"why should we pass up the higher-rated (offensive) prospect?"-Rick Smith

[TexanJedi]

In today's Chron:

“You have to look at value,” he said. “If it’s our turn to pick and we have an offensive player rated a lot higher than a defensive player, why should we pass up the higher-rated prospect?

“The idea is to improve the team any way we can. We’ve filled some holes in free agency, but we have a lot more work to get done in the draft. We want to take the best players we can get.”

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...t/6370631.html

I wonder what happens if Maclin falls, but I think this would apply more so if (when) the Texans trade down.

[papabear]

I don't disagree with this, but I think the key part of that quote is "an offensive player rated a lot higher than a defensive player". If there are two guys at the top of the draft board , one offense and one defense, and they are rated fairly closely....then I think we'll take the defensive guy even if he is rated slightly lower. If an offensive player is rated significantly higher you have to take him. The rub is trying to decide how big a gap there must be in whatever grading system they use to over-ride the obvious defensive need.

That's why I have liked our FA signings. Not so much because of the individual players, but because they give us some options at our weak areas that allow us the freedom to take any position on draft day because.

[idymoe]

Originally Posted by papabear

. If there are two guys at the top of the draft board , one offense and one defense, and they are rated fairly closely....then I think we'll take the defensive guy even if he is rated slightly lower. If an offensive player is rated significantly higher you have to take him. The rub is trying to decide how big a gap there must be in whatever grading system they use to over-ride the obvious defensive need.

I think you are absolutely right. I think the offensive player would have to be unquestionably better, not just incrementaly better, for the Texans to draft him. I'm thinking if maybe one of the OT's or Crabtree fell, but I don't look for that to happen. If Stafford or Sanchez is there, I think they could and would find a trade-down.

[mussop]

Cant wait to hear what all the "were drafting Defense only" posters have to say about this. My bet,,,,, its just smoke! Then they will bring up how we were 3rd in offense and nearly last in defense.

[kRocket]

Originally Posted by papabear

I don't disagree with this, but I think the key part of that quote is "an offensive player rated a lot higher than a defensive player". If there are two guys at the top of the draft board , one offense and one defense, and they are rated fairly closely....then I think we'll take the defensive guy even if he is rated slightly lower. If an offensive player is rated significantly higher you have to take him. The rub is trying to decide how big a gap there must be in whatever grading system they use to over-ride the obvious defensive need.

That's why I have liked our FA signings. Not so much because of the individual players, but because they give us some options at our weak areas that allow us the freedom to take any position on draft day because.

I am not sure the Texan F.O. is as keyed into defense as this board is. All this statement seems to indicate that they will not draft for need so much as take the BPA.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by mussop

Cant wait to hear what all the "were drafting Defense only" posters have to say about this. My bet,,,,, its just smoke! Then they will bring up how we were 3rd in offense and nearly last in defense.

My biggest dillemma is trying to decide whether or not we should draft Jeremy Maclin, should he be on the board. I think he's a much safer pick than most of the players available in the draft. Now, Matthews helps the defense more, if he's the guy most of us envision him to be. However, I think that there is a bit of risk that he might not become that Pro-Bowl OLB who is the modern day Julian Peterson.

Now, if we can trade down, by making another team believe that we will select Maclin, and garner an extra pick, then that mitigates the risk that Matthews would be at #15.

Basically, I want Clay, but I'll take Jeremy if I have to.

[gunslinger57]

Originally Posted by Roy P

My biggest dillemma is trying to decide whether or not we should draft Jeremy Maclin, should he be on the board. I think he's a much safer pick than most of the players available in the draft. Now, Matthews helps the defense more, if he's the guy most of us envision him to be. However, I think that there is a bit of risk that he might not become that Pro-Bowl OLB who is the modern day Julian Peterson.

Now, if we can trade down, by making another team believe that we will select Maclin, and garner an extra pick, then that mitigates the risk that Matthews would be at #15.

Basically, I want Clay, but I'll take Jeremy if I have to.

