Owen Daniels Contract Negotiations

[barrett]

Originally Posted by superbowlbound

I'm not disagreeing entirely with you, as I think you're pretty much correct, save a bit of the walter argument. While the numbers don't lie, and his TD numbers were better than Daniels, what? 4 times over? But I think you underestimate his value as a security blanket, especially given how small slaton is. You really don't want slaton having to catch too many balls with his back to the defense in the middle of the field. Daniels does a great job as an outlet, which further increases his value. a reliable guy that can play in the seams and stretch the field from the TE position is not that easily found. As a reliable outlet in the flats, he saves wear on the only solid back on this roster, and allows Matt to stay in a rhythm by completing passes rather than eating sacks or chucking it out of bounds. The fact of the matter is that Daniels is easily one of the best TE's in football, and when guys like LJ Smith and Jim Kleinsasser are nearly lapping him in terms of cap numbers, the dude is owed a raise. period.

Also, you say that Walter is a much better run blocker than daniels, but look at who he's blocking. Daniels is up against strong side defensive ends and linebackers, while walter is blocking #2 CB's. when there's an 80 lb difference between the defenders in question, that argument doesn't really hold water. Besides, Daniels is an adequate, willing run blocker, so I don't see that as much of an issue.

I agree with you here that he deserves a raise. I balk at how much out of gut reaction, but with my last post I went and looked at TE salaries and saw I was wrong about where they are at. It appears OD is not being unreasonable, and I hope he gets paid commensurate for what he does.

But I disagree regarding the blocking. Walter is often cracking in our run game and I have seen him stone LBs and be a willing speed bump for DL. OD on the other hand is often put in motion in the run game and is matched up heads up very rarely with a LB on the play side in our offense. Walter is a great run blocker and is far more eager for contact than daniels. But OD is a pass catching TE who is split off the line regularly so I have no problem with him not being a 6th OL in the run game. Honestly he 'blocks' more effectively by being a good receiver, spreading the field, and not tipping run or pass by being on the field than he does by actually blocking. But either way, I think Walter is a better option in the offense, and a very complete player. There are not many better WR2s in the NFL. Walter for a 7th rounder was probably our best trade ever.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by barrett

There are not many better WR2s in the NFL. Walter for a 7th rounder was probably our best trade ever.

Getting Walter was a brilliant move. I know he plays opposite Andre Johnson, but if you look back before he got here everyone was screaming that we needed a legitimate #2 to take some pressure off of Dre. Now that he's done that no one wants to give him credit for being a good WR (I'm not even going to put the #2 label on that). I'm not saying that playing alongside Dre doesn't help a ton, it does, but if it was so easy to operate across from Dre then why were our other receivers so bad before...besides the person throwing to them.

As far as blocking goes. Walter probably ranks higher as a blocker among WR's than Daniels does among TE's. I don't know that I would rate Walter as a better blocker straight up against OD though. OD has gotten much better as a blocker since he's been here, and I don't see any reason why his technique won't continue to improve.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by papabear

I'm not saying that playing alongside Dre doesn't help a ton, it does, but if it was so easy to operate across from Dre then why were our other receivers so bad before...besides the person throwing to them.

I think Walter is clearly more valuable to the Texans than Daniels. I think the offense itself is what makes Owen's stats look so good. I have the feeling that if HWSRN were still here, Owen's stats would be so much lower that he would probably be asking for less than 3 million and hoping like hell he could get it.

I think it is a mistake to look at what other TEs are getting. To me, Daniels is much more replacable than Schaub, Slaton, Andre Johnson, or Walters. In fact, we may already have his replacement on the team, at a HUGE savings over what Daniels is asking. In fact, if we would receive the compensation in talent that a "top five" tight end is supposedly worth, I would trade Owen in a heartbeat and take my chances with what we have now. It seems to me we could get a top notch DT or a top notch SS for what Daniels is asking.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

I think the offense itself is what makes Owen's stats look so good.

