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#25
01-05-2020, 08:07 PM
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So, Minnesota gets it done in New Orleans. Color me suitably shocked. Kirk Cousins seems to be shedding some of his poor trends....
Seattle holds up in Philly. The Seahawks go to Green Bay next Sunday and will be playing after the Texans/Chiefs game. The Packers are currently favored by 4. The Vikings will head to Santa Clara to play the Niners in the late/afternoon Saturday game. Niners currently favored by 6½ to 7. Titans @ Ravens is Saturday night. I would not be surprised to see all four home teams win next weekend. That has happened before although I don't have the stats handy. Picking ATS is where it gets interesting - lots of points floating around out there.... 
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#26
01-05-2020, 09:59 PM
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I've got a question for you high rollers out there ?
I'm headed to Vegas this coming weekend so which of the casinos are known to be the most customer friendly or are the spreads virtually the same among the various casinos ?
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#27
01-05-2020, 10:23 PM
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Will Fuller can't catch. And I don't mean he can't catch by NFL standards. I mean he can't catch like a guy in a flag football game can't catch standards. And we need to find a guy who can take the top off like that regardless of if he can catch. With him on the field everybody else feasts because defenses fear a guy who catches 1 out of 3 deep balls more than the guy who catches 2 out of 3 8 yard curls. So the second Fuller steps on the field we get better. Fuller has played just over half the snaps (53%) so there is no small sample size either way. Watson without Fuller 89 passer rating. With Fuller 104. In Yards per play we currently rank 12th in the league at 5.7. With Fuller we jump up to top 5 and without him we drop to bottom third of the league. He is more vital to the big play offense we rely on than any of Hopkins/Stills/Johnson/Hyde. That doesn't make him better. It just means that we he does cannot be replicated by anyone else on the roster.
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#28
01-05-2020, 10:37 PM
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#29
01-05-2020, 11:27 PM
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The winning records for the home teams in the divisional round are very high because they are the #1 and #2 seeds coming off a bye week. So, on paper, these are all clearly the best two teams in their conference hosting lesser teams with the advantage of a week of rest. That's why it was such a big deal for the Patriots to finally not have this advantage every year.
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#30
01-06-2020, 12:43 AM
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The 10 Best Las Vegas Sportsbooks I think you'll probably find there's not that much difference in the juice/fees between the various establishments as long as you stick to the reputable joints... Saving a nickel or dime here or there is for those that do it all the time... Edit: Check this guide out, too.
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#31
01-08-2020, 09:01 PM
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FiveThirtyEight certainly looks a little different in the post-season. Guess who they have rated last among the 8 remaining teams? Eheh.
The Ravens are the heavy favorites to make it to the SuperBowl and win it.... Click the link and check out the probabilities....
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#33
01-09-2020, 12:10 AM
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#34
01-09-2020, 01:52 AM
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Sample size in football IS tiny compared to say baseball but after 16-17 games, IMO, a team has pretty much shown what it is made of. When a season starts, I don't even look at team stats till there is at least 4 or 5 games to work with.
We've all heard the expression "defense wins championships". That may have been truer a few years ago but not so much these days. Don't get me wrong, a good defense surely helps but just a competent defense can keep you in games if you have a good to great offense. Of the remaining 8 teams in the playoffs, here's where the remaining teams rank in defense , yds/game: 2. San Francisco 4. Baltimore 14. Minnesota 17. Kansas City 18. Green Bay 21. Tennessee 26. Seattle 28. Houston Note that #1 New England and #3 Buffalo are out along with 6 others from the top 10. -------------------------------- Here's the same group ranked by points allowed/game, defense: 3. Baltimore 5. Minnesota 7. Kansas City 8. San Francisco 9. Green Bay 12. Tennessee 19. Houston 22. Seattle A little different look, eh? Points allowed per game has more of the remaining competitors in the top 10 defensively. Some teams you can move the ball on but they get stingy in the red zone. The yds/game stat has been used as THE ranking stat for like ages but it doesn't tell the full story. Like all raw stats, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Calculated rankings, power rankings and new age metrics are fun to look at but I think I still prefer looking at the raw data.... So far, everything is pointing to a San Francisco/Baltimore Superbowl but sometimes one of the lower ranked teams goes on a hot streak and blows up all the models. We'll see how that works out this year...
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#35
01-19-2020, 08:55 PM
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It's San Francisco vs. Kansas City and early line has it as Pickem to Chiefs by 1½ in Super Bowl LIV.
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#36
01-19-2020, 11:17 PM
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Watching SF run makes me think they'll be just as difficult to stop on the ground as Tennessee was but you have to keep milking the clock and putting up points to beat the prolific KC offense. If I were to bet (and I don't), I would pick the 49ers straight up because they have the better all-around team but the Chiefs have the ability to erase any deficit and put the pressure on Garappolo to keep sustaining drives and putting up points.
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#37
01-20-2020, 03:23 AM
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Those Mahomes scrambles were just killer for the Titans yesterday just like they were against the Texans. No one expects him to run so, when a play breaks down, there are good chunks to be had.
I'll be rooting for the Niners as I find it hard to pull for Kelce/Hill and company....
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#38
01-20-2020, 09:27 AM
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Mahomes passing and the design of the offense eat up zone coverage. Teams end up playing lots of man with deep safeties to take away the most dangerous options. But that turns into Mahomes casually running down the field while the defense’s heads are still turned. There’s no real way to stop them, so you have to score and keep them off the field while scoring. I think they sometimes press when they don’t see the ball for a long stretch.
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#39
01-20-2020, 08:30 PM
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I thought it was bad awareness. There's what, 11 seconds or so left in the first half and Mahomes heads for the sidelines. They hope he'll run out of bounds and, instead of making sure he does, they allow him to scamper down the sidelines. Then a safety comes up with time clearly almost out for the half..no time for another play...and the safety goes for the strip instead of keeping Mahomes out of the end zone. Dumb, dumb dumb. Just put the QB on the turf and the half is over. Poor awareness. That play right there doomed Tennessee.
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