their feet.

As a team they’re front runners who pour it on with a lead but can’t play from behind. They’re honesty just a better version of the titans. Whoever scored first won this one.

Also is it possible this was the Titans for years if they hadn’t wasted half a decade on Marriota? Just getting mediocre play from a journeyman has them winning playoff games. It’s hilarious how teams won’t admit when a QB is bad.

And another wounded duck and this one gets picked.

Jackson's a better thrower than Josh Allen but he's let some bad breaks early on snowball into a disaster. Not too late to comeback but they need everything to go right from here, including a TD on this possession. ehhhhhh...oops.

They're emptying Empty Bank Stadium...LOL

That, and that they wasted time on DeMarco Murray when they have had Derrick Henry for four seasons now.

I don’t know how I forgot Allen so quickly. He is infinitely better in all passing situations than Allen.

Some extra incentive now for the Texans - win and they host the AFC Championship. Of course, the Chiefs have the same motivation.

Impressive performance by our fellow AFC South rival Titans in beating the Ravens - a #6 seed on the road taking out the #1 seed, 28-12. Titans played them perfectly and didn't turn the ball over. Ravens were off their game and turned the ball over 3 times. I liked Vrabel's post game comment that the Ravens had been using "shock and awe" to get ahead of opponents and win games. The Titans were having none of that.

FiveThirtyEight now has the Chiefs as the slight favorite to win it all. How things change...... My goodness, the Texans certainly have an opportunity in front of them......

I'm hearing Fuller will play but won't be 100%......

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Updated weather for KC has a high of 40ºF. 20% chance of precip.

When is he ever? I'm starting to call him "Bambi" and not because he reminds me of Lance Alworth.

Gametime!

Texans won the toss and will receive.

Pass to Fuller gets the 1st down on 3rd and 7.

RT Clark injured on the next play.

Kaboom! Watson hits a wide open Stills for a 54-yard TD!

Texans 7, Chiefs 0

11:59 left in the 1st qtr.

I’ve heard all week about the chiefs defensive improvement. The broadcast said how good they were weeks 11-16. I went and looked and they played chargers twice, Raiders, Denver, New England. So their improvement coincided with playing a bunch of bad offenses.

Woohoo!

Chiefs go 3-and-out and then Mingo blocks the punt! Lonnie Johnson picks it up and runs it in for the 10 yard TD.

Texans 14, Chiefs 0

10:06 left in the 1st qtr.

It would be hard to have a better start....

Texans have the ball again and are facing 3rd and 11 at midfield.

Watson sacked. Texans will have to punt.

Punt is muffed! Texans get it at the Chiefs 6 yard line!

Pass to Fells gets the 4 yard TD!

Texans 21, Chiefs 0

1:21 left in the 1st qtr.

Goodness. Still a lot of game left - gotta keep the heat on....

Reid blows up Hill on a deep ball and the pass goes inc. Hill shaken up...

Chiefs fixin' to punt again.

1:05 left in the 1st qtr.

Trying not to jinx this.

It seems like we’re playing well.

What a perfect legal hit. I haven't cheered a big hit without slight guilt about the guys brain in years. That was perfect shoulder to ribs.

Who the hell knows where this game's going but it sure is nice not to be in a 30 point hole in the first quarter.

Turns out sort of being on the opposite end of that is somewhat more enjoyable. Good to know.

Reid just lit that little mofo right up.

Carter brings the punt back to the Houston 49. Texan's ball.

Watson gets the 1st down on a rollout but holding brings it back, -10 yards. 3rd and 11 coming up.

Pass to Hop gets the 1st down.

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Dump off to D Johnson goes to the Chiefs 12, 1 yard short of the 1st down. Texans going for it on 4th and 1.

Texans change their mind and will go for the FG.

31-yarder by Fairbairn is good.

Texans 24, Chiefs 0

10:54 left in the half.

Hardman has a good return on the ensuing kickoff. Brings it all the way back to the Texan 42. 58 yards on the return.

Pass to Kelce goes to the Texan 17.

Pass to Williams goes for the TD. 17 yards.

That didn't take long.

Texans 24, Chiefs 7

9:55 left in the half.

Texans go 3-and-out and will have to punt on 4th and 4.

Oh no. Fake punt - snap to Reid doesn't get the 1st down.

Chiefs take over at the Texan 33.

8:27 left in the half.