That was my first guess. I thought Rick was trying to convince the other GMs that if there's an offensive player that falls to 15 that the Texans will take him and not look back. That would hopefully "inspire" a GM to move up for someone like a Maclin and the Texans could grab an extra pick or even two is someone develops a mancrush on a player like Casserly did for Babin. If that's the case, looks like Rick may be thinking the LBs will fall a bit.

Of course, if they do take someone like Maclin and decide to have "The Greatest Show on Turf" ver. 2.0 I'm not totally averse to that. Make for some fun Sunday afternoons if nothing else.

[TexanJedi]

Originally Posted by gunslinger57

That would hopefully "inspire" a GM to move up for someone like a Maclin and the Texans could grab an extra pick or even two is someone develops a mancrush on a player like Casserly did for Babin.

Not to high jack the thread, but it was my understanding that Babin was a Capers wish list item, not necessarily Casserly.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by gunslinger57

Of course, if they do take someone like Maclin and decide to have "The Greatest Show on Turf" ver. 2.0 I'm not totally averse to that. Make for some fun Sunday afternoons if nothing else.

I would caveat my druthers here, if I went with Maclin in the 1st, the only other offensive position I'm drafting is a RB. The defense obviously needs help, so I may have to "reach" in the other rounds for a SS or a DE or whatever. However, I don't feel as guilty filling a need in a later round where the odds go down that I'm going to be getting a "playmaker" anyway. Bottom line, I have to have quality in the 1st round and perhaps quantity in the rest of the draft is acceptable.

[Roy P]

I keep going back to the 2004 draft. Imagine 3 players may be on the board when we select, one is WR Lee Evans, another is LB Teddy Lehman, and the last one is DE Will Smith. I'd be pretty surprised if Will smith lasts until our pick, but it is looking like he's sliding down draft boards and could be. I'm also having a hard time fathoming the idea that Evans would be on the board, but if he is, I would imagine that he'd be a pretty good player opposite of Andre Johnson.

Now Clay Matthews may be better than Lehman, and Maclin may not turn out to be as good as Evans, and Everette Brown may not approach Will Smith - I get that. However, those are the comparisons I'm coming up with before this draft and how I rated those 3 players in 2004.

Now, some may say that Evans isn't filling a need because we have a good offense. Others may scoff at the idea that we'd want to spend 1st round money on Will Smith since we just signed Antonio Smith. Therefore, the best way to improve the defense would be to get an athletic LB like Teddy Lehman.

Lehman 6' 1" 237lbs 4.53 - 40, 4.20 - shuttle, 6.85 - cone
Matthews 6' 3" 240lbs 4.62 - 40, 4.18 - shuttle, 6.90 - cone

[gunslinger57]

Originally Posted by TexanJedi

Not to high jack the thread, but it was my understanding that Babin was a Capers wish list item, not necessarily Casserly.

Yeah but it's easier to blame Casserly since he pulled the trigger on it. I still can't believe the deal they made for that stiff.

[painekiller]

Roy, I do not see how Maclin helps this team as much as one of the 1st round RBs.

1st the obvious, few WR much less #2 WR get 15 touches a game.

2nd Walters and Davis added up to a pretty solid WR. The Denver offense has not ever been a slot receiver offense. Two WRs, one with superstar numbers and a second solid WR and a TE have always been the passing game. I doubt Kubiak alters his system.

Give me a OL or RB in the 1st if you must but do not waste a pick on a WR who will not have a strong impact on this team.

[bckey]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Roy, I do not see how Maclin helps this team as much as one of the 1st round RBs.

Give me a OL or RB in the 1st if you must but do not waste a pick on a WR who will not have a strong impact on this team.

I agree. I really think OL or RB are the only positions that would be considered in the 1st round and only if they are rated higher than whats left on the defensive side. I've been saying that we need quality depth on the OL. I would love to see Alex Mack in a Texans Jersey. The guy can play center or guard. Walterfootball thinks he is a better prospect coming out of college than Nick Mangold. I'm not sold on Chris myers at C. I wouldn't be mad either if we grabbed Moreno.

[jppaul]

If I am taking a first round offensive player it is Beanie Wells or Moreno. We have more pressing offensive needs than reciever.