Is the offense the reason for it, or did Kubiak intentionally give the TE's bigger role as he began to see what a good one he had. Chicken or the egg thing, and there's no way to prove ones right and ones wrong really. Coaches have a system, but the details of the system change week to week. Kubiak wants to run the ball, but we weren't that succesfull with that until the line got together and we got a better running back...in what was supposed to be a "plug and play" offense for RB's that could succeed with low round talent.

I think it is a mistake to look at what other TEs are getting.

It could be a mistake to pay what other TE's are getting, but Daniels has every rite to ask for similar amounts. That's how the majority of contracts are determined in the NFL. Winslow and Clark have set the bar so to speak, whether we like it or not. If Owen was an older player I would probably be willing to drive him to the airport myself.

To me, Daniels is much more replaceable than Schaub, Slaton, Andre Johnson, or Walters. In fact, we may already have his replacement on the team, at a HUGE savings over what Daniels is asking.

Daniels likely is more replaceable than those guys, but that's a risky game to play; especially when a player is entering the prime of his career. No matter how much we like a rookie, it's always a crap shoot. Just because we had success with one late round TE doesn't mean we will with another. The Casey hype is getting a little out of hand IMO. I'm intrigued by him, and it's a great story because he's local. I hope he finds a place on the team and is very successful. The idea that a fifth round pick is going to come in and immediately replace 70 catches and 800+ yards is silly to me. It could happen, but that's something you can't depend on. I'm sure we would be just fine without Owen, but one other thing to remember is that Owen has worked hard at his blcoking since coming into the NFL to get where he's at now....which is only average at best. Casey has just as much, if not more, work to do in that department. If Casey was the starter we would likely revert to the days when the defense can tell what play we were running by which TE was in the game for a while.

In fact, if we would receive the compensation in talent that a "top five" tight end is supposedly worth, I would trade Owen in a heartbeat and take my chances with what we have now. It seems to me we could get a top notch DT or a top notch SS for what Daniels is asking.

No way you get a top flight DT. Those are way to rare in today's NFL. At this point ANY trade is very unlikely. If it was going to happen it would have happened at the draft. The only likely scenarios at this point are that we either agree to a long term deal with him, or he plays under the one year tender and we do it all over again next year...as either a RFA or FA depending on if there's a new CBA. If he's a FA next year then I would guess the chances of him being a Texan are very low.

[superbowlbound]

Barrett, I don't think I could agree with you more about the KW acquisition. Kevin Walter for a 7th round pick was on the same level as Luis Scola for Visilis Spinoulis. You're absolutely right. Walter is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Just last night, as a matter of fact, I was having a discussion with a dude at the bar about this very subject, and then the passing game as a whole. He was saying that Kevin Walter sucks, that he shows up for 3 games a year, and is useless the rest of the time. Then I spouted off his numbers. "Damn, that good, huh?" And I told him to name me 5 #2 WR's better than him, and he couldn't get past anquan boldin and wes welker.

PB, You said exactly what I was trying to say about OD/KW's blocking.

BTL, Yes, with a crappy quarterback, OD's numbers would be far less, but so would KW's and Slaton's. Dre's gonna get his anyway. The way I see it, the only serious deficiency that OD has is that he doesn't catch TD's, while KW does. Let's take a moment to consider something. Now I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, so I don't know how many of KW's td's were from 20 yds and out, but I think it's pretty safe to say that he scored most often from inside the red zone, yeah? The TE is traditionally a much bigger target in the red zone, and when you have a good one, he must be accounted for by the defense. Now you've got one of the 2 best receivers in football on one side, and a top tier TE in the red zone. Those are two guys that will definitely be accounted for. Perhaps Walter is able to get open a little more often in the end zone because he's the guy the other team decided was going to be the one that beat them, if he could do it. You pick your poison, and it's not unreasonable to think that perhaps, in the red zone, teams pick Walter

[barrett]

Walter's 8 TDs were 14, 5, 8, 7, 39, 60, 17, and 58.

So he found the endzone from all over the field and had a number of long catches on the year in addition to the TDs. Walter benefits from the overall offensive talent and beats man coverage just like Daniels benefits from the overall offensive talent and beats man coverage. But in the Redzone, OD has little to do with Walter's performance. Teams are not shading goalline coverage towards a guy who does not catch TDs. Rather I think both guys benefit hugely from AJ and Walter just does a better job of cashing in in the redzone.

