Trade Dunta?

[NBT]

So let's assume Dunta doesn't sign his F-tagged contract? He won't get paid will he? And what is with the 7-15 deadline, will he be able to sign with some other team after that, or do we still have his rights?

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by NBT

So let's assume Dunta doesn't sign his F-tagged contract? He won't get paid will he? And what is with the 7-15 deadline, will he be able to sign with some other team after that, or do we still have his rights?

IIRC if we pull the offer, then he is an unrestricted FA. Funny thing is in the middle of training camp not to many teams have $9M of cap money available.

I am with edo, but i also want to add the guys who are here have to be doing the job well enough that we would not miss Dunta. It is stupid to cut a player who is better then the ones you are starting.

[superbowlbound]

While I agree that 9.9 mil for a crappy version of dunta is ridiculous, I'd much rather pay him than just let him walk because he pitched a fit. This team has let every single player that wanted to be elsewhere just go, as a gesture of goodwill in hopes of luring free agents. Well how has that worked out?

Besides, I think Dunta has to know that it's not in his best interest to hold out too too long. I'm thinking he shows up by the second week of preseason. He's gotta be looking at this season as a chance to audition for the rest of the league, and regardless of how much of the old scheme Bush is keeping, there will undoubtedly be new wrinkles that he'll have to learn, and a month of getting burned worse than usual certainly won't help him get paid.

Also, I've grown so tired of this situation, and have soured on Dunta so much, that I didn't even say anything to him when I saw him at the gas station a couple days ago. Seeing him actually made me angry and a little physically sick. I found that strange. He used to be my favorite.

[Keith]

I'm gonna predict that Dunta signs his tender this week. Julius Peppers has signed his, Karlos Dansby has signed his, Antonio Bryant has signed his... There are only three F-tagged players unsigned including Robinson. Terrell Suggs is supposedly close to a long-term deal. Like Dunta here, O.J. Atogwe is still waiting for what the Rams will do (though he has attended OTAs and mini-camp).

It wouldn't surprise me at all though if the Texans left Robinson with no choice but to sign his tender. And in retrospect, if there are still lingering concerns about Robinson's health, then he missed a golden opportunity to start putting those to rest by skipping OTAs. The team probably isn't likely to rescind the F-tag like the Seahawks did with Leroy Hill (mostly because the Texans didn't pick a CB in round 1 like Seattle did in picking a LB), but it's possible.

Hard to say what kind of offer Robinson would get on the open market this close to training camp. The $10 million guaranteed now with the possibility of still getting a huge bonus next season is not a bad option for him.

So to me, the drama will be whether the team really makes any final effort to sign Dunta long-term, but I just think it's a slim possibility. The Texans don't need the cap room, and the $10 million or so that will be guaranteed to Dunta, with a chance for roughly $12 million guaranteed next year as a 2nd-year F-tag... well, it's not the end of the world for Robinson, either.

And that should be okay for both sides, at least for this year. Cooler heads ought to prevail here, and imo fans lashing out against Dunta should probably take more of a wait-and-see position for the time being. Oh, and if I were Robinson, I'd probably find new representation if no long-term deal is signed by July 15, too.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by NBT

So let's assume Dunta doesn't sign his F-tagged contract? He won't get paid will he? And what is with the 7-15 deadline, will he be able to sign with some other team after that, or do we still have his rights?

The July 15 deadline is just to sign franchised players to new contracts - after that point no new deals can be negotiated until the end of the season. The franchise tender is still out there and will remain so.

[bckey]

Originally Posted by dadmg

The franchise tender is still out there and will remain so.

Unless the Texans decide to take it off the table. They may think that it might not be worth almost 10 million for a guy coming off injury. If he skips all of training camp and possibly pre-season he wouldn't even be ready for the first couple of regular season games. I wouldn't blame the Texans if they pull the franchise tag off the table after the 15th.

[Keith]

Stephanie has a new post on her convo with a Football Outsiders writer, and the writer is not very complimentary of Dunta Robinson.

By our statistics, Dunta Robinson was the Texans' worst corner last year. ...

Teams were successful (picking up 40% of the needed yardage to move the chains on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down) throwing the ball at him on 56% of their attempts. That placed Robinson 69th amongst corners. He allowed 8.9 yards per attempt -- that's 78th. He only broke up six of the 51 passes thrown at him. ...

http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2...ootball_o.html

More insight there on Jacques Reeves and Fred Bennett, too. Interesting stuff since stats are only part of the picture when it comes to evaluating cornerbacks.

I don't think anyone debates that Robinson was rusty coming back from injury last year. The debate is just how much better he will be in 2009 and beyond.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

..... Interesting stuff since stats are only part of the picture ......

Best sentence I've read all week. I don't need stats to tell me Dunta kinda sucked last year - I could see it with my eyes. Football Outsiders, KC Joyner, et al, while I respect their work, it is just another viewpoint - just another stat of many. I am a stathead myself but there's only so much that can be gleaned from stats....

Dunta supporters will tell you the team was 7-4 when he played. And that should count for something but it's not like Dunta was out there winning and losing those games by himself. They were also 4-2 when Adibi played so what does that say?