[nunusguy]

FWIW Shanahan-Kubiak-Gibbs never took a running back in the first round in all their time at Denver while they did take a couple receivers in the top round
during the Denver years.

[TexanJedi]

I was thinking, and as some have suggested already, might they have Pettigrew ranked in the top 12 on their draft board and would they take him after trading down ,assuming he is much more highly ranked than a defender that is?

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by TexanJedi

I was thinking, and as some have suggested already, might they have Pettigrew ranked in the top 12 on their draft board and would they take him after trading down ,assuming he is much more highly ranked than a defender that is?

I admit Pettigrew is a heck of a blocker, so good he is good enough to convert to OT IMO. But why do I want to spend a 1st round pick on a blocker, a speciality player IMO, when this draft has guys like:

Richard Quinn 6-4, 265 North Carolina
Dan Grankowski 6-5.5, 255 Maryland
Anthony Hill 6-5, 262 North Carolina State
John Phillips 6-5.5, 251 Virginia
Bear Pascoe 6-5, 251 Fresno State
Ryan Purvis 6-4, 260 Boston College

To name a few. Most of these guys are 2nd day guys and are considered blockers 1st.

Again I keep coming back to OL or RB being the only positions on offense that impact this team enough to be 1st rounders.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

FWIW Shanahan-Kubiak-Gibbs never took a running back in the first round in all their time at Denver while they did take a couple receivers in the top round
during the Denver years.

While in Denver they never had group as deep as AJ, Walters, Davis and Anderson. And Kubiak is on record having tried to get back into the 1st round to draft Laurence Maroney iirc. So Kubiak is willing to draft RB in the 1st.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Roy, I do not see how Maclin helps this team as much as one of the 1st round RBs.

1st the obvious, few WR much less #2 WR get 15 touches a game.

2nd Walters and Davis added up to a pretty solid WR. The Denver offense has not ever been a slot receiver offense. Two WRs, one with superstar numbers and a second solid WR and a TE have always been the passing game. I doubt Kubiak alters his system.

Give me a OL or RB in the 1st if you must but do not waste a pick on a WR who will not have a strong impact on this team.

I'm not a fan of going WR (or offense in the 1st round). I think the only way you do it is like Smith said, "If you rate the prospect MUCH higher."

But Maclin is hardly a wasted pick just because we are good at WR already. When comparing him to a 1st round RB, he probably has just as much impact. Any RB we take is going to be our #2 back and will do little more than spell Slaton and hopefully take the goalline carries. The problem though is that you don't play two RBs at once.

Maclin fills far more roles for our team. The biggest is that he helps a return game that struggled mightily last year. He returns punts and kicks for us. He plays the slot for a team that goes 3 and 4 wide on a regular basis. And he provides a fantastic deep threat opposite AJ. I'd say that is more impact then you will see from any #2 RB or interior OL (or OLB for that matter).

Now, with all of that said I hope we don't draft him. But if we can't trade down and it comes down to him or a RB (or any other position), I hope they go with whoever they rate higher as a player rather than the position that seems to be of greater need. Especially since we have no positions that are such a big need we must throw a 1st rounder at them.

[Keith]

First, I am NOT in favor of drafting a WR in the first round. In fact, related to our other Browns thread, if we really wanted a WR, I'd trade back in the first round and then send that pick for Braylon Edwards.

That all said.... here's three reasons why (in addition to any already mentioned above) a WR might happen in round one:

1. Kevin Walter is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after this season, new CBA or not. How much will it cost to re-sign him? How comfortable would the Texans be with Andre Davis, David Anderson, and Jacoby Jones vying for the WR2 role?

2. The Texans supposedly had a keen eye on selecting the Ted Ginn, Jr. family before the Dolphins surprisingly snatched him up just before they took Amobi Okoye. Granted, this was before Walter's breakout season in 2007, but then again, I refer you to point 1.

3. If the Texans were actually impressed with Ginn enough to consider drafting him, then maybe they see something similar in Jeremy Maclin. Personally, I think Maclin has some bust potential, but he could also be the player that becomes what they had always hoped Jacoby Jones would become.