Either way I think Daniels is more "replacable", but I sincerely hope we don't have to replace any positive working part on our roster unless we are getting back a haul in return.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by barrett

Teams are not shading goalline coverage towards a guy who does not catch TDs. Rather I think both guys benefit hugely from AJ and Walter just does a better job of cashing in in the redzone.

Either way I think Daniels is more "replacable", but I sincerely hope we don't have to replace any positive working part on our roster unless we are getting back a haul in return.

We aren't going to change anyone's mind here, but I couldn't disagree more. Daniels is a tight end with wr hands and playmaking ability. In my opinion, that is much more valuable than you are giving it credit for. Teams have to scheme for Daniels because he is such a good player AT HIS POSITION. Week in and week out most teams don't have to worry about having a tight end on the opposing team with OD's skill set, therefore when they are getting ready to play the texans, they have to take that into account and plan ways to try to neutralize him. When you add that to the fact that AJ is one of the 2 best WRs in the league, it is going to give defenses fits, and allows for Walter, who is a top notch #2 to take advantage of the situation (which he does). Having to account for OD's skill sets also likely helps the run game as well, as teams have to put a guy in coverage they might normally leave in the box.

You can't really think that you could take OD out, put a rookie or another unproven player in, and it wouldn't have a negative effect on this offense.

[papabear]

On the whole TD thing. I don't think you can say that a player isn't effective in goal line situations unless you can point to something tangible as to why. Without going back and looking at the tape it's hard for me to say. Maybe Daniels was open, but was often option 3 or 4 and the progression never got to him. Maybe he just couldn't get open. I think our problems in the redzone/goaline were a product of not running the ball well in those situations.

Andre Johnson TD's by year:
4
6
2
5
8
8

OD

5
3
2

You can see the improvement with Dre over the last few years, but even his TD numbers aren't as dominant the rest of his passing statistics. At least a handful of those came from farther out than the redzone too. No one would make an argument that Dre isn't as affective weapon in the red zone. My point is we just aren't that good down there, so I view it more of an incomplete grade than an actual limitation to his game.

[TheMatrix31]

I don't think we're at the point of our existence where we can say one player is replacable. Our biggest problem is consistency, and keeping a team together is the key to developing that consistency. Owen is much more, but at the very least, he's crucial security blanket for Schaub.

Gotta keep him.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cadams

We aren't going to change anyone's mind here, but I couldn't disagree more. Daniels is a tight end with wr hands and playmaking ability. In my opinion, that is much more valuable than you are giving it credit for. Teams have to scheme for Daniels because he is such a good player AT HIS POSITION. Week in and week out most teams don't have to worry about having a tight end on the opposing team with OD's skill set, therefore when they are getting ready to play the texans, they have to take that into account and plan ways to try to neutralize him. When you add that to the fact that AJ is one of the 2 best WRs in the league, it is going to give defenses fits, and allows for Walter, who is a top notch #2 to take advantage of the situation (which he does). Having to account for OD's skill sets also likely helps the run game as well, as teams have to put a guy in coverage they might normally leave in the box.

You can't really think that you could take OD out, put a rookie or another unproven player in, and it wouldn't have a negative effect on this offense.

I didn't say you could put a rookie in and not be hurt. I said I hope we don't have to replace any positive working part. We would take a hit by taking OD out of the lineup. How big is debatable, but whether we would take one is not.

[Keith]

Owen Daniels was on ESPN's First Take earlier today.

On his contract talks:
"...kinda still a little disappointed in the way things are going. Hopefully we can get something done before camp.

Houston is the place I want to be. I love playing for Coach Kubiak. I love the fans there. I love all my teammates. ..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oprH1bOTyn0

[WMH]

This has got to make Rick Smith cringed a little.....

From PFT:
Steelers tight end Heath Miller, who would have been a restricted free agent in March 2010 absent a new labor deal, nevertheless reeled in a six-year, $35.3 million deal prior to the final year of his rookie contract.