September 25, 2008
Don't Cast Away Schaub Just Yet
by Keith Weiland
Keith@IntheBullseye.com

You remember that movie Cast Away where Tom Hanks survives a plane crash, finds a friend in the form of a volleyball, and grows a really sweet beard? Well my favorite part of that entire 143 minutes comes at the point when Hanks, after four years of painfully staring at a pocket watch photo of his plain-faced movie fiancée Helen Hunt, comes ashore only to find that his grisly beacon of hope has married the guy who played “Big” in Sex and the City.

Awkward!

So it comes to pass that in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, Texans fans have been long staring at quarterback Matt Schaub, romantically hoping that he might be the light at the end of our expansion tunnel, that he might be the mirage that finally becomes our miraculous.

Two games into his second season in Houston though and Schaub has better resembled Ms. Hunt under center than any legitimate starting NFL quarterback. With a game in the bag, he is tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown, and with a 50.3 quarterback rating he has squandered more scoring opportunities than Clay Aiken in a Nevada brothel.

Forget for a moment the draft day compensation the Texans relinquished to acquire his services and instead focus only on what the team is paying for this kind of limp performance. Just in the second year of his contract, Schaub’s 2008 base salary is $4.95 million, the highest base salary of any player on the roster. Next year it jumps even higher, by another $2 million.

As if that weren’t daunting enough, the Texans have a decision looming on a $10 million option to extend Schaub’s contract another three years after the 2009 season.

If it sounds a tad familiar, it should. The Texans had a somewhat similar decision to make on David Carr’s contract a few months before the 2006 draft, choosing to award their first starting quarterback with a three-year, $8 million option.

Talk about awkward. I think we all know how that turned out.

Ideally, the Texans would like to make a decision on Schaub’s option before closing the books next year so as to prorate the option bonus across the final four years of the deal, not just the last three.

But what it also means is that if the team remains comfortable paying Schaub almost $7 million next year, then they’ll have ample time to assess his future with the team as long as they remain willing to ride out the bumps along the way.

I have been a big Schaub supporter from the beginning and will continue to be one in spite of his early performance this season. Our northern campus in Denver would agree. They tell us that it has taken their quarterbacks three years to really get this offensive system, and I think they might be right.

This year is Jay Cutler’s third year in the league, and he has been having a phenomenal start to the season. After a middling season last year, he’s averaging more than 300 yards per game with a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a QB rating of 110.6.

Previously, Jake Plummer needed three years in Denver to acquaint himself to the offense. He threw a league-high 20 interceptions in his second year as a Bronco only to quarterback them all the way to the conference championship the following year.

I’ll keep going one further. Brian Griese also improved in his third year in Denver, tossing just four picks after 14 the year previous, helping the Broncos vault from a six-win team in 1999 to 11 wins and a wild card berth in 2000.

Still, there is reason to be concerned with Schaub. He has much to improve upon - such as his poise in the redzone - but I still have his picture in my pocket watch. At least until next year.

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