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Arky

Dunta supporters will tell you the team was 7-4 when he played. And that should count for something but it's not like Dunta was out there winning and losing those games by himself. They were also 4-2 when Adibi played so what does that say?

I'm a Dunta advocate, but I think that's an extremely weak argument. Then again, I roll my eyes whenever I hear how many "wins" a quarterback has. Pretty much the same argument and its a lame one no matter what. You pretty much nailed it: teams win, not individual players.

[nunusguy]

When D-Rob returned last year he was clearly only a shadow of hisself preinjury physically speaking, but nevertheless his rapid recover/rehab and return was remarkable and he was very positive for team chemistry, as usual.
But I dunno how D-Rob can be a positve element in the locker room this year, as by now it should be obvious to all that he's very bitter about the Texans.
I honestly dunno about giving this guy 10 million with whats been happening and given what also has to be significant doubt about his physical condidtion since they have not even seen him jog for months ? Guess we'll find out by midnight Wednesday though ?

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

Stephanie has a new post on her convo with a Football Outsiders writer, and the writer is not very complimentary of Dunta Robinson.



http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2...ootball_o.html

More insight there on Jacques Reeves and Fred Bennett, too. Interesting stuff since stats are only part of the picture when it comes to evaluating cornerbacks.

I don't think anyone debates that Robinson was rusty coming back from injury last year. The debate is just how much better he will be in 2009 and beyond.

Here's some more numbers from FO, for the corners talked about, for additional context:

Dunta Robinson
2005:
Pass Success Rate: 52% (41st in the league)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 7.7 (52nd)

2006:
Pass Success Rate: 55% (20th)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 7.0 (30th)

2007:
Pass Success Rate: 57% (9th)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 7.7 (51st)

2008:
Pass Success Rate: 44% (69th)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 8.9 (78th)

Jacque Reeves
2007 (First year with enough playing time to qualify):
Pass Success Rate: 47% (53rd)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 8.1 (56th)

2008:
Pass Success Rate: 54% (28th)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 8.0 (57th)


Fred Bennett
2007:
Pass Success Rate: 61% (2nd in the NFL)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 4.4 (1st)

2008:
Pass Success Rate: 46% (58th)
Adjusted Passing Yards/Attempt: 7.9 (52nd)

Here's what Ned Macey wrote about the Texans secondary in the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac:

"Both of Houston’s corners are question marks: one due to health, the other to inconsistency. For the second
consecutive season, franchise cornerback Dunta Robinson missed extensive time due to injuries. Robinson was
never physically right all year, and his performance suffered as a result. Still, Robinson has exceptional cover
skills and a track record of success. If he is fully healthy, he provides the Texans with an outstanding top cornerback.
After 2007, we felt that the Texans would have an outstanding cornerback duo because rookie Fred Bennett
dominated our charting statistics. By his second year, however, it was clear that teams had studied film and
figured out what kind of receivers and routes they could use to attack Bennett. As a result, Bennett was terrible
early on, and Gary Kubiak demoted him to nickelback after just three weeks, although Bennett did improve after
that. The one cornerback who started all 16 games — and is likely to be starting alongside Robinson in 2009
— was free-agent pickup Jacques Reeves, a league-average player who is reasonable on short stuff but gives
up too many big plays deep. The Texans increased their depth at the draft by using a fourth-round pick on New
Mexico’s Glover Quin, a physical corner who could excel in the slot, although some project him to eventually
be a safety. They also added undersized but speedy cornerback Brice McCain out of Utah in the sixth round.
At safety, the Texans have made good use of former New England cornerback Eugene Wilson. Wilson plays it
safe at times, but he is fundamentally sound in coverage. Nick Ferguson, on the other hand, was an unmitigated
disaster, average as a run defender but consistently abused in coverage. The Texans failed to find an impact upgrade
this offseason and will probably go with 2007 fifth-rounder Brandon Harrison as this year’s starter. He’s
better in coverage but could not beat out Ferguson last season. The other possibilities including moving Quin to
safety this season or hoping that seventh-round pick Troy Nolan out of Arizona State is ready to contribute as a
rookie. The Quin move is obviously more intriguing, and if he shifts to safety in training camp, it is clear that
the Texans realize they have a problem."

(since I'm quoting a large chunk of text, I feel obligated to put in a quick plug: the FO Almanac is available in PDF form on the Football Outsiders website for $12. I'm on page 185 of 558 so far: tis interesting stuff, as always)

[Bigtinylittle]

[QUOTE=dadmg;12218]
2008:
The one cornerback who started all 16 games — and is likely to be starting alongside Robinson in 2009
— was free-agent pickup Jacques Reeves, a league-average player who is reasonable on short stuff but gives
up too many big plays deep.

Reeves is probably the corner on the Texans who would benefit most from a stronger pass rush by our front seven. Long routes take a lot of time to develope, and with a strong rush, the time just isn't there.

To me, Robinson's greatest drawback is his height. I have seen taller receivers abuse him even when he had them covered. He's probably not the kind of guy you want covering a fade route to a 6'4" receiver in the end zone. This drawback is only going to get worse over time since the trend seems to be for new receivers into the league being taller and taller.

[Mike]

The Ravens locked up Suggs. Two more hours to get a deal done, and we all know that a deal with Dunta is not happening, not matter how much us eternal optomists have held out any